Search found 194 matches

by talkingpractice
Wed Jan 22, 2014 3:22 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Prior-Informed RAPM (Updated 2-3 Times/Wk)
Replies: 40
Views: 9669

Re: Prior-Informed RAPM (Updated 2-3 Times/Wk)

boooeee wrote:Do the numbers have a particular unit definition? For example, points per 48 minutes or 100 possessions?
They're per 100 possessions.
by talkingpractice
Tue Jan 21, 2014 5:18 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Prior-Informed RAPM (Updated 2-3 Times/Wk)
Replies: 40
Views: 9669

Prior-Informed RAPM (Updated 2-3 Times/Wk)

A lot of people have been asking us on Basketball Twitter and APBR for a full list of RAPM values for the NBA, so we decided to oblige with the version that most people requested. The below numbers are created as follows: - This is RAPM-informed RAPM. - Seed year is 2006. All non-rookies start at {0...
by talkingpractice
Fri Jan 17, 2014 9:34 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Early 2013-14 stat-based observations
Replies: 68
Views: 13951

Re: Early 2013-14 stat-based observations

"Who else goes on an 'empty stats' team?" IMO it should be the guys with the largest gap between PER (or maybe offensive winshares per 48 minutes) and RAPM. We track this every day, though replacing PER here with our FORPM model (random forest based spm/boxscore model, details on our site). Here's ...
by talkingpractice
Thu Jan 09, 2014 4:50 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Who Shot? JR - Stupid but how stupid, really?
Replies: 15
Views: 6290

Re: Who Shot? JR - Stupid but how stupid, really?

Is it fair to say that if a virtual army of nerds with computers, taking several days, call this a toss-up decision, that for JR Smith, in a split-second, to decide to shoot is not stupid? I haven't calculated the win probabilities yet, but I'm fairly certain Smith would have been better off tying ...
by talkingpractice
Thu Dec 19, 2013 5:54 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Top values on new metric called "Individual Player Values"
Replies: 105
Views: 45671

Re: Top values on new metric called "Individual Player Value

New values up. Lebron up to #8 now as his RAPM made a nice jump up after the past few games (incl last night).

We added the FORPM and RAPM (NPI) numbers for each player too, rather than just IPV.

Crow I'll pm you now with the values you asked for. Sorry for the delay (just saw the question).
by talkingpractice
Mon Dec 16, 2013 8:46 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Top values on new metric called "Individual Player Values"
Replies: 105
Views: 45671

Re: Top values on new metric called "Individual Player Value

Thanks for the tidbit about the notable people not doing so well in RAPM thus far. You're welcome, no problem at all. Here's some others with bad RAPM (NPI) thus far, and these guys and the others mentioned before are a really large chunk (almost all) of the guys whose RAPM is lower than you'd prob...
by talkingpractice
Thu Dec 12, 2013 8:20 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Top values on new metric called "Individual Player Values"
Replies: 105
Views: 45671

Re: Top values on new metric called "Individual Player Value

Our published values are not "player values", and never claimed to be... "Individual Player Values" are not "player values", and never claimed to be? OK ... LOL, touche. I meant to say "player rankings", and not player values. Sadly, as it was the source of some fun, having added data from the past...
by talkingpractice
Wed Dec 11, 2013 7:36 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Top values on new metric called "Individual Player Values"
Replies: 105
Views: 45671

Re: Top values on new metric called "Individual Player Value

any ranking system that didn't have Shaq at #1 could be summarily dismissed. Our published values are not "player values", and never claimed to be (as no RAPM-based model would be at this point in the season). They simply are what they are. We'll put a larger explanation of what's in the model on t...
by talkingpractice
Wed Dec 11, 2013 3:57 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Top values on new metric called "Individual Player Values"
Replies: 105
Views: 45671

Re: Top values on new metric called "Individual Player Value

And lol at me, as I just realized you were referring to Reggie being in the top 10 list, and not the King missing from it. 1, Reggie is literally #1 in the NBA in our pure NPI RAPM right now. 2, MIA is outscoring opponents by like 5-7ppg with royalty on the court, and by like 13-15ppg when royalty r...
by talkingpractice
Wed Dec 11, 2013 3:03 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Top values on new metric called "Individual Player Values"
Replies: 105
Views: 45671

Re: Top values on new metric called "Individual Player Value

Thru games of 12/08 ... What's wrong with this picture?[/quote] I too am quite surprised by the absence of the King in that list, and I practically put him on top as #0 for the heck of it (he's just on the outside of the top 10 right now). Don't blame the messenger, blame RAPM (when used with small...
by talkingpractice
Tue Dec 10, 2013 10:46 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Most Improved 2014
Replies: 35
Views: 23359

Re: Most Improved 2014

Where do you have Reggie Jackson? Gosh, we have a very similar list/opinion on this issue this year, otherwise. Others we have high in ours (mostly due to RAPM) that you dont have in your list are Casspi, Norris Cole lol, Terrence Jones, and Marcus Morris. One problem here is that so much of this is...
by talkingpractice
Tue Dec 10, 2013 5:16 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Reports: Gay to Sacramento
Replies: 5
Views: 2497

Re: Reports: Gay to Sacramento

From SAC's perspective, this trade turns them into a basketball team instead of a bunch of basketball players. They can start Isaiah now, move Williams to PF, get Cousins usage under 90%, start to build some reasonable rotations, etc. And that bad year on Gay's contract next year (which I guess may ...
by talkingpractice
Tue Dec 03, 2013 3:57 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Top values on new metric called "Individual Player Values"
Replies: 105
Views: 45671

Re: Top values on new metric called "Individual Player Value

Also, would those values be calculated differently, then the current IPV being released in tid-bits for the 2013-2014 season? Hoopdon.weebly.com Yeah, last years posted numbers were a best estimate of player value, involving prior year information, an aging curve, mean reversion, etc. This year the...
by talkingpractice
Mon Dec 02, 2013 11:13 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Top values on new metric called "Individual Player Values"
Replies: 105
Views: 45671

Re: Top values on new metric called "Individual Player Value

Looks like Amir Johnson lost his starting job to Tyler Hansbrough. And last season he sat on the bench when Bargnani was healthy, although that was partly an organization trying to justify a number one pick. He's probably the best current representation of the no-stats all-star (although he does pi...