Search found 127 matches

by JoshEngleman
Fri May 19, 2017 5:53 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Near future for the Lakers?
Replies: 52
Views: 29453

Re: Near future for the Lakers?

Now that they know they are keeping their 2019 pick, the Lakers should 100% wait on Paul George. Play the young guys for one more year, which also means you have one less year of the Deng/Mozgov/Clarkson deals. $44m per year for the next three years on those three guys is a death sentence. There is ...
by JoshEngleman
Fri May 19, 2017 5:36 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2017 draft analytics
Replies: 71
Views: 44021

Re: 2017 draft analytics

You wouldn't. There's basically no chance that deal happens. I just think the Celtics need to offload Isaiah. It depends what their goal is. If the goal is to beat LeBron in the next 2-3 years, no. They need his talent and they won't find comparable talent coming back. If the goal is to tear it dow...
by JoshEngleman
Fri May 19, 2017 4:34 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2017 draft analytics
Replies: 71
Views: 44021

Re: 2017 draft analytics

Why in the world would Chicago want IT? He's the same age (maybe older?) as Butler...if you're going to rebuild, you do it around youth. That would be an insane trade. I'm not saying it's a good deal. :) This gives the Bulls a way to press the reset button while also remaining "relevant". In theory...
by JoshEngleman
Fri May 19, 2017 4:15 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2017 draft analytics
Replies: 71
Views: 44021

Re: 2017 draft analytics

Why in the world would Chicago want IT? He's the same age (maybe older?) as Butler...if you're going to rebuild, you do it around youth. That would be an insane trade. I'm not saying it's a good deal. :) This gives the Bulls a way to press the reset button while also remaining "relevant". In theory...
by JoshEngleman
Fri May 19, 2017 3:46 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2017 draft analytics
Replies: 71
Views: 44021

Re: 2017 draft analytics

It's a shame, too. I would assume you could make that deal without including the 2018 Brooklyn pick. Something like Butler for Isaiah, Tyler Zeller and the 2019 Memphis pick. Or include Avery Bradley, if you don't want to pay him later. Problem is, I'm not sure they can do that deal AND sign Hayward...
by JoshEngleman
Thu May 18, 2017 6:41 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Pistons
Replies: 28
Views: 18698

Re: Pistons

So to clarify, is it that one "butthead" GM overpays one middling player, and it raises the potential salary of many more players? And does this lead team managements to believe that their options are either to seriously overpay some guys, or blow up the team and start over from the fragments? Basi...
by JoshEngleman
Thu May 18, 2017 5:58 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2017 draft analytics
Replies: 71
Views: 44021

Re: 2017 draft analytics

If I'm Boston (and if life were a video game), I'm trying to trade Isaiah in the package for Butler. That would lessen the amount of assets that need to be included on the way out while also helping the logjam in the back court. I can't imagine them doing this, but now is the perfect time to cash in...
by JoshEngleman
Mon May 15, 2017 7:40 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Pistons
Replies: 28
Views: 18698

Re: Pistons

Maybe Caldwell-Pope, but with the amount he's expected to get paid it'll be a tough sell to a team. Why is a player expected to get more than he's worth? Is he only worth this much to one team, specifically the Pistons? While I never, ever, ever indulge in trade speculation, I do find intriguing th...
by JoshEngleman
Fri May 12, 2017 6:46 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Raptors
Replies: 28
Views: 17583

Re: Raptors

I don't want to read too far into what Ujiri said, but I wouldn't be shocked to see them blow it up really. He has a history of not liking to settle on a team that isn't good enough to win a chip. Not sure how much trade value DeRozan has, but he's probably worth a decent 1st round pick and some fi...
by JoshEngleman
Sat Mar 25, 2017 6:54 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2017 draft analytics
Replies: 71
Views: 44021

Re: 2017 draft analytics

Question for anyone here that might be more familiar. I was trying to get data from National Statistical, but for some reason, their sign-up page is blank. They aren't active on Twitter, but it's clear from the homepage that the data is still being updated daily. Does anyone know what their deal is,...
by JoshEngleman
Thu Mar 23, 2017 11:17 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Saric rookie comparisons
Replies: 52
Views: 24528

Re: Saric rookie comparisons

I think we're actually on the same page. The $4M is more like a predictive number. That's around what we would expect teams to spend this off-season. The true $ spent on wins is likely around $3M per.
by JoshEngleman
Thu Mar 23, 2017 10:12 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Saric rookie comparisons
Replies: 52
Views: 24528

Re: Saric rookie comparisons

It all depends what you are trying to measure. When the season is over, it's really easy to see how much teams literally spent on this season's wins, but if we're trying to figure out contracts in the future, then we want to know what team's are actively spending on the open market. I think that $4M...
by JoshEngleman
Thu Mar 23, 2017 9:46 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Saric rookie comparisons
Replies: 52
Views: 24528

Re: Saric rookie comparisons

Just did a quick sense check. I went to Spotrac and grabbed all of the FA contracts signed before this season. I used the AAV just to make things a bit quicker. 129 guys signed for a total of $1.12 billion. I pro-rated my numbers through a full season for simplicity sake. The 129 guys are expected t...
by JoshEngleman
Thu Mar 23, 2017 9:10 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Saric rookie comparisons
Replies: 52
Views: 24528

Re: Saric rookie comparisons

Combo of a few things. I had tried to dive into calculating the $/win a while back to deal with the big cap spike, so I used that as a baseline. I originally had it as $3.5M, but I was seeing higher numbers everywhere else. 538's Carmelo projections are using ~$5.1M, which felt way too high. I was c...
by JoshEngleman
Thu Mar 23, 2017 6:42 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Saric rookie comparisons
Replies: 52
Views: 24528

Re: Saric rookie comparisons

Here's what I have now for KCP. I don't think he'll have any problem getting $20M/per next year, and that opinion has nothing to do with these sim scores. Someone is going to give him a big offer sheet.

Image