Search found 91 matches

by steveshea
Wed Jun 15, 2016 12:24 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: APBR-DraftExpress 2016 NBA Draft Project
Replies: 51
Views: 37736

Re: APBR-DraftExpress 2016 NBA Draft Project

I don't think I agree with this method of assessment. Generally, the highest picks go to the worst teams. It would be hard for any prospect to post a good BPM on the 76ers. If we judged prospects based on rookie BPM, we wouldn't think highly of Kevin Durant (-1.4) (as an example).
by steveshea
Sun Nov 22, 2015 1:46 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Big data space / movement analysis
Replies: 13
Views: 9532

Re: Big data space / movement analysis

2. Computing power is a major obstacle to this type of study. I'd think data availability is a bigger issue. Consider, for example the SportVU data set: Estimating 100 bytes per sample, 25 samples per second, 60 seconds per minute, 48 minutes per game, 41 home games per team per season, 31 NBA team...
by steveshea
Sun Nov 22, 2015 1:43 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Big data space / movement analysis
Replies: 13
Views: 9532

Re: Big data space / movement analysis

Trying to model the value of players' micro moves using sportvu coordinates is exactly what Chris and I have been doing (and I thought what this thread was about). We are very much interested in, for example, whether stationing a shooter in the weakside corner 3 keeps a help defender out of the lane...
by steveshea
Sat Nov 21, 2015 11:44 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Big data space / movement analysis
Replies: 13
Views: 9532

Re: Big data space / movement analysis

Basketball is not a... in the sense that we can judge each decision (pass, drive, etc) independent of what has happened before and more importantly, what will happen after. we can't? why not?... For example, we might see a guard on one wing swing the ball to a big man at the top of the key. That pa...
by steveshea
Fri Nov 20, 2015 1:17 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Big data space / movement analysis
Replies: 13
Views: 9532

Re: Big data space / movement analysis

Chris Baker and I have been looking at this. Here are some quick thoughts based on what we've encountered. 1. I like the suggestion in this thread to study the action/movements/formation of everyone based on the eventual success of the possession. Basketball is not a 1-step Markov process in the sen...
by steveshea
Mon Aug 03, 2015 11:40 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Flip Saunders' teams and 3ptas
Replies: 3
Views: 2962

Re: Flip Saunders' teams and 3ptas

For simplicity, call restricted area and 3-point FGA "good" shots. Call the rest "bad" shots. I looked at the ratio of bad to good for teams in the last 19 seasons. Flip's teams accounted for the top 3 and 5 of the top 7. Every 2014 team and 29 2015 teams shot more good than bad. Flip's 2015 TWolves...
by steveshea
Thu Jul 16, 2015 7:02 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Diversity vs. Quality
Replies: 11
Views: 6051

Re: Diversity vs. Quality

Perhaps, but this does make a lot of sense logically. The "best" will converge on the single best approach. Skills will overlap, be similar, mindsets will be similar. A variety of very dissimilar parts will, as Steve says, have far more synergy. Does this logic enhance your interest in metric blend...
by steveshea
Thu Jul 16, 2015 6:05 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Diversity vs. Quality
Replies: 11
Views: 6051

Re: Diversity vs. Quality

Excellent post. Chris Baker and I looked into this idea a bit in Chapter 8: Introducing Player Involvement Metrics of Basketball Analytics (2013). We introduced ways to measure the balance in a team's production. For example, does the team spread the assists or is one player largely responsible for ...
by steveshea
Fri Jun 05, 2015 7:35 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: APBR-DraftExpress 2015 NBA Draft Project
Replies: 277
Views: 94466

Re: APBR-DraftExpress 2015 NBA Draft Project

Follow-up submission: CPR ratings are not a “draft in this order” list. No objective model should be used in that fashion because no model can account for everything that a team must consider when making their selections. The value in a draft model is highly dependent on how well its results can be ...
by steveshea
Fri Jun 05, 2015 6:13 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Checking in on Celtics lineup usage (and other teams)
Replies: 110
Views: 124898

Re: Checking in on Celtics lineup usage (and other teams)

Lineup entropy might be of some use here in understanding how coaches use/vary lineups. A while back, I found some evidence that low lineup entropy in one season (more consistency in lineups) led to early season success the following year. http://www.basketballanalyticsbook.com/2013/12/01/lineup-ent...
by steveshea
Fri Jun 05, 2015 6:04 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Hot Hand
Replies: 20
Views: 18084

Re: Hot Hand

For those interested, I published an article on the existence of hot hands in the 3-point competition (and home run derby) a couple years ago.

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1 ... 9/abstract
by steveshea
Mon May 25, 2015 8:11 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: APBR-DraftExpress 2015 NBA Draft Project
Replies: 277
Views: 94466

Re: APBR-DraftExpress 2015 NBA Draft Project

I think pace is an issue also. For Joseph Young to be rated almost as highly as Frank Kaminsky at the same age is a pretty big red flag. For him to be rated higher than Delon Wright seems almost criminal. I'm curious - using your methodology - how the Iona stars would rate. Or maybe the BYU stars. ...
by steveshea
Sat May 23, 2015 10:53 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: APBR-DraftExpress 2015 NBA Draft Project
Replies: 277
Views: 94466

Re: APBR-DraftExpress 2015 NBA Draft Project

CPR gets around this by focusing only on each individual’s top 10 performances in each statistic. if a player plays well against non-conference teams, or mid-level teams, and poorly against top tiered teams, does this not affect their rating?... CPR has been effective projecting both high picks tha...
by steveshea
Fri May 22, 2015 11:01 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: APBR-DraftExpress 2015 NBA Draft Project
Replies: 277
Views: 94466

Re: APBR-DraftExpress 2015 NBA Draft Project

Seth Tuttle has a CPR of 1.7. He slides in 52nd (just ahead of Christmas) on my rankings.

Steve
by steveshea
Fri May 22, 2015 8:37 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: APBR-DraftExpress 2015 NBA Draft Project
Replies: 277
Views: 94466

Re: APBR-DraftExpress 2015 NBA Draft Project

Rank Player CPR 1 D'Angelo Russell 10.4 2 Jahlil Okafor 9.1 3 Karl Towns, 7.6 4 Kevon Looney 7.1 5 Bobby Portis, 6.5 6 Myles Turner, 6.4 7 Cameron Payne 6.2 8 Stanley Johnson 5.6 9 Tyus Jones 5.5 10 Justise Winslow 5.2 11 R.J. Hunter 5.1 12 Christian Wood 5.0 13 Terry Rozier 4.7 14 Jordan Mickey 4.3...