APBRmetrics

I'm on retainer until June 1st, 2018, not allowed to discuss NBA FA & draft stuff with anyone (team or public). But, hey, if a WNBA team wants me to build a draft & player projection model & openly share all results with them, let's talk. I'm not going to do the build from scratch until I know there...

Most draft model tends to be designed to predict player performance, box score performance, in years 3-5. I recently saw Dean Demakis project total career player value. Other options? 1. Immediate performance 2. Rookie contract performance / cost ratio 3. Second contract performance / cost ratio 4....

Congrats Dan! Really like your method for making playoff wins worth more. I normally just multiply by 2 before adding them to regular season wins, but, based on your data, it seems like that might not be putting enough weight in the importance of the playoffs still? Yeah, I tinkered with a few appr...

DX can do and not do what it wants but is it looking to do some version of a draft analytic model article like the past couple of years? Anybody offer them stuff or still plan to? Not much time left. I don't think so. The pendulum publicly on twitter seems to have swung back to almost solely talkin...

DX can do and not do what it wants but is it looking to do some version of a draft analytic model article like the past couple of years? Anybody offer them stuff or still plan to? Not much time left. I don't think so. The pendulum publicly on twitter seems to have swung back to almost solely talkin...

I've been thinking about the Pelicans a lot over the past couple days and wanted to put this out there for some thoughts. Let's think about two hypothetical deals. 1) If the Pelicans offered Anthony Davis to the Celtics, how much could they get? 2a) If the Pelicans offered DeMarcus Cousins to the l...

I was focused on player already in the league; but, sure, it could / should be done for rookies too. The majority of the players in my projection model are NBA players. NBA data (regular season w/ it's 82 games & playoffs) is the majority of the data - G League, D1, & usually summer league data is ...

I am again looking at blends. I think I'll go with just a blend of BPM and RPM but I might make it broader in a later edition. This time I am going to do an offensive blend, one for defense, then a roll-up. My initial thought are to use blends of 60% OBPM plus 40% ORPM and 35% DBPM plus 65% DRPM to...

A player has projected impact value of x1 in year 1, x2, x3, x4 or x4 and beyond per game / year considering expected minutes played. Actual or projected salary of y1 to y4. A retention probability of z1 to z4 (only worries about involuntary loss). Find x, y, z values for expected median replacemen...

To be fair, the prospect of anyone outside of Golden State winning a title in the next 3 years is pretty dim. I think both GMs are good at what they do and not winning a title won't invalidate that. As much as winning a chip is the goal, being a consistently good team that also can make the owner m...

Slightly related. Hey Mavs, let's talk. Hire me, you absolutely would never regret it. I'm already interviewing for jobs that would force me to relocate from DFW. This is silly. I should have been working for you guys two years ago. I admit, I probably haven't marketed myself nearly well enough, & I...

jgoldstein34 wrote:I'm a little surprised there's no mention of RPM or BPM at the end. Win Shares and PER are great, but even the author kind of admits they're outdated.

The article is 3.5 years old.

If I'm Boston (and if life were a video game), I'm trying to trade Isaiah in the package for Butler. That would lessen the amount of assets that need to be included on the way out while also helping the logjam in the back court. I can't imagine them doing this, but now is the perfect time to cash i...

Winshares per 48 lower than it has been since rookie year (minus the season with just a few games) and only modestly above average. BPM lowest since rookie year. RPM estimate fell almost 50% from last season. That's very strange. His 2FG%, 3FG%, eFG%, FT%, and TS% were all career highs, and by a go...

The 3.0 doesn't refer to the 3rd time for Vivek (rather some sort of claim that it is a third generation approach to drafting). Vivek's group purchased the Kings after the 2013 season. Ah, ok, I was just confused I guess. One thing I distinctly remember is wondering how they were going to have some...