Search found 23 matches

by RyanRiot
Tue Oct 09, 2018 1:29 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Player Box Score Projections
Replies: 11
Views: 12966

Re: Player Box Score Projections

Jacob Goldstein released PIPM projections earlier in summer, if I recall correctly. Might have an update later. See his twitter / check his archive site. Andrew Johnson has a PIPM / RPM blend at his twitter CountingBaskets and Nylon Calculus. Another set at SteadyLosing twitter, I think. Thanks for...
by RyanRiot
Mon Oct 08, 2018 5:23 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Player Box Score Projections
Replies: 11
Views: 12966

Player Box Score Projections

Hey everyone, I know we have the team win projection contest, and a lot of what goes into that is player value projections, but I was wondering what sources of player box score stats are publicly available. So far, I've found four: ESPN CBS NumberFire Hashtag Basketball Does anyone know of any others?
by RyanRiot
Sat Apr 14, 2018 6:39 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2017-18 team win projection contest
Replies: 184
Views: 133829

Re: 2017-18 team win projection contest

Obviously a great return to form for 538's preseason predictions, but how do we feel about their playoff predictions? Some of the probabilities they're giving look a little funky, probably due to underrating teams lile the Warriors and Cavs who've lost a bunch of regular season games to bad teams be...
by RyanRiot
Tue Oct 17, 2017 6:18 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2017-18 team win projection contest
Replies: 184
Views: 133829

Re: 2017-18 team win projection contest

So far, we have 12 entries plus 538, and we collectively predict 48 wins for the T-Wolves. Vegas concurs, at 47. But this team has under-won, relative to their season point-differential, for 10 straight seasons. Most or all of our 'systems' predict scoring margin, and translate that into wins, yes?...
by RyanRiot
Mon Oct 16, 2017 5:50 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2017-18 team win projection contest
Replies: 184
Views: 133829

Re: 2017-18 team win projection contest

Here's mine. Went with 60% RPM/BPM blend, 30% implied Vegas totals, and 10% last year Pythagorean wins. Probably too high on those last two, but I thought it might be aluable to get some volatility in there. ATL 28.8 BKN 30.3 BOS 46.6 CHA 44.4 CHI 28.2 CLE 53.2 DAL 32.5 DEN 45.9 DET 36.6 GSW 66.2 HO...
by RyanRiot
Fri Jun 30, 2017 2:37 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: David Griffin Out of Cleveland
Replies: 17
Views: 13001

Re: David Griffin Out of Cleveland

What does everyone here think of Griffin? I understand he's got a great reputation with the players (especially LeBron), but what do we think of his actual moves as GM? Obviously the Cavs have been successful in his tenure, but I think we all agree that that has much more to do with LeBron deciding ...
by RyanRiot
Fri Jun 30, 2017 2:33 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2016-17 Team Win Projection Contest / Discussion
Replies: 213
Views: 167694

Re: 2016-17 Team Win Projection Contest / Discussion

Looks like 538 has realized their mistake and are adding RPM back into their model. Interesting that they felt it warranted complete removal last year but are weighting it at 2/3 now.
by RyanRiot
Tue Oct 25, 2016 7:35 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2016-17 Team Win Projection Contest / Discussion
Replies: 213
Views: 167694

Re: 2016-17 Team Win Projection Contest / Discussion

Here's my projections. First year doing this. GSW 69.1 69 SAS 57 57 CLE 56.9 57 TOR 51 51 LAC 50.2 50 BOS 50.2 50 UTA 48.9 49 OKC 46 46 HOU 45.8 46 POR 44.7 45 CHA 42.9 43 DET 42.5 43 WAS 41.3 41 ATL 40.6 41 IND 40 40 MEM 39.4 39 CHI 38.9 39 DAL 38 38 NYK 36.8 37 MIN 36.7 37 ORL 36.4 36 NOP 36.3 36 ...