Search found 240 matches

by jgoldstein34
Sat Jul 15, 2017 4:26 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Way-too-early 2017-18 Forecasts
Replies: 39
Views: 31009

Re: Way-too-early 2017-18 Forecasts

Nurkic projects pretty poorly because he was terrible in his games in Denver last year and not great the year before that. He needs more than 20 decent games to have most models believe he's really that guy.
by jgoldstein34
Sat Jul 15, 2017 4:45 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Way-too-early 2017-18 Forecasts
Replies: 39
Views: 31009

Re: Way-too-early 2017-18 Forecasts

I have a regression model I use to project rookie performance, than adjust based on Summer League. Anyone is free to use it if they'd like: Link. It'll change until the end of Summer League, but easy enough to keep it up to date.
by jgoldstein34
Sat Jul 15, 2017 4:39 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Spacing Rating
Replies: 18
Views: 16625

Re: Spacing Rating

I think it would be defenses collapsing and being forced into extra rotations, but that's pretty tough for a casual fan to pick up on. I think spacing is really, really hard to attribute to one player. Similar to defense, it matters who the guy handling the ball is if you're a spot up shooter on the...
by jgoldstein34
Thu Jul 13, 2017 9:59 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Way-too-early 2017-18 Forecasts
Replies: 39
Views: 31009

Re: Way-too-early 2017-18 Forecasts

I think it's possible the 8th seed has 48-49 wins in the West, but that's at the very high end. While it's likely most West playoff teams would be 50+ win teams versus a normal conference, the West is way too stacked to expect that many 50 win teams. I think a lot of fans are going to be disappointe...
by jgoldstein34
Wed Jul 12, 2017 11:13 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Pelicans
Replies: 15
Views: 12641

Re: Pelicans

I have him worth even less than that, and he's not exactly an offensive player at all. I'd guess he's back, but he doesn't really address their scoring problem. He can space the floor a bit and defend, so with a solid backup PG (like the guy they just traded for a 2nd round pick Tim Frazier) he'd be...
by jgoldstein34
Wed Jul 12, 2017 4:31 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Thunder
Replies: 16
Views: 13072

Re: Thunder

I mean, he's a 1st round pick so I think they're limited to what they can offer him. As far as I can understand it, the Thunder would have to renounce his rights before agreeing to anything outside of the rookie scale and I don't think Ferguson would be in favor of that unless they offer him more mo...
by jgoldstein34
Wed Jul 12, 2017 3:39 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Thunder
Replies: 16
Views: 13072

Re: Thunder

I don't think he has signed yet, he'll rate at best as replacement so it's not a big miss lol.
by jgoldstein34
Tue Jul 11, 2017 11:30 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Thunder
Replies: 16
Views: 13072

Re: Thunder

Did you forget about Terrance Ferguson or do you just not project him to play at all?
by jgoldstein34
Tue Jul 11, 2017 11:22 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Pelicans
Replies: 15
Views: 12641

Re: Pelicans

My model is a little higher on them (just using your minutes to make comparison easier), but from my look at it they project to have next to no offense outside of Davis, Cousins, Jrue, and Crawford. They NEED someone else who can score.

Image
by jgoldstein34
Tue Jul 11, 2017 10:16 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Knicks
Replies: 13
Views: 9440

Re: Knicks

Yeah the Knicks did one thing right this summer when they got rid of Phil. But then they did a lot of bad things, so maybe Phil wasn't the only issue? *cough* owner *cough*
by jgoldstein34
Tue Jul 11, 2017 10:09 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Raptors
Replies: 28
Views: 17103

Re: Raptors

So Casey & DeRozan created a monster or slept while a monster was created. Seems like a lot of Coaches & GMs groove on "Stars" that get talked about. "I found or created a Star!!!" Over actual impact or RPM estimates of said. Owners bear culpability or responsibility for allowing this. Bit of both,...
by jgoldstein34
Tue Jul 11, 2017 9:55 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: TWolves?
Replies: 38
Views: 23715

Re: TWolves?

My model has them more around 53-55 wins but that's mostly because the metric I use just thinks their top end guys are better than yours does. Correct me if I'm wrong, but Talent is based mostly off WS/48, yes?
by jgoldstein34
Tue Jul 11, 2017 9:51 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Raptors
Replies: 28
Views: 17103

Re: Raptors

It's DeRozan's fault, the team has been better with him off the court for each of the past 5 seasons and only once in his career have they been better while he played. He's a fine regular season player, his play style and absolute lack of D and shooting kill the team come playoffs.
by jgoldstein34
Tue Jul 11, 2017 9:27 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Raptors
Replies: 28
Views: 17103

Re: Raptors

Curious for your win projections thus far Josh, do they all exist in the same world or is each unique to the team? I.e. will adding each team's win together equal 1230 or not. Given that the East is especially easy and the West especially hard, could shift each team one way or the other.
by jgoldstein34
Mon Jul 10, 2017 5:04 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Spacing Rating
Replies: 18
Views: 16625

Re: Spacing Rating

I really like you're idea for the allowed space and treating it as a plus-minus. It would effectively be looking at how the spacing changes with different offensive/defensive players to try and work out individual impact, yes?