Search found 224 matches

by bbstats
Thu Feb 20, 2014 9:10 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: The 'effect of being up X'
Replies: 36
Views: 33664

Re: The 'effect of being up X'

This is awesome!

Have you considered using this as another RAPM variable (if it's linear)? That would go a long way in helping adjust player values for garbage time.
by bbstats
Mon Feb 17, 2014 5:29 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Predictions 2013-14
Replies: 176
Views: 109571

Re: Predictions 2013-14

Too late for me to join? Here's my terrible projections:

http://thebasketballdistribution.blogsp ... acets.html
by bbstats
Mon Feb 17, 2014 5:23 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Homecourt advantage of each NBA team
Replies: 2
Views: 2035

Re: Homecourt advantage of each NBA team

Is this (Home Avg MOV - Away Avg MOV) / 2 ?
by bbstats
Fri Feb 14, 2014 8:11 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Coach RAPM
Replies: 61
Views: 35832

Re: Coach RAPM

I second the idea of a zero-prior. Further, it would be helpful to *average* player development. KD and RWB are getting most of the bump here, but they get a ton more minutes. To see how coach x (or front office x) truly improves players, it might help to *NOT* weight by minutes played. Edit: Other ...
by bbstats
Wed Feb 12, 2014 5:18 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Coach RAPM
Replies: 61
Views: 35832

Re: Coach RAPM

It would be nice to assign the values by something simpler like "organization." Basically the exact same algorithm except the names would be the team, and but wouldn't change variables between coaching changes. We could then compare the two.
by bbstats
Tue Feb 11, 2014 10:14 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Kirk Goldsberry Article & Sloan Paper - Databall
Replies: 25
Views: 21564

Re: Kirk Goldsberry Article & Sloan Paper - Databall

Or, perhaps, you use APM results to figure out how to assign those values. That's an excellent idea. Perhaps even more logically, assign it a delta win-percent (or delta-win-probability weighted Points) since we're already in that sort of frame of reference. This would prevent scrubs from getting t...
by bbstats
Mon Feb 10, 2014 9:35 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Old Matchup Data
Replies: 1
Views: 1100

Re: Old Matchup Data

I've been looking for the same. I just really want pbp to play with! :)
by bbstats
Fri Feb 07, 2014 5:29 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Kirk Goldsberry Article & Sloan Paper - Databall
Replies: 25
Views: 21564

Re: Kirk Goldsberry Article & Sloan Paper - Databall

This sort of highlights the benefits of regression-style player rating systems: they don't really require *any* theory, and give us reasonable results. What professor Kirk has made here is 100% "theory-based," along the same vein as ORTG, DRTG, etc. I think the main issue here, as you all have been ...
by bbstats
Mon Jan 27, 2014 5:46 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Durant's On/Off Rates?
Replies: 6
Views: 3300

Re: Durant's On/Off Rates?

My data is a couple games old and estimates possessions, but with my new "indirect plus-minus" (an attempt to made an adjusted plus-minus that is more understandable), I have Durant's +/- as 8.2 points per 100 higher than we would expect given his teammates' statistical +/-. ON per 100: +7.2 SOS mod...
by bbstats
Wed Dec 11, 2013 7:03 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Top values on new metric called "Individual Player Values"
Replies: 105
Views: 44386

Re: Top values on new metric called "Individual Player Value

My little SPM and +/- blend, per 100: Player Team adjRTG 1 paul,chris lac 7.36 2 george,paul ind 7.04 3 james,lebron mia 6.73 4 davis,anthony nor 6.36 5 curry,stephen gsw 5.69 6 durant,kevin okl 5.37 7 love,kevin min 5.25 8 mills,patty san 4.63 9 drummond,andre det 4.51 10 nowitzki,dirk dal 4.49
by bbstats
Tue Nov 12, 2013 8:24 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: NBA Datasets 2013-14 Season
Replies: 8
Views: 3746

Re: NBA Datasets 2013-14 Season

Sounds fun!...am I missing something though? I don't see any data.
by bbstats
Wed Aug 21, 2013 8:10 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Doolittle's Rankings
Replies: 5
Views: 3081

Re: Doolittle's Rankings

I'm almost certain he uses RAPM, thus the high ratings for Drummond and low rating for Parker.
by bbstats
Tue Jul 16, 2013 2:29 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: RAPM aging curve
Replies: 22
Views: 27710

Re: RAPM aging curve

Jerry,

This is a pretty cool concept. Is everything still done in a "bayesian" updating in this iteration of RAPM? If so, I would guess that this graph could be used to represent year-to-year deltas.

If not, the deltas would be something more like Y-value(year1) minus Y-value(year2).
by bbstats
Mon Jul 15, 2013 10:46 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Houston Rockets Job Openings - Analyst and Intern
Replies: 19
Views: 15932

Re: Houston Rockets Job Openings - Analyst and Intern

d'oh! i could have learned SQL in that timeframe....
by bbstats
Tue May 14, 2013 9:11 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Adjusted Turnover Metric?
Replies: 4
Views: 2463

Re: Adjusted Turnover Metric?

I think what jaebradley is asking, is for a player's "0-points-possessions." As a function of player plays used, this is equal to (1-Floor%). Anyone got the formula for Floor%?