Search found 912 matches

by EvanZ
Sat Mar 25, 2017 4:38 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2017 draft analytics
Replies: 71
Views: 39938

Re: 2017 draft analytics

I see big red flags in both these guys FT%. I think Ball has serious shooting concerns at the next level because of his release and form, and Fultz 3P shooting in college is scary because his FT% is so low (65%). Very rare to see above-average point guard shooters with such low FT%'s. I think this d...
by EvanZ
Fri Mar 24, 2017 6:28 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Poll: RPM's degree of efficacy in sorting players
Replies: 138
Views: 97175

Re: Poll: RPM's degree of efficacy in sorting players

Another way to frame this question is in terms of AUC. For example, an AUC of 0.9 would mean that if you take two players and ranked them, you'd have a 90% chance of ranking the better player ahead of the worse player. So, with that metric, what would people estimate is the "AUC" of RPM? I'd say aro...
by EvanZ
Fri May 06, 2016 6:24 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Age vs. Minutes?
Replies: 3
Views: 3254

Age vs. Minutes?

Looking for research that has been done into answering the question whether a player's age or minutes played (i..e experience in the league) is more predictive of future development. Specific use case: Harrison "He's still just 23 year old" Barnes. I have an ongoing discussion with someone who is ar...
by EvanZ
Thu Apr 14, 2016 8:17 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2015-16 Team win projections
Replies: 322
Views: 252923

Re: 2015-16 Team win projections

Minutes projections clearly have value. In fact, that alone is worthy of its own model and research. But for purposes of ratings, it would be nice to separate out the rating from the minutes. That way we know for sure what we are actually praising. ;) Congrats to Andrew, regardless. It's impressive ...
by EvanZ
Thu Apr 14, 2016 5:15 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2015-16 Team win projections
Replies: 322
Views: 252923

Re: 2015-16 Team win projections

Can we say for certain that PT-PM is the best projection system? Is everyone using the same minutes projections? If not, how can you tell me this is more about PT-PM versus a more accurate prediction of minutes for each player? I would suggest each participant do a retrodiction using minutes actuall...
by EvanZ
Fri Jan 29, 2016 8:54 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2015-16 Team win projections
Replies: 322
Views: 252923

Re: 2015-16 Team win projections

I am not sure that actually solves the problem, for example, if PT-PM thought Durant was not going to be good last year and used the consensus minutes projections I would have beaten the field on OKC's wins estimates even though that player estimate was wrong. True, then I would suggest each partic...
by EvanZ
Thu Jan 28, 2016 9:21 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2015-16 Team win projections
Replies: 322
Views: 252923

Re: 2015-16 Team win projections

Moreover, if we all agreed on the minutes projections (which is how I think these projection contests should operate, because we're actually more interested in the player valuation models than the minutes projections), which method would win? And if I just use something "simple" like 2-year RAPM, ho...
by EvanZ
Thu Jan 28, 2016 9:20 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2015-16 Team win projections
Replies: 322
Views: 252923

Re: 2015-16 Team win projections

permaximum wrote:I agree. That's why I said although there's a hint, probably we didn't get worse in reality.

But I believe this confirms our ability to predict has not been improved meaningfully at all, if it's improved.
Can we at least say the RAPM-based methods are better than the non-RAPM based ones?
by EvanZ
Tue Jan 26, 2016 5:29 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Anybody know the worst season before signing a Max deal?
Replies: 7
Views: 6530

Anybody know the worst season before signing a Max deal?

Harrison Barnes currently has a PER of 13.9 and according to everyone on Twitter, he is set up for a max deal this summer. I can't imagine a less worthy player getting a max contract.

Go.
by EvanZ
Wed Dec 02, 2015 7:12 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Incorporating "gamestate" into APM/RAPM, design matrix ?s
Replies: 15
Views: 11457

Re: Incorporating "gamestate" into APM/RAPM, design matrix ?

Yeah, I have to agree with JE about the HCA factor. I don't see any good reason to use two columns. It's not two different factors. And if you treat it as two different factors, they are 100% correlated, so it doesn't add any information. Also, why not just use win probability as a proxy for game st...
by EvanZ
Wed Dec 02, 2015 1:17 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Incorporating "gamestate" into APM/RAPM, design matrix ?s
Replies: 15
Views: 11457

Re: Incorporating "gamestate" into APM/RAPM, design matrix ?

Why are you treating the "game state" (point margin) as a dummy variable and not just a continuous variable? Do you have reason to believe the effect (if any) will be non-linear? I mean, maybe it will be, but are you really going to have a column for each possible value of point margin? Seems like o...
by EvanZ
Wed Sep 23, 2015 4:55 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: HOWTO Build a NBA stats website
Replies: 1
Views: 5654

HOWTO Build a NBA stats website

http://nyloncalculus.com/2015/09/21/gue ... s-website/

Posted that the other day. Figured it should be mentioned here for reference/discussion.
by EvanZ
Sun Aug 09, 2015 4:31 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Using Spark to calculate RAPM
Replies: 19
Views: 14578

Re: Using Spark to calculate RAPM

For now, I hope you think of this article more as a recipe or strategy than a final final thingy. It’s obviously not that. But the idea going forward should be pretty clear. Get a bunch of data and computers and modelize all the things. Winning basketball will ensue as a result. As far as disclaime...
by EvanZ
Sun Aug 09, 2015 4:28 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Using Spark to calculate RAPM
Replies: 19
Views: 14578

Re: Using Spark to calculate RAPM

which is an honest straight-forward question - how should the results be interpreted? if someone is going to present a listing - and it is not a listing of who is better or who played better - then what is it a list of?... I don't feel the need to say the same thing twice. I post for the people who...