APBRmetrics

Mike G wrote:Wouldn't a more straightforward Wins formula just derive from Win% = .50 + RPM(Pythagorean) ?

Yes, good point. But the two approaches should be (roughly) mathematically equivalent . . . and I like being able to easily convert back and forth between WAR and WINS.

Crow and Mike, As the "culprit" behind both WAR and RPM Wins (different metrics), I'll do my best to address the important questions you've raised about them. First, we published WAR (wins above replacement-level) for the 2013-14 and 2014-15 seasons, but this season switched to RPM Wins, w...

JE and I may not fully agree on this, but my own feeling is that in most contexts the best means of comparing the relative overall impacts of two players is look at their related WAR (wins above replacement-level) ratings, also given on the main RPM page. WAR can be thought of as reflecting the esti...

Not a huge fan of race-oriented NBA analyses, but I have long wondered if there might not be a pro-white bias in the NBA draft (at least among a subset of teams). Presumably, one could easily uncover salient historical data by looking at the expected value of each draftee's future NBA performance (R...

After all, when we look at other advanced metrics (e.g., true shooting %), we never adjust for coaching effects . . . I feel like we should, though. And obviously adjust for who you're playing with, too. Does Belinelli shoot 46% on 3-pointers on average NBA team? Does Stephenson grab 6 DReb/game on...

I think you can just divide the coach rating by 5 to get the impact of the coaches' rating on the player rating. That certainly sounds plausible, but it's ultimately an empirical question, right? For example (whenever you have a few minutes to spare), I think it would be informative to see a compar...

Great stuff as always, Jerry, and I especially like the use of PbP-derived metrics. Two quick thoughts, though, on potential improvements: 1) it looks like you've got ~20 IV's in the model right now (a large number), and there's a good chance that some IVs are redundant (vis-a-vis DV variability) an...

I'm pretty confident that most teams (maybe 5-6 stragglers?) now have some sort of inhouse rapm capability, and/or purchase player values from an outside consultant of some sort. Do you have any evidence - e.g., conversations with team insiders, Sloane chatter, etc - or is that just conjecture? As ...

Thanks, Crow. That wasn't meant as any sort of comprehansive list, which (as you note) would certainly have to include teams like Cleveland and NY, as well as Portland. And then there are the other dozen or so teams that have advanced analytic staff that are certainly capable of generating APM-based...

Hi All, While talking with a sports editor for a national publication today, I mentioned in passing that a number of NBA teams now have the in-house capability of generating adjusted plus-minus (APM) numbers in some form (whether it be APM, RAPM, xRAPM, ASPM, etc.). In fact, I suspect the number of ...

kpascual, Thanks for this fascinating breakdown. Do the posted expected values (points per shot) incorporate the free throws that ensue (probabilistically) as a consequence of shot attempts and shot types from these various locations? If not, do you have the capability of computing and posting a sim...

This EvanZ post discusses defensive pressure and play type: http://www.d3coder.com/thecity/2012/10/11/hand-down-man-down-new-source-of-nba-data-reveals-critical-detail-for-more-effective-shot-defense/ Thanks, Jacob: that's an interesting step in the right direction. I suspect the only way to truly ...

Yes, I'm interested in finding the expected value - as close as can possibly be estimated - for any given shot attempt. Presumably, the most salient variables are: shot distance, shot type, play type, and proximity of defender(s). What, for example, is the expected value of a closely contested 3-poi...

Hi All, Has anyone ever determined the true expected value (either as PPP or TS%) of each shot attempt as a fuction of: (a) location on the floor; (b) shot type (floater, pull-up j, dunk, etc); (c) play type (postup, p&r, cut, etc); and (d) proximity of defender? It would be nice, for any given ...

Thanks!!! It's been an amazing experience and I hope the "stats coach" concept takes hold around the league so my stats friends get to do it too! Maybe, um, Mike the Celtics might give it a try next season? Roland, Just want to add my voice to the well-deserved chorus of praise. Also a pu...