Search found 240 matches

by jgoldstein34
Mon Jan 15, 2018 9:02 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2017-18 team win projection contest
Replies: 184
Views: 133827

Re: 2017-18 team win projection contest

Updated mid-way through today (Results of Raptors-76ers and Pistons-Hornets included). All tracking a little bit worse. https://i.imgur.com/8g4EKhM.png 4 teams where no one's projection was within <3 compared to their currently projection: IND (Closest 3.1 away) MEM (Closest 3.8) CHO (Closest 5.5) B...
by jgoldstein34
Sun Jan 14, 2018 3:43 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Player Impact Plus-Minus
Replies: 6
Views: 6538

Re: Player Impact Plus-Minus

I feel like I've read there is a ton of issues in the pbp for Nike/Adidas stuff.
by jgoldstein34
Fri Jan 12, 2018 11:00 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Player Impact Plus-Minus
Replies: 6
Views: 6538

Re: Player Impact Plus-Minus

With the right data it absolutely could be! Especially the box-score only component.
by jgoldstein34
Mon Jan 08, 2018 9:31 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2017-18 team win projection contest
Replies: 184
Views: 133827

Re: 2017-18 team win projection contest

Update to the contest. Appears we all got a little bit worse in average error since the last update.

Image
by jgoldstein34
Wed Jan 03, 2018 5:55 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2017-18 team win projection contest
Replies: 184
Views: 133827

Re: 2017-18 team win projection contest

The spread on my projections is higher because B-R uses a lot of regression in their future game projections.
by jgoldstein34
Mon Jan 01, 2018 12:49 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2017-18 team win projection contest
Replies: 184
Views: 133827

Re: 2017-18 team win projection contest

Here's how my model has the contest compared to my own projections going into tonight's game:

Image

Just the average of all our projections would be in 2nd so far.
by jgoldstein34
Fri Dec 08, 2017 6:47 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Justin Jacobs
Replies: 3
Views: 3737

Re: Justin Jacobs

Justin is brilliant, this is a great hire.
by jgoldstein34
Sun Oct 15, 2017 7:09 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2017-18 team win projection contest
Replies: 184
Views: 133827

Re: 2017-18 team win projection contest

I think these are my final projections ATL 25.6 BOS 48.6 BRK 28.8 CHI 27.4 CHO 45.9 CLE 51.2 DAL 29.1 DEN 47.0 DET 41.4 GSW 65.0 HOU 58.1 IND 28.1 LAC 46.7 LAL 28.9 MEM 37.5 MIA 38.4 MIL 48.0 MIN 47.6 NOP 38.2 NYK 34.1 OKC 56.4 ORL 33.9 PHI 38.3 PHO 31.4 POR 42.1 SAC 20.9 SAS 53.0 TOR 49.2 UTA 41.5 ...
by jgoldstein34
Sun Oct 15, 2017 6:54 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2017-18 team win projection contest
Replies: 184
Views: 133827

Re: 2017-18 team win projection contest

Are we allowed to have multiple win projections? I have 5 that I'm developing: 1) that uses my own PM metric that I'm developing 2) an multiyear RPM-PTPM (Player Tracking Plus-Minus) blend 3) multiyear RPM 4) an adjusted multiyear RPM that weights offense more heavily 5) an adjusted multiyear RPM-P...
by jgoldstein34
Tue Jul 25, 2017 10:06 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Trade Value
Replies: 24
Views: 20543

Re: Trade Value

Sure, here's a link to how it estimates trade value for 2016-17 regular season: Link And here's a link I found for explaining how to calculate all the parts of it better: Link The general form of it actually seems okay, but I'd take issue more with the credits/approximate value equation and the year...
by jgoldstein34
Mon Jul 24, 2017 11:46 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Trade Value
Replies: 24
Views: 20543

Re: Trade Value

Found this formula for trade value recently. Seems alright for estimating it.
by jgoldstein34
Fri Jul 21, 2017 6:15 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Trade Value
Replies: 24
Views: 20543

Re: Trade Value

Just thinking out loud here, but what are all the variables you'd have to feed a model to teach it trade value? Team record Roster construction Cap space, now and future Age Some measure of player ability Player durability Contract How close a team is to winning a chip Player potential Draft picks F...
by jgoldstein34
Thu Jul 20, 2017 9:58 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Trade Value
Replies: 24
Views: 20543

Re: Trade Value

I've always thought of trade value as what can be reasonably expected in return, not necessarily what the player is individually worth. I haven't researched it, but it seems that the better a player is, the less % of that value you can reasonably expect in return in a trade. Similarly, the better va...
by jgoldstein34
Mon Jul 17, 2017 11:01 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Way-too-early 2017-18 Forecasts
Replies: 39
Views: 31009

Re: Way-too-early 2017-18 Forecasts

Oh I know, these aren't really a great indicator of where Vegas will end up. Suppose it was more the shock of seeing a line that high for Boston despite BetOnline's weird setup that got to me.
by jgoldstein34
Mon Jul 17, 2017 7:17 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Way-too-early 2017-18 Forecasts
Replies: 39
Views: 31009

Re: Way-too-early 2017-18 Forecasts

Here's how my current projections compare to the Vegas lines listed in the first post: http://i.imgur.com/QRhcXjb.png No clue why an oddsmaker, even a bad one, would have Boston valued so highly unless they're trying to sucker people into betting the over or something. I actually agree that the midd...