Search found 240 matches

by jgoldstein34
Tue Apr 04, 2017 6:58 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: The Grizzlies' $94 million gamble
Replies: 10
Views: 7017

Re: The Grizzlies' $94 million gamble

Mike G wrote:Why should they do that, if it means a weaker team?
I think not doing it makes them an even weaker team than doing it. You don't not sign Durant and Curry to whatever contracts they want to resign Iggy, even as good as Iggy has been.
by jgoldstein34
Tue Apr 04, 2017 1:54 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: The Grizzlies' $94 million gamble
Replies: 10
Views: 7017

Re: The Grizzlies' $94 million gamble

The Golden State Warriors already have a thin bench -- Durant likely opts out, gets another $5M/per, Curry gets $32M (?) + annual raises...is this the end of Iggy in GS? I think the Warriors bench is going to be very, very thin next year, to the point of, relative, concern. Might be the last year t...
by jgoldstein34
Tue Apr 04, 2017 4:22 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Best Point Guard of 2016-17?
Replies: 18
Views: 17039

Re: Best Point Guard of 2016-17?

I've noticed that peoples dislike of the Clippers, and by extension CP, and how much they complain about calls leads many to forget how incredible CP is. Last year, when Curry was a human flamethrower, was really the only time in his entire career that CP wasn't arguably the best PG in the league in...
by jgoldstein34
Sat Mar 25, 2017 1:59 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Tiny
Replies: 3
Views: 2578

Re: Tiny

Would be super cool, but unless Westbrook just has a crazy cold streak and Harden has a crazy hot streak it's not going to happen this year for Harden. On the flip side, I don't think there's really any way Westbrook can catch Harden in assists without some crazy streak from both.
by jgoldstein34
Sat Mar 25, 2017 1:54 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2017 draft analytics
Replies: 71
Views: 42754

Re: 2017 draft analytics

I guess picking Fultz #1 is the safe pick because he is a more traditional prospect, and my system has him #2 so it's not like he's some bad prospect that doesn't project well. As for the FT issues, I'm way more worried about it for Fultz than Ball. Ball shot 165/205 (80%) in his 2 high school years...
by jgoldstein34
Sat Mar 25, 2017 1:31 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2017 draft analytics
Replies: 71
Views: 42754

Re: 2017 draft analytics

Just getting started, but already seems like the blend of analytics models is doing the best by a hair. The correlation between actual rank, which is an average of Win Shares and VORP rankings, is 0.3802 for the analytic model average. For DraftExpress, it is 0.3768 which is close to how the analyti...
by jgoldstein34
Fri Mar 24, 2017 7:01 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2017 draft analytics
Replies: 71
Views: 42754

Re: 2017 draft analytics

I think most projection systems liked Simmons, but yeah scouts certainly liked him more than those systems. If I have time in the coming few days I'll see if I can dive into the scouts vs. system some more. After 2 years, we should at least see any clear misses/hits from one or the other, even if th...
by jgoldstein34
Fri Mar 24, 2017 6:58 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Saric rookie comparisons
Replies: 52
Views: 24188

Re: Saric rookie comparisons

Apologies for not being clear, best comps have lowest sim score in my system. So Bargani, Gay, Mirotic, Zingis are closest out of the recent ROY top 3 finishers. Besides Griffin being a decent comp, Davis and Cousins rated as pretty poor comps. Cousins was in the 87th percentile for similarity and D...
by jgoldstein34
Fri Mar 24, 2017 5:56 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Saric rookie comparisons
Replies: 52
Views: 24188

Re: Saric rookie comparisons

Looking at his top comps compared to top 3 ROY past 10 years: Top 5: Player SimScore Sim Percentile ------ ------ ------ Andrea Bargnani 0.256 .978 Rudy Gay 0.258 .976 Nikola Mirotic 0.268 .950 Kristaps Porzingis 0.274 .933 Blake Griffin 0.277 .925 Others of Note: Player SimScore Sim Percentile ----...
by jgoldstein34
Fri Mar 24, 2017 5:11 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2017 draft analytics
Replies: 71
Views: 42754

Re: 2017 draft analytics

Agreed, the amount he's likely to struggle to score is going to really turn casual fans off from him as a prospect if he isn't throwing multiple highlight passes every night.
by jgoldstein34
Fri Mar 24, 2017 4:32 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2017 draft analytics
Replies: 71
Views: 42754

Re: 2017 draft analytics

That's true. Maybe Fultz is seen as able to make any team good because he's a more traditional scoring PG, while Ball can make a good team great with his passing and thus is more useful in the right situation but perhaps not as useful in general. To me, Ball seems like a shorter Ben Simmons who can ...
by jgoldstein34
Fri Mar 24, 2017 4:27 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Saric rookie comparisons
Replies: 52
Views: 24188

Re: Saric rookie comparisons

How would you say your Wins Added metric varies most significantly from other major media metrics? Which one is it most like? I feel like it kills high turnover guys more than most metrics do. At some point I'll compare it to others just to see which it varies most with, but I'd wager it's closer t...
by jgoldstein34
Fri Mar 24, 2017 3:04 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2017 draft analytics
Replies: 71
Views: 42754

Re: 2017 draft analytics

My question is does anyone have a projection system that actually likes Fultz over Ball? I'm yet to see one, and I know Ball is helped by playing on a wildly better team, but I just don't see how Fultz is #1 currently on most boards above Ball. He's obviously very good, he passes the eye test and I ...
by jgoldstein34
Fri Mar 24, 2017 2:33 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Saric rookie comparisons
Replies: 52
Views: 24188

Re: Saric rookie comparisons

Finally got around to running my sim for Dario Saric, a handful of decent comps (Paul George, Luol Deng) in their, but mostly all role players or worse. http://i.imgur.com/7ezmR0E.png The wins metric there is my own per minute wins added stats with replacement level being .426 for some context. As f...
by jgoldstein34
Tue Oct 25, 2016 2:28 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2016-17 Team Win Projection Contest / Discussion
Replies: 213
Views: 168191

Re: 2016-17 Team Win Projection Contest / Discussion

First time entering! GSW 66.9 67 SAS 57.2 57 CLE 55.2 55 LAC 51.6 52 BOS 51.3 51 TOR 47.4 47 UTA 45.9 46 OKC 44.4 44 POR 43.9 44 CHA 43.6 44 HOU 43.6 44 ATL 43.0 43 MIN 42.5 42 IND 41.4 41 WAS 40.0 40 NOP 39.6 40 DET 39.5 40 CHI 38.9 39 DAL 37.9 38 ORL 37.8 38 MEM 37.0 37 MIA 36.5 37 SAC 35.9 36 DEN...