Search found 548 matches

by Statman
Thu Jul 13, 2017 5:09 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Opportunities for NBA teams
Replies: 10
Views: 8606

Re: Opportunities for NBA teams

I'm on retainer until June 1st, 2018, not allowed to discuss NBA FA & draft stuff with anyone (team or public). But, hey, if a WNBA team wants me to build a draft & player projection model & openly share all results with them, let's talk. I'm not going to do the build from scratch until I know there...
by Statman
Thu Jul 13, 2017 4:40 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Alts to draft models predicting performance in year 3-5
Replies: 1
Views: 2672

Re: Alts to draft models predicting performance in year 3-5

Most draft model tends to be designed to predict player performance, box score performance, in years 3-5. I recently saw Dean Demakis project total career player value. Other options? 1. Immediate performance 2. Rookie contract performance / cost ratio 3. Second contract performance / cost ratio 4....
by Statman
Sun Jun 25, 2017 12:54 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2017 NBA Draft Models
Replies: 36
Views: 21414

Re: 2017 NBA Draft Models

Congrats Dan! Really like your method for making playoff wins worth more. I normally just multiply by 2 before adding them to regular season wins, but, based on your data, it seems like that might not be putting enough weight in the importance of the playoffs still? Yeah, I tinkered with a few appr...
by Statman
Sat Jun 24, 2017 1:59 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2017 NBA Draft Models
Replies: 36
Views: 21414

Re: 2017 NBA Draft Models

DX can do and not do what it wants but is it looking to do some version of a draft analytic model article like the past couple of years? Anybody offer them stuff or still plan to? Not much time left. I don't think so. The pendulum publicly on twitter seems to have swung back to almost solely talkin...
by Statman
Mon Jun 12, 2017 1:40 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2017 NBA Draft Models
Replies: 36
Views: 21414

Re: 2017 NBA Draft Models

DX can do and not do what it wants but is it looking to do some version of a draft analytic model article like the past couple of years? Anybody offer them stuff or still plan to? Not much time left. I don't think so. The pendulum publicly on twitter seems to have swung back to almost solely talkin...
by Statman
Sat Jun 10, 2017 3:27 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Pelicans
Replies: 15
Views: 11375

Re: Pelicans

I've been thinking about the Pelicans a lot over the past couple days and wanted to put this out there for some thoughts. Let's think about two hypothetical deals. 1) If the Pelicans offered Anthony Davis to the Celtics, how much could they get? 2a) If the Pelicans offered DeMarcus Cousins to the l...
by Statman
Sat Jun 10, 2017 3:17 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Sketching a multi-year player value model
Replies: 3
Views: 2744

Re: Sketching a multi-year player value model

I was focused on player already in the league; but, sure, it could / should be done for rookies too. The majority of the players in my projection model are NBA players. NBA data (regular season w/ it's 82 games & playoffs) is the majority of the data - G League, D1, & usually summer league data is ...
by Statman
Sat Jun 10, 2017 3:02 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: BPM - RPM Blend
Replies: 15
Views: 13258

Re: BPM - RPM Blend

I am again looking at blends. I think I'll go with just a blend of BPM and RPM but I might make it broader in a later edition. This time I am going to do an offensive blend, one for defense, then a roll-up. My initial thought are to use blends of 60% OBPM plus 40% ORPM and 35% DBPM plus 65% DRPM to...
by Statman
Sat Jun 10, 2017 2:55 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Sketching a multi-year player value model
Replies: 3
Views: 2744

Re: Sketching a multi-year player value model

A player has projected impact value of x1 in year 1, x2, x3, x4 or x4 and beyond per game / year considering expected minutes played. Actual or projected salary of y1 to y4. A retention probability of z1 to z4 (only worries about involuntary loss). Find x, y, z values for expected median replacemen...
by Statman
Wed Jun 07, 2017 4:04 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Executives & Titles
Replies: 4
Views: 3309

Re: Executives & Titles

To be fair, the prospect of anyone outside of Golden State winning a title in the next 3 years is pretty dim. I think both GMs are good at what they do and not winning a title won't invalidate that. As much as winning a chip is the goal, being a consistently good team that also can make the owner m...
by Statman
Wed Jun 07, 2017 3:42 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Mavs
Replies: 3
Views: 2590

Re: Mavs

Slightly related. Hey Mavs, let's talk. Hire me, you absolutely would never regret it. I'm already interviewing for jobs that would force me to relocate from DFW. This is silly. I should have been working for you guys two years ago. I admit, I probably haven't marketed myself nearly well enough, & I...
by Statman
Tue May 23, 2017 2:22 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Statsketball: An Advanced Stats Primer
Replies: 6
Views: 4447

Re: Statsketball: An Advanced Stats Primer

jgoldstein34 wrote:I'm a little surprised there's no mention of RPM or BPM at the end. Win Shares and PER are great, but even the author kind of admits they're outdated.
The article is 3.5 years old.
by Statman
Fri May 19, 2017 3:16 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2017 draft analytics
Replies: 71
Views: 37105

Re: 2017 draft analytics

If I'm Boston (and if life were a video game), I'm trying to trade Isaiah in the package for Butler. That would lessen the amount of assets that need to be included on the way out while also helping the logjam in the back court. I can't imagine them doing this, but now is the perfect time to cash i...
by Statman
Wed Apr 26, 2017 4:02 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Trade Paul George
Replies: 45
Views: 29697

Re: Trade Paul George

Winshares per 48 lower than it has been since rookie year (minus the season with just a few games) and only modestly above average. BPM lowest since rookie year. RPM estimate fell almost 50% from last season. That's very strange. His 2FG%, 3FG%, eFG%, FT%, and TS% were all career highs, and by a go...
by Statman
Sat Apr 22, 2017 10:56 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Kings/Beech
Replies: 26
Views: 14510

Re: Kings/Beech

The 3.0 doesn't refer to the 3rd time for Vivek (rather some sort of claim that it is a third generation approach to drafting). Vivek's group purchased the Kings after the 2013 season. Ah, ok, I was just confused I guess. One thing I distinctly remember is wondering how they were going to have some...