Search found 224 matches

by bbstats
Mon Jul 21, 2014 6:54 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Prediction of team with biggest win total increase?
Replies: 20
Views: 12465

Re: Prediction of team with biggest win total increase?

My RPM projections have an improved Irving/Thompson, decent minutes from Wiggins, huge Bennett improvement (from nearly worst to "pretty bad").
I have Varejao producing slightly less this season (injury and RPM decline are probably).

Mike Miller should also contribute some above "replacement level."
by bbstats
Mon Jul 14, 2014 1:53 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Prediction of team with biggest win total increase?
Replies: 20
Views: 12465

Re: Prediction of team with biggest win total increase?

I'm going to go out on a limb here and say the Cleveland Cavaliers.

Currently projecting 55 vs last year's 33.

A distant second in my current projections is Milwaukee, 28.5 over last year's 15.
by bbstats
Thu May 08, 2014 6:50 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Correlation between team Clutch play
Replies: 6
Views: 5083

Re: Correlation between team Clutch play

I'm in agreeance with this.

Seems to agree with what we already know about teams performing better when they're down.

Here's a fun DeanO article that brushes on the subject, though indirectly: http://www.rawbw.com/~deano/articles/aa052097.htm
by bbstats
Fri Apr 11, 2014 2:50 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Adjusting defense by using offensive results?
Replies: 5
Views: 3663

Re: Adjusting defense by using offensive results?

I like this idea. But what exactly does this "adjustment" tell us?

Basically just an adjustment to give us a better look at how teams fare in half-court sets?
by bbstats
Tue Apr 08, 2014 5:41 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 14 Year Average RAPM Dataset
Replies: 65
Views: 62882

Re: Statistical +/-

Looks useful for SPM development...but.........why is KD +1?
by bbstats
Tue Apr 08, 2014 2:27 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Well, well, well...
Replies: 42
Views: 21078

Re: Well, well, well...

Very interesting that this is multi-year. Exciting stuff all around though.

I'm with Kevin's analysis (on ESPN insider) that Nick Collison is being overrated by +/- stats for RPM. (I have some ideas on why this is happening and how to fix it but I don't want to derail the discussion.)
by bbstats
Mon Apr 07, 2014 8:02 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Well, well, well...
Replies: 42
Views: 21078

Re: Well, well, well...

My guesses

1) This is NOT multi-year and is therefore less stable, thus explaining low #s for certain players
2) ESPN / everyone decided to make it one-year so that it would be a little more concise and less confusing
by bbstats
Thu Apr 03, 2014 8:27 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Adjusted PPS, with a twist(influence on teammates' shot)
Replies: 7
Views: 4632

Re: Adjusted PPS, with a twist(influence on teammates' shot)

This is REALLY awesome. Helps us articulate FG defense well. Question though: is this PPS by the "TS%" definition? i.e Pts/(TmFGA + TmPossession-Ending-FTA) or Pts/(TmPossessions - TmTurnovers + TmOff.Rebs ) ? EDIT: One of the reasons I ask is because TS% does not accurately portray the ratio of pos...
by bbstats
Thu Apr 03, 2014 7:13 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Experimenting with Hollinger's PER and D.Oliver's O/DRtg
Replies: 9
Views: 5731

Re: Experimenting with Hollinger's PER and D.Oliver's O/DRtg

Hey there.

In my repeated tests, the best method for using DeanO's ORTG as an offensive SPM is to use ORTG x Usage and then an extra Usage term.
by bbstats
Tue Apr 01, 2014 9:29 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Value of Drawing Fouls
Replies: 6
Views: 3327

Re: Value of Drawing Fouls

@nbo

I agree with the premise, but that sounds hard ish to measure.
by bbstats
Tue Apr 01, 2014 6:22 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Most Improved 2014
Replies: 35
Views: 22941

Re: Most Improved 2014

In case anyone was curious, Patty Mills leads the league in "2014 xRAPM minus 2013 xRAPM" at +5.6
by bbstats
Thu Mar 27, 2014 3:06 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 538 Basketball posts
Replies: 29
Views: 15541

Re: 538 Basketball posts

Neil's blog posts at basketball-reference are still my favorite. Innovative/creative/informative.
by bbstats
Thu Mar 27, 2014 12:27 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Players mislabeled as "busts?" Who am I missing?
Replies: 7
Views: 3989

Re: Players mislabeled as "busts?" Who am I missing?

I think this list is very funny because adjusted +/- *also* looks extra-favorably (though moreso) upon Collison and Bradley, and you're using WP (!). I will not use my posting power to hijack this thread into a discussion about WP...I will not use my posting power to hijack this thread into a discus...
by bbstats
Mon Mar 17, 2014 3:04 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2014 Draft Projection Models
Replies: 102
Views: 74533

Re: 2014 Draft Projection Models

Can you throw in PJ Hairston?
by bbstats
Mon Feb 24, 2014 5:11 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: The 'effect of being up X'
Replies: 36
Views: 33664

Re: The 'effect of being up X'

Have you considered using this as another RAPM variable (if it's linear)? That would go a long way in helping adjust player values for garbage time. Yes. This is already a variable in my current RAPM calculation. I still need to do some more research to find out whether it's a good idea to give les...