Search found 224 matches

by bbstats
Wed Feb 25, 2015 6:15 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Predictions 2014-2015
Replies: 265
Views: 286248

Re: Predictions 2014-2015

Holy crap. If this were Survivor, I'd be picking out my walking-the-plank attire. What's interesting is how well he's doing and how his win predictions were so low: a bunch of teams in the west at 51 wins and only two in the mid-50's. What really helped is that his projections stayed away from the ...
by bbstats
Wed Feb 25, 2015 3:51 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Predictions 2014-2015
Replies: 265
Views: 286248

Re: Predictions 2014-2015

I used RPM projections yep. FiveThirtyEight used RPM as well.

Only non-one-number-adjustment I used was a lazy one for Usage%.
by bbstats
Tue Feb 10, 2015 2:08 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Proof of Diminishing returns on Rebounds, USG-EFF, and more
Replies: 28
Views: 21288

Re: Proof of Diminishing returns on Rebounds, USG-EFF, and m

3 things

1) THANK YOU for doing this.

2) Is this the expectation based on DeanO's ORTG and DRTG? I'm assuming that these are the averages at each point along the X-axis...in real life I don't think we'd see a 99% R^2 prediction (or retrodiction) w/ DRTG


3) Can you test this with Wins Produced?
by bbstats
Fri Jan 30, 2015 1:27 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: My side-project: recappd.com
Replies: 17
Views: 14160

Re: My side-project: recappd.com

Nice site!

Put in TS% and I'll link to it, all the time.
by bbstats
Wed Dec 03, 2014 8:08 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Predictions 2014-2015
Replies: 265
Views: 286248

Re: Predictions 2014-2015

OKC: Lack of Russell "Greatest of all time" Westbrook has hurt pretty much everyone's projections. SAC: I got nothin'. This year's Phoenix. CHA: Think I did OK on them. No MKG has definitely damaged their record. TOR: OK, maybe also this year's Phoenix. MIN: No Rubio is killing the +/- based project...
by bbstats
Tue Dec 02, 2014 6:22 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Predictions 2014-2015
Replies: 265
Views: 286248

Re: Predictions 2014-2015

Really interested to see how RWB's return impacts future results here.
by bbstats
Mon Nov 24, 2014 3:45 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Predictions 2014-2015
Replies: 265
Views: 286248

Re: Predictions 2014-2015

Oh! I was thinking '14 Pyth was '15 Pyth :-D
by bbstats
Mon Nov 24, 2014 3:00 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Predictions 2014-2015
Replies: 265
Views: 286248

Re: Predictions 2014-2015

Whoa. 2nd-to-last place?

I blame Boogie.

EDIT: Though my W totals are based on schedule so measuring them against Pyth is probably skewing it slightly?
by bbstats
Thu Oct 30, 2014 1:32 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Predictions 2014-2015
Replies: 265
Views: 286248

Re: Predictions 2014-2015

My predictions correlate LEAST with BobboFitos'.

CRAP!
by bbstats
Mon Oct 27, 2014 2:42 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Predictions 2014-2015
Replies: 265
Views: 286248

Re: Predictions 2014-2015

Can't tell if anybody's keeping track of this like prior years? Anywho, here's my updated numbers: CLE 60.0 GSW 56.9 LAC 56.4 SAS 55.1 OKC 55.0 DAL 53.6 MEM 52.1 TOR 47.1 CHI 47.0 WAS 46.7 HOU 46.6 POR 46.2 MIA 45.1 ATL 41.3 IND 41.0 PHO 40.2 NOP 40.0 CHA 38.7 DET 38.2 DEN 37.0 BRK 37.0 UTA 35.7 MIN...
by bbstats
Fri Oct 24, 2014 3:36 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Predictions 2014-2015
Replies: 265
Views: 286248

Re: Predictions 2014-2015

Wins Created = Wins Above Average + 20% x 0.500 x Minutes/48 (then force-fit to pythagorean wins) where Wins Above Average = 82x(Normdist function of x=projected RPMxMinutes%, avg=0, stdev=12.247, cumulative=1)-41 So I just ran the following fix http://i.imgur.com/3UzlGXa.png and the Warriors jumped...
by bbstats
Thu Oct 23, 2014 9:10 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Predictions 2014-2015
Replies: 265
Views: 286248

Re: Predictions 2014-2015

Apologies for not including McAdoo and perhaps others, but here's where my GSW win total comes from (Though, below a certain minute%, players are gradually forced to roughly -3):

Image
by bbstats
Thu Oct 23, 2014 3:11 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: The Missing Piece of the Three Pointer Debate
Replies: 5
Views: 2980

Re: The Missing Piece of the Three Pointer Debate

A simple response would be for someone (Evan??) to figure out the PPP of a possession with at least 1 2PA vs PP of a poss with at least one 3PA.
by bbstats
Thu Oct 23, 2014 2:56 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Predictions 2014-2015
Replies: 265
Views: 286248

Re: Predictions 2014-2015

Here's mine, based on RPM once again. Tm Wins CLE 60.2 LAC 56.9 GSW 56.0 SAS 55.3 OKC 55.2 DAL 52.0 MEM 51.0 CHI 47.4 HOU 47.2 TOR 47.1 WAS 46.7 POR 46.4 MIA 45.7 IND 42.0 ATL 41.4 PHO 40.3 NOP 40.1 CHA 38.7 DET 38.2 DEN 37.1 BRK 36.0 MIN 35.2 UTA 34.9 NYK 31.7 SAC 29.3 BOS 29.0 ORL 28.2 MIL 25.3 LA...
by bbstats
Fri Oct 03, 2014 5:50 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Predictions 2014-2015
Replies: 265
Views: 286248

Re: Predictions 2014-2015

My projections also strongly favor Minnesota to get the over.