Search found 127 matches

by JoshEngleman
Mon Jun 26, 2017 8:03 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2016-17 Celtics
Replies: 113
Views: 72173

Re: 2016-17 Celtics

Amir, Olynyk to name two likely to walk. Great previous values. May be good values on next contract. I think both of those guys fall into a very specific problem. They likely can't be on the court as the playoffs progress. Both guys are great values for the regular season. They'd be good guys to ha...
by JoshEngleman
Wed Jun 21, 2017 8:45 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Near future for the Lakers?
Replies: 52
Views: 28834

Re: Near future for the Lakers?

The Lakers need to get really, really lucky. The need the Pacers to bail them out. If you can get them to take Randle, Deng, #27 and #28, you do it. Getting out from Deng is key. Trading Randle is also smart, as it would keep them from overpaying him next year. Even though it's a sunk cost, bringing...
by JoshEngleman
Wed Jun 21, 2017 8:20 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Knicks
Replies: 13
Views: 9450

Re: Knicks

This team is not very good, and they won't be very good for a long time. Get rid of literally everything you can. Sit down with Melo, figure out where he'd be willing to go and then just take the best offer you can get from any of those teams. Cross your fingers that you can flip Courney Lee to a co...
by JoshEngleman
Wed Jun 21, 2017 7:35 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Final rush of draft chat
Replies: 15
Views: 11043

Re: Final rush of draft chat

it's a cool tool, but i don't think most draft value charts consider the effect of max contracts i.e. i think it's better to have a player at 75 than one player at 55 and another player at 30 if both 75 and 55 are ending up with a max contract i'm referring to 5 and 30 moreso than 5 and 10, which i...
by JoshEngleman
Wed Jun 21, 2017 4:06 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Team Management: How Solid?
Replies: 29
Views: 18216

Re: Team Management: How Solid?

I don't think the Suns have any good prospects on their team, maybe Dragan Bender? I can't think of any that I'd trade a real asset for. I largely agree, although I sort of like Chriss. The Suns are in a weird place, in that, I don't think the guys their young guys have a ton of trade value, but I'...
by JoshEngleman
Wed Jun 21, 2017 3:33 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Knicks
Replies: 13
Views: 9450

Re: Knicks

I think this could be interesting for Philly, if Porzingis is really on the table. I wonder how interested Phil would be in Saric, Okafor & a future pick/two. Philly's own '18 & OKC's 2020. I realize that's a ton to give up, but Porzingis would about as well as possible. Fultz - X - Covington - Zing...
by JoshEngleman
Wed Jun 21, 2017 3:18 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Trade Paul George
Replies: 45
Views: 33103

Re: Trade Paul George

If the Pacers are determined to stay relevant, then the Kevin Love rumor is definitely what they should do. It's going to be difficult to get a really good asset back since no one expects George to return after this season. There's not that much surplus value in him at this point. It's all about whe...
by JoshEngleman
Wed Jun 21, 2017 2:55 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Nets
Replies: 11
Views: 7410

Re: Nets

Top 25 comps for Russell through '16-17. Not seeing anything that screams superstar, but this sort of group, plus his pedigree, could put him around league average in 2/3 years. That will be right in line with when he'll need to get paid. Further down his comp list, Jrue Holiday pops up a few times....
by JoshEngleman
Wed Jun 21, 2017 12:55 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Final rush of draft chat
Replies: 15
Views: 11043

Re: Final rush of draft chat

it's a cool tool, but i don't think most draft value charts consider the effect of max contracts i.e. i think it's better to have a player at 75 than one player at 55 and another player at 30 if both 75 and 55 are ending up with a max contract i'm referring to 5 and 30 moreso than 5 and 10, which i...
by JoshEngleman
Wed Jun 21, 2017 12:52 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: NBA Draft Pick Trade Value Charts
Replies: 23
Views: 13583

Re: NBA Draft Pick Trade Value Charts

Can you explain the last table? For example, what is the %max column representing, and also how did you determine how to weigh the picks at a particular %? Also how did you come up with the DiscWAR and TotalWAR values? The "%max" column is basically just a helper column to get to the "Weight" colum...
by JoshEngleman
Tue Jun 20, 2017 7:49 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: NBA Draft Pick Trade Value Charts
Replies: 23
Views: 13583

Re: NBA Draft Pick Trade Value Charts

Another piece to the puzzle would be how to value each season's performance. For example, if we are building a value chart, how much more should we value wins created in Year4 compared to Year1? Or is it the other way around? I feel as though there's a way to play with the data in the below screensh...
by JoshEngleman
Tue Jun 20, 2017 12:44 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: NBA Draft Pick Trade Value Charts
Replies: 23
Views: 13583

Re: NBA Draft Pick Trade Value Charts

I've been intrigued by draft value charts for a while now. I've played around with creating my own, but I always come back to the same question. What are we trying to measure? I think what I'm really looking for is two charts (or maybe the synthesis of two charts). One that measures expected minutes...
by JoshEngleman
Tue Jun 20, 2017 12:23 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: The race for the 2020 NBA title
Replies: 47
Views: 27676

Re: The race for the 2020 NBA title

I still think he could work for Philly. It could probably help lengthen his career, as he could dial back the MPG a bit, but the Fultz deal probably takes him off of the table. The Knicks would work, but there's no way he'd want to go there. Same goes for the Kings. If I'm Denver, I think I prefer M...
by JoshEngleman
Mon Jun 19, 2017 12:44 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Team Management: How Solid?
Replies: 29
Views: 18216

Re: Team Management: How Solid?

This is how I would rank each franchise's current management: Great: Spurs, Warriors, Cavs, Heat, Jazz, (5) Good: Raptors, Celtics, 76ers, Grizzlies, Trail Blazers, Nuggets , Thunder, Rockets(7) Average: Bucks, Pacers, Hawks, Mavs, Grizzlies, Suns, Timberwolves, Nets (7) Bad: Clippers, Wizards, Pis...
by JoshEngleman
Fri Jun 16, 2017 2:31 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: The race for the 2020 NBA title
Replies: 47
Views: 27676

Re: The race for the 2020 NBA title

sndesai1 wrote:don't have anything to add about 2020, but but most places seem to have the warriors at -180 to -220 for next season so somewhere in the 60-65% range
You can't just use the raw line, as these futures have a ton of juice built in. Here's the table based on 5Dimes.

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