Search found 194 matches

by talkingpractice
Sat Dec 08, 2012 6:16 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Scoring Rates During Overtime
Replies: 7
Views: 2979

Re: Scoring Rates During Overtime

Can you help to explain the units just a tad more, and I'm quite sure it's my comprehension at fault and not your explanation...

So, 9.7% more points are scored (per minute?) than in regulation, and 19.6% more are scored in 2OT (than in 1OT, or than in regulation?).
by talkingpractice
Sat Dec 08, 2012 6:08 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Worst performing 2012 free agents
Replies: 32
Views: 9655

Re: Worst performing 2012 free agents

Everything I have done/tested makes me think that, at least for players with reasonably consistent performance (and/or matching normal aging patterns), a RAPM model with a well-specified informed prior is pretty darned close to reality, in much less than 8 years.
by talkingpractice
Sat Dec 08, 2012 6:01 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Top values on new metric called "Individual Player Values"
Replies: 105
Views: 45662

Re: Top values on new metric called "Individual Player Value

New values came up yesterday. I think they look really good by the smell test. Wade feels a bit high to me as he may have had more age/injury regression than we projected... Howard feels a bit low to me..., but otherwise I think the current values look good from a face validity perspective. re: Some...
by talkingpractice
Sat Dec 08, 2012 5:34 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Most Improved 2012-13
Replies: 68
Views: 38777

Re: Most Improved 2012-13

Thinking qualitatively about what "Most Improved" really implies, I think it mostly implies that the improvement was something that was speculated a priori (such as a large/discontinuous leap in performance for a young player), so that the performance improvement is more likely to be real rather tha...
by talkingpractice
Fri Dec 07, 2012 1:42 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Worst performing 2012 free agents
Replies: 32
Views: 9655

Re: Worst performing 2012 free agents

I have Jeff Green's current true-talent estimate at -4.12 (with Mendoza Line of -3.3), and personally would much rather see Rivers give more run to Sullinger, who at least provides some potential upside. Maybe Ainge was fooled by Green's production over the 600 MP with the Celtics in 2011, and igno...
by talkingpractice
Fri Dec 07, 2012 1:07 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Top values on new metric called "Individual Player Values"
Replies: 105
Views: 45662

Re: Top values on new metric called "Individual Player Value

I'd be happy to discuss the model in general terms if anyone is interested. Re: what v-zero said (if I understood correctly).... yeah, our IPV tries not to penalize Lebron or Wade too much due to having some of their oomph stolen by the other. Re: Kobe, he played awfully darned good early on this ye...
by talkingpractice
Thu Dec 06, 2012 7:26 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Chris Ballard's SI Piece: Money Ballsy
Replies: 8
Views: 2665

Re: Chris Ballard's SI Piece: Money Ballsy

I guess one thing they have going for them is that their nucleus contains one guy on defense (Asik) and one guy on offense (Harden) who are +4 talents on their ends of the court. But I don't see how the side pieces (even with Parsons shooting so well, and even if Greg Smith turns out to be a bit of ...
by talkingpractice
Thu Dec 06, 2012 7:15 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Worst performing 2012 free agents
Replies: 32
Views: 9655

Re: Worst performing 2012 free agents

I have Jeff Green's current true-talent estimate at -4.12 (with Mendoza Line of -3.3), and personally would much rather see Rivers give more run to Sullinger, who at least provides some potential upside. Maybe Ainge was fooled by Green's production over the 600 MP with the Celtics in 2011, and ignor...
by talkingpractice
Sat Nov 24, 2012 6:01 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Factors that Impact Team Performance/Home Court Advantage
Replies: 28
Views: 11779

Re: Factors that Impact Team Performance/Home Court Advantag

We originally followed the methodology in this article: http://stat.wharton.upenn.edu/~dsmall/n ... mitted.pdf, and then (we think) improved on that method afterwards.
by talkingpractice
Sat Nov 24, 2012 4:17 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Factors that Impact Team Performance/Home Court Advantage
Replies: 28
Views: 11779

Re: Factors that Impact Team Performance/Home Court Advantag

Wow, I'm very interested by your result. 1, We're AIC folk, but I can't see how the AIC vs BIC distinction could be the cause of such a different result. 2, We used a dataset from 1999-2010... did your data overlap? 3, One other thing that maybe is giving us different results is that we considered m...
by talkingpractice
Fri Nov 23, 2012 4:32 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Factors that Impact Team Performance/Home Court Advantage
Replies: 28
Views: 11779

Re: Factors that Impact Team Performance/Home Court Advantag

We have that number at around -2.5 if its the visiting team and around -1.5 if its the home team (ceteris paribus). We also show milder effects for things such as having played 3 out of the last 4, or for having 'too much' rest. Obv another issue is that Denver/Utah get an extra 1-1.5 points for alt...
by talkingpractice
Fri Nov 23, 2012 4:24 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Changing the Kings' prospects
Replies: 8
Views: 3865

Re: Changing the Kings' prospects

I have Jimmer at < 3 per 100 on defense. Even Dave Berri (the only person who thinks Jimmer is any good) would get off for 30 on Jimmer.
by talkingpractice
Thu Nov 22, 2012 4:15 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Luis Scola
Replies: 7
Views: 3228

Re: Luis Scola

And now removed from the starting lineup tonight in favor of Markieff Morris.
by talkingpractice
Tue Nov 20, 2012 9:12 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Prediction with BoxScore totals
Replies: 87
Views: 59761

Re: Prediction with BoxScore totals

Long time lurker making first post. I thought this was a good time to do so, as I'm sort of the captain of a group that has done some work that is pertinent to this subject. In our testing, the optimal predictive metric consisted of a regularized plus/minus model using a proprietary SPM model as an ...