Search found 127 matches

by JoshEngleman
Thu Mar 23, 2017 5:31 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Saric rookie comparisons
Replies: 52
Views: 24528

Re: Saric rookie comparisons

I decided to finally make some changes that I had been meaning to try. Instead of just looking at a particular season, I'm applying the same weighting principles to each stat. For example, instead of just looking at Isaiah Thomas's 2016-17 TS%, I'm going with a a weighted TS% over the past 3 years. ...
by JoshEngleman
Wed Mar 22, 2017 8:37 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Saric rookie comparisons
Replies: 52
Views: 24528

Re: Saric rookie comparisons

This is so fascinating that I had to share it. I decided to take a look at Ben McLemore. Unsurprisingly, things looks bleak for Ben. The one silver lining on his entire list is C.J. McCollum. Buddy Hield showing up 6th is hilarious. I wonder much differently we would look at Ben if played 4 years at...
by JoshEngleman
Wed Mar 22, 2017 4:53 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: The new Nets- nyet net, yet
Replies: 5
Views: 2901

Re: The new Nets- nyet net, yet

Whitehead has big issues with shooting and turnovers but I can see some hope for development. Offensive rating has improved since all-star break but only from terrible to less terrible. Josh E., who does he compare closest to as a rookie? Hard guy to peg. He has a few guys on the list that definite...
by JoshEngleman
Wed Mar 22, 2017 4:18 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Saric rookie comparisons
Replies: 52
Views: 24528

Re: Saric rookie comparisons

Horford is "worth" more today than yesterday (using your file yesterday afternoon) because...? I think I understand you increased the value of wins in future years but it looks like they are still the same this season? Anything else change? Hmm, not sure what the difference could be. Maybe looking ...
by JoshEngleman
Wed Mar 22, 2017 4:04 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Saric rookie comparisons
Replies: 52
Views: 24528

Re: Saric rookie comparisons

Tim Hardaway Jr. will be an interesting guy this off-season. Using his comps, he has a shot to grow into a league average guy (based on this crude method, at least). $15M per year seems pretty reasonable this off-season. Using the table here, he'd be looking at 4 years, $68.4M. I just can't see a re...
by JoshEngleman
Wed Mar 22, 2017 3:51 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Saric rookie comparisons
Replies: 52
Views: 24528

Re: Saric rookie comparisons

Here's a look at your Horford example. I don't really think this current contract will be a problem, so long as he doesn't have a dramatic decline. If he declines naturally, I wouldn't expect him to pick up the 2019-20 Player Option, so he is effectively on a 2 year, $57M deal. http://i.imgur.com/7m...
by JoshEngleman
Wed Mar 22, 2017 2:10 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Saric rookie comparisons
Replies: 52
Views: 24528

Re: Saric rookie comparisons

I updated the file and added a few little things, namely an estimate for the next 4 years. Here's an example for Jeff Teague:

Image
by JoshEngleman
Tue Mar 21, 2017 10:47 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Saric rookie comparisons
Replies: 52
Views: 24528

Re: Saric rookie comparisons

The salary estimate for players is a feature that I think should get attention / use especially for upcoming free agents. Al Horford comes back as worth $18-20 mil. this season. Isiah Thomas closer to what Horford is making. The ever so important Andre Roberson question, $10-11 mil. I started looki...
by JoshEngleman
Tue Mar 21, 2017 10:45 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Saric rookie comparisons
Replies: 52
Views: 24528

Re: Saric rookie comparisons

The salary estimate for players is a feature that I think should get attention / use especially for upcoming free agents. Yeah, I wasn't totally comfortable with my assumptions, but I think we're in the neighborhood of $4M per win moving forward. Here's one for George Hill. Expanded to 25, added so...
by JoshEngleman
Tue Mar 21, 2017 9:19 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Saric rookie comparisons
Replies: 52
Views: 24528

Re: Saric rookie comparisons

DRPM and player tracking data won't go back that far. The options are to leave it out or maybe do a second file of just time that have them. While I can handle guys from 80s / 90s, I am generally more interested in more recent player comparisons. Last 5 year file could be good as second file. Thank...
by JoshEngleman
Tue Mar 21, 2017 9:03 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Saric rookie comparisons
Replies: 52
Views: 24528

Re: Saric rookie comparisons

I think that leaving it out won't matter too much. I definitely want to play around with the stats I'm using. Whether its trimming the list, or adding a few more stats that add context. I have added the file I use to my website, so for anyone that wants to download it, you can go here: http://joshen...
by JoshEngleman
Tue Mar 21, 2017 7:26 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Saric rookie comparisons
Replies: 52
Views: 24528

Re: Saric rookie comparisons

Using space isn't an issue to me. Immediately fully visible is easy. Curry having Parsons as a comp isn't "bad" but I consider Parsons as something of an empty calorie scorer. Not really empty, just less diverse a contributor than you might expect / want. Cuban might have gotten too excited in prin...
by JoshEngleman
Tue Mar 21, 2017 7:05 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Saric rookie comparisons
Replies: 52
Views: 24528

Re: Saric rookie comparisons

Thank you. Steven Adams with high comps to Tarik Black and C Fellacio? Could be signs of a massive overpay. Ferrell has Billups, Conley, Jet Smith... and a lot of meh backups. Seth Curry with high comp to Parsons? More damning of Parsons but not a name I wanted to see. The Adams contract seems like...
by JoshEngleman
Tue Mar 21, 2017 6:34 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Saric rookie comparisons
Replies: 52
Views: 24528

Re: Saric rookie comparisons

Oladipo http://i.imgur.com/Jn73Ln0.png Steven Adams http://i.imgur.com/62pH9Hb.png John Wall http://i.imgur.com/fWSBNnF.png Kyle Lowry http://i.imgur.com/wvLUeXH.png Yogi Ferrell http://i.imgur.com/9hILJWj.png Seth Curry http://i.imgur.com/FdFY1hL.png Andrew Wiggins http://i.imgur.com/lPUs1Rh.png
by JoshEngleman
Tue Mar 21, 2017 6:20 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Saric rookie comparisons
Replies: 52
Views: 24528

Re: Saric rookie comparisons

Zingis has a pretty weak imo comp list. I haven't seen enough from him on average to justify the current hype or mega expectations. He might get there but the evidence for it so far isn't that strong. I see it a bit differently. Tobias, KVH, Gay, Deng. All solid guys. KP has comparable stat lines t...