Search found 224 matches

by bbstats
Tue May 31, 2011 5:04 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: APBR Retrodiction Challenge for Summer 2011
Replies: 74
Views: 28313

Re: APBR Retrodiction Challenge for Summer 2011

I'm game! I'll just use my statistical prediction of RAPM...

I bet Daniel's wins since his inherently predicts future performance.
by bbstats
Sun May 29, 2011 5:47 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2011 Finals - Mia vs Dal
Replies: 83
Views: 25943

Re: 2011 Finals - Mia vs Dal

Cool stuff! Looks pretty similar to my per-100-(O&D)advanced-stats SPM (which I regressed against RAPM).
by bbstats
Fri May 27, 2011 2:37 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2011 Playoff summaries
Replies: 59
Views: 23768

Re: 2011 Playoff summaries

If anyone wants to "estimate" (R)APM from the playoffs, I made a quick regression using 3-yr RAPM and 3-yr advanced stats. Offense had an R^2 of .6, Defense of .4. I combined the two sets of coefficients, however. All variables were at p<.05 Intercept is zero. coefficient value TRB% 3.282424852 ORB%...
by bbstats
Wed May 25, 2011 1:34 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Adjusted Player Pairs
Replies: 24
Views: 15048

Re: Adjusted Player Pairs

Maybe it would be (more) beneficial to show (Adj.Pair.Value - SumRapm(p1,p2)) ? So that its telling us something new...
by bbstats
Sun May 22, 2011 1:04 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Appr. 5.x year reg. adj. +/- (J.E., 2010)
Replies: 127
Views: 38060

Re: Appr. 5.x year reg. adj. +/- (J.E., 2010)

Sorry if this is slightly/very OT, but I keep wondering: Would there be any benefit to running a brute-force solver (like Excel's new evolutionary algorithm) that specifically tends towards low Standard Errors for player values? Is this essentially what RAPM does? That is, to set up the equation to ...
by bbstats
Mon May 02, 2011 3:44 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Regularized Adjusted team ratings
Replies: 5
Views: 4257

Re: Regularized Adjusted team ratings

Interesting...this puts the Celtics way lower than my lineup-level playoff estimate based on RAPM(they're 2nd)
by bbstats
Sat Apr 30, 2011 5:45 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Appr. 5.x year reg. adj. +/- (J.E., 2010)
Replies: 127
Views: 38060

Re: Appr. 5.x year reg. adj. +/- (updated with coaching,foul

Totally voted for Asik on the IBBA's.
by bbstats
Sat Apr 30, 2011 5:37 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Who Is More Productive
Replies: 28
Views: 17287

Re: Who Is More Productive

Xkonk, like I mentioned in my post, the 2011 RAPM numbers are deflated. Further, a regression equation with an R^2 of .45 (more importantly that it's low-sloping)is going to deflate even further in predicting. If all you want to do is predict offensive output via ORTG & usage, such an equation would...
by bbstats
Sat Apr 30, 2011 3:05 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Who Is More Productive
Replies: 28
Views: 17287

Re: Who Is More Productive

Sorry, it was just an extra parenthesis. And it's not a very long study so there's lots of noise, to be sure.
by bbstats
Fri Apr 29, 2011 9:05 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Who Is More Productive
Replies: 28
Views: 17287

Re: Who Is More Productive

Jumpin in on this party a bit late, but here's how I feel: The best correlation I could find between Offensive Rating, Usage, and Offensive Regularized Plus-Minus was the following Use 1) ORTG x Usg% and 2) Usg% Where #1 has a positive correlation, and #2 has a negative correlation. The simple one-y...
by bbstats
Tue Apr 26, 2011 2:36 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Appr. 5.x year reg. adj. +/- (J.E., 2010)
Replies: 127
Views: 38060

Re: Appr. 5.x year reg. adj. +/- (updated with coaching,foul

Regularized adjusted minus/plus?
:lol:


J.E. - you're well on your way to the Grand Unified Theory of basketball! Congrats.
by bbstats
Mon Apr 25, 2011 1:50 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Appr. 5.x year reg. adj. +/- (J.E., 2010)
Replies: 127
Views: 38060

Re: Appr. 5.x year reg. adj. +/- (updated with coaching,foul

Hmm....Lebron, Lebron, Lebron... I don't think that ridge regularization can precisely take into account altered distribution of possession usage (i.e. Cleveland Lebron vs. Miami Lebron). Can anybody think of theory to resolve this? This most certainly decreases the predictive power of RAPM on lineu...
by bbstats
Sat Apr 23, 2011 4:11 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Appr. 5.x year reg. adj. +/- (J.E., 2010)
Replies: 127
Views: 38060

Re: Appr. 5.x year reg. adj. +/- (updated with coaching,foul

Hey, now Bron-Bron's better than Bosh. It's perfect!! /I Kid As an aside: I really wish I understood regularization better (because I love the concept/results!). Every time I've tried to figure it out/do it on my own, I've been stumped. I only readily found one book containing the subject in my enti...