Search found 194 matches

by talkingpractice
Wed Jul 30, 2014 4:57 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Estimating Replacement Level: Sabermetrics perspective
Replies: 33
Views: 25549

Re: Estimating Replacement Level: Sabermetrics perspective

Well, that is perfect. I can get this done for us next week. I'll get one of our junior guys to handle any naming discrepancies between this list and our pbp, and then we can run it on the entire 2009-2014 sample (combining the lists from kevin and colts). I'm pretty sure this sample will be large e...
by talkingpractice
Wed Jul 30, 2014 5:43 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Estimating Replacement Level: Sabermetrics perspective
Replies: 33
Views: 25549

Re: Estimating Replacement Level: Sabermetrics perspective

That would definitely be an interesting RAPM experiment. Put all the players who signed midseason (10 day, veterans, buyout players, etc.) into 1 variable and see what kind of RAPM they would have. if someone wants to partner on this, then id be willing to do the rapm part. i just don't want to inv...
by talkingpractice
Mon Jul 28, 2014 12:58 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Talking about... Caboclo and talking
Replies: 13
Views: 9488

Re: Talking about... Caboclo and talking

Batum's a fascinatingly difficult case, especially because his quality of play may've stagnated or even diminished this past year. im wrong a ton and hence may be wrong here too, but I really disagree with this. both the boxscore and rapm parts of our model had him taking a huge step up this year, ...
by talkingpractice
Tue Jul 22, 2014 4:11 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Talking about... Caboclo and talking
Replies: 13
Views: 9488

Re: Talking about... Caboclo and talking

Statman wrote:I don't disagree really with what you say about the kid.
Just to be clear, it was Jonathan Tjarks who wrote that article, not me.
by talkingpractice
Mon Jul 21, 2014 12:49 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Talking about... Caboclo and talking
Replies: 13
Views: 9488

Re: Talking about... Caboclo and talking

Given the title of this thread, I figured I'd throw in my 2 cents.

The pro-Bruno argument is presented pretty well here: http://patternofbasketball.blogspot.mx/ ... boclo.html
by talkingpractice
Thu Jun 26, 2014 7:22 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: A question for Talkingpactice about FFAPM
Replies: 4
Views: 2389

Re: A question for Talkingpactice about FFAPM

I spoke to him about it today, and the percentiles are based on all FFAPM results between 2005 and 2013, so it tells you where players fall within the entire database and not just the years you happen to be looking at. Over the summer, he will add something to the tables to explain this, and will al...
by talkingpractice
Thu Jun 26, 2014 1:49 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: A question for Talkingpactice about FFAPM
Replies: 4
Views: 2389

Re: A question for Talkingpactice about FFAPM

Hey Crow, I'm not 100% sure about those tables, to be completely honest. Randall Cooper (@laughingcavs on twitter) is the guy behind FFAPM. The article where he first describes the methodology is buried in the archives a bit, but here is the link: http://www.gotbuckets.com/2014/04/22/introducing-fou...
by talkingpractice
Tue Jun 24, 2014 2:48 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Predicting NBA Playoffs using RAPM (updated with Finals)
Replies: 63
Views: 34344

Re: Predicting NBA Playoffs using RAPM (updated with Finals)

So, how does a +2 team become a -4 team? This is way off the main topic, but it sounded weird to me too, so I went back and checked what we had. I agree that CHA was projected to be a bit worse than in the regular season (and the Heat way better), due in large part to Gary Neal presumably getting m...
by talkingpractice
Mon Jun 23, 2014 11:23 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Minute Projections for players of the 2014 NBA DRAFT
Replies: 14
Views: 12241

Re: Minute Projections for players of the 2014 NBA DRAFT

qualitatively, i think the 2012 and 2013 results are awesome, especially insofar as finding sleepers (Sullinger, Dray, Crowder, Wolters, etc). importantly though, in terms of sleepers, there seem to be virtually no false positives from those years.
by talkingpractice
Wed Apr 30, 2014 6:24 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Predicting NBA Playoffs using RAPM (updated with Finals)
Replies: 63
Views: 34344

Re: Predicting the NBA Playoffs using RAPM

My amigo Seth, who also claimed widely that the Turner trade was awful the very second it was made, put out this cool article the other day with another interesting theory re IND -> http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/fanc ... bowed-him/
by talkingpractice
Sun Apr 27, 2014 4:56 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Flaws with RAPM
Replies: 40
Views: 20330

Re: Flaws with RAPM

Adjusting for FT% is huge. Among players with 1,000+ MP this season, their opponents ranged in FT% from 70.8% to 79.8%. That's a 9% range which the player has no control over. My intuition (which is correct about 50% of the time) leads me to think that this still won't amount to much of a material ...
by talkingpractice
Sat Apr 26, 2014 9:14 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Flaws with RAPM
Replies: 40
Views: 20330

Re: Flaws with RAPM

IMO, most of these things are either:

(a) not flaws with RAPM, as they are addressed by anyone calculating it properly (#3 and #5), or
(b) minor enough that they aren't very significant in terms of player values.
by talkingpractice
Thu Apr 24, 2014 6:04 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: What does this case of "synergy" mean? (Truehoop)
Replies: 2
Views: 2438

Re: What does this case of "synergy" mean? (Truehoop)

Third person here who saw this last week and had no idea what the heck it was, but is very curious.
by talkingpractice
Thu Apr 24, 2014 6:00 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: MIP ie MIS Award
Replies: 7
Views: 3896

Re: MIP ie MIS Award

Great points brought up by Pellican, as obv I did an awful job of explaining what the numbers meant. I know him from twitter, and he rather obviously knows a ton about NOP (pick his brain about them and itll become obvious), and is in the process of slowly dominating the rest of us in analytic power...
by talkingpractice
Wed Apr 23, 2014 3:50 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: MIP ie MIS Award
Replies: 7
Views: 3896

Re: MIP ie MIS Award

Mike G reads minds lol. We had a prior of +3.4 for Steph, and IPV this year of +5.4. He'd be next on the list if I had went one guy deeper.

DSMok1 that formatting rocks, and I will ofc now use this going forward :D.