Search found 127 matches

by JoshEngleman
Sun Jul 02, 2017 9:35 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2016-17 Celtics
Replies: 113
Views: 72159

Re: 2016-17 Celtics

We're now up to 23 deals, $2958M AAV and 95.2 wins in 17/18. That puts us at $3.1M per win.
by JoshEngleman
Sun Jul 02, 2017 12:24 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2016-17 Celtics
Replies: 113
Views: 72159

Re: 2016-17 Celtics

Alright, I've loaded the "official" deals we have so far into a Google sheet. I'm on vacation right now, so I'm sure I'll miss one or two. The GP/MPG numbers can be tweaked. They were just a quick estimation on my part. As of now, we have 16 deals, 69.5 estimated wins and $221.7M in total AAV. That ...
by JoshEngleman
Wed Jun 28, 2017 5:56 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Rockets
Replies: 16
Views: 11280

Re: Rockets

Where was it reported that it was guaranteed Paul would leave? The Clippers could have paid him more than any other team. I realize money isn't always the most important factor for players of his age, but I don't recall reading anything that he was definitely gone for good once he opted out. I'm pr...
by JoshEngleman
Wed Jun 28, 2017 5:31 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Rockets
Replies: 16
Views: 11280

Re: Rockets

Gut reaction is this is a lose-lose trade. This seems like the kind of move that would work fine in a video game, but not in real life. It's impossible for this to be a loss for the Clippers. Paul said he was leaving. Getting Beverley, Dekker, Lou Williams and a pick is a great haul. They could eas...
by JoshEngleman
Wed Jun 28, 2017 4:34 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2016-17 Celtics
Replies: 113
Views: 72159

Re: 2016-17 Celtics

I still think the $/win estimates are being skewed by the huge leap in the salary cap last year. I would expect that to level off a bit once there is a greater sample of new contracts. Not to mention, teams aren't even obligated to spend up to the salary cap floor. The Sixers were using this workar...
by JoshEngleman
Wed Jun 28, 2017 3:59 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Rockets
Replies: 16
Views: 11280

Re: Rockets

https://twitter.com/WojVerticalNBA/stat ... 4700331008

Well, this is interesting. CP3 to Houston for Beverley, Lou Williams, Dekker and a 1st.
by JoshEngleman
Wed Jun 28, 2017 12:51 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Knicks
Replies: 13
Views: 9450

Re: Knicks

Welp, Woj just tweeted that Dolan is targeting Masai. That would be amazing for the Knicks. Hinkie could be interesting in Toronto.
by JoshEngleman
Wed Jun 28, 2017 12:20 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2016-17 Celtics
Replies: 113
Views: 72159

Re: 2016-17 Celtics

Just curious, what metric are you using for expected & actual wins (winshares, RPM wins, etc.)? Super basic stuff. It's a 50/50 split of WS and BPM. I just take everything I can get from Basketball Reference. Obviously they aren't the best metrics, but it gets me 95% of the way to a good answer wit...
by JoshEngleman
Wed Jun 28, 2017 12:15 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Knicks
Replies: 13
Views: 9450

Re: Knicks

Does anyone see this team jumping on the analytics movement now that Phil Jackson is out? Partially. I would be shocked to see someone like Hinkie end up there, because there's no way New York could handle the full tear down he would want to do, but I think this looks like the perfect fit for David...
by JoshEngleman
Tue Jun 27, 2017 8:24 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2016-17 Celtics
Replies: 113
Views: 72159

Re: 2016-17 Celtics

Gotcha. That approach makes sense. Thanks for the clarification. No problem. I just refreshed everything, just to double check. I'm using the real minutes played for '16-17, which isn't necessarily the best way to handle this, but I think the issues smooth themselves out over 127 guys. Contracts si...
by JoshEngleman
Tue Jun 27, 2017 8:15 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2016-17 Celtics
Replies: 113
Views: 72159

Re: 2016-17 Celtics

Salaries are truly out of control if Olynyk gets 15.8 million per year. His median RAPM rating is 0.72 so far in his career and he's averaged 20 MPG. Based on those numbers he's only been worth around 3.2 wins per season by my quick estimation (he had 3.54 RPM wins this year for comparison). The av...
by JoshEngleman
Tue Jun 27, 2017 7:42 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2016-17 Celtics
Replies: 113
Views: 72159

Re: 2016-17 Celtics

My salary model expects Amir to get paid ~$8.7M per year and Olynyk ~$15.8M per year. Those both seem a bit high to me, but around the range to expect. I think you're a little low on Amir. I see the deals that Gorgui Dieng and Ian Mahinmi signed in the past 18 months and see him more in line with a...
by JoshEngleman
Tue Jun 27, 2017 12:01 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2016-17 NBA Awards
Replies: 13
Views: 8369

Re: 2016-17 NBA Awards

Among players starting less than half their games, Eric Gordon was 24th in the league -- and 4th on his own team! Lou Williams, Montrezl Harrell, and Nene` had more than 3.8. With BPM of -1.4, his VORP was not top 50. PER of 13.1 was 60th. But he did have highest Pts/G (16.2) of any non-starter for...
by JoshEngleman
Mon Jun 26, 2017 8:21 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2016-17 Celtics
Replies: 113
Views: 72159

Re: 2016-17 Celtics

And M Brown and Tatum will be better, equal or worse in next 2 years? And doesn't Hayward have the same far worse in the playoffs syndrome? Amir is 30. Olynyk is 26. While Olynyk can conceivably get a little better, he's not exactly a freak athlete looking to put the pieces together. He is what he ...
by JoshEngleman
Mon Jun 26, 2017 8:03 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: BIG3 Stats
Replies: 4
Views: 3766

Re: BIG3 Stats

#FreeKwame