Search found 912 matches

by EvanZ
Sat Aug 08, 2015 9:59 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Using Spark to calculate RAPM
Replies: 19
Views: 15158

Re: Using Spark to calculate RAPM

Mike, the way to interpret the rankings is that they are the result of a calculation with very explicit (unbiased) methodology. If you would take the time to understand the methodology and view the results as simply that, maybe you could come to peace with RAPM. tl;dr version It is what it is. Perha...
by EvanZ
Wed Aug 05, 2015 4:10 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Guides to Creating RAPM
Replies: 27
Views: 26424

Re: Guides to Creating RAPM

I've never done priors with RAPM, but I would think you could just add a feature for each player for each season. So for example if you were doing 2-year RAPM, one matchup might be GSW vs CLE (from the finals): Steph15 + b*Steph14 + Klay15 + b*Klay14 + Barnes15 + b*Barnes14 + ... LeBron15 + b*LeBron...
by EvanZ
Thu Jul 30, 2015 4:54 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Using Spark to calculate RAPM
Replies: 19
Views: 15158

Re: Using Spark to calculate RAPM

Thanks! I should probably tell you not to read it so you can be left with that sparkling impression (pun intended). ;)
by EvanZ
Wed Jul 29, 2015 10:46 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Using Spark to calculate RAPM
Replies: 19
Views: 15158

Re: Using Spark to calculate RAPM

As I said in the article, I'm not running this on a cluster, so I don't have those benchmarks. For what I'm doing here, almost certainly it would take longer on AWS to start the cluster than to run the analysis.
by EvanZ
Wed Jul 29, 2015 6:41 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Using Spark to calculate RAPM
Replies: 19
Views: 15158

Re: Using Spark to calculate RAPM

Because it's using sparse vectors, you shouldn't need that much RAM actually. Probably will easily work on a computer with at least 4 GB.

I think AWS gives something like 750 free computer hours to new users. You could try that out, if you haven't already used them up. :)
by EvanZ
Wed Jul 29, 2015 3:42 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Using Spark to calculate RAPM
Replies: 19
Views: 15158

Using Spark to calculate RAPM

Thought folks here might be interested in this:

http://nyloncalculus.com/2015/07/29/gue ... -a-how-to/
by EvanZ
Thu Jul 23, 2015 8:23 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Request a short overview of the current state of analytics
Replies: 41
Views: 23035

Re: Request a short overview of the current state of analyti

How is the NBA.com PIE rating? One last question. What statistic is most likely to produce a ranking that would agree with the "common sense" opinion of the average basketball fan (as opposed to some advanced statistics that rank players like Draymond Green and Andre Iguodala very high). "Common Se...
by EvanZ
Thu Jul 23, 2015 8:22 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Request a short overview of the current state of analytics
Replies: 41
Views: 23035

Re: Request a short overview of the current state of analyti

What statistic is most likely to produce a ranking that would agree with the "common sense" opinion of the average basketball fan (as opposed to some advanced statistics that rank players like Draymond Green and Andre Iguodala very high). Draymond and Iggy rank 2nd/3rd, on one of the best teams eve...
by EvanZ
Tue Jul 14, 2015 10:33 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: How many "contexts" are there?
Replies: 13
Views: 8292

Re: How many "contexts" are there?

/soapbox Everything is "context" to some extent. This is the curse of dimensionality at work. The more we drill down into these stats, the worse it will seemingly become. Not that we know less in an absolute sense, but the more we know (and don't account for in our models) the more non-analytics-bel...
by EvanZ
Tue Jun 09, 2015 12:10 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Hot Hand
Replies: 20
Views: 17580

Re: Hot Hand

I wonder if from a Bayesian perspective (which few, if any, of these articles seem to embrace) we would see "hot handedness" simply as another intrinsic parameter of "shooter quality". It makes perfect sense to me that some individuals have more tendency to go on runs while others do not. The effect...
by EvanZ
Mon Jun 01, 2015 6:56 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: APBR-DraftExpress 2015 NBA Draft Project
Replies: 277
Views: 90564

Re: APBR-DraftExpress 2015 NBA Draft Project

But, Zach Lavine gets drafted high because he LOOKS so awesome running & jumping. Never mind he was invisible 85% of the time on a meh college team. Yes, he is young, one can easily IMAGINE his becoming much more than he is now - but the instances of past college players being that relatively medio...
by EvanZ
Wed May 27, 2015 7:36 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: APBR-DraftExpress 2015 NBA Draft Project
Replies: 277
Views: 90564

Re: APBR-DraftExpress 2015 NBA Draft Project

Great work everyone. I'd actually like to see more subjectivity put into the rankings. Perhaps, subjective (ordinal) ratings could be made for "intangibles" like toughness, athleticism (although maybe combine is good enough here), motor, BBIQ, etc. I know these things are hard to measure (i.e. they'...
by EvanZ
Tue May 26, 2015 6:52 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: APBR-DraftExpress 2015 NBA Draft Project
Replies: 277
Views: 90564

Re: APBR-DraftExpress 2015 NBA Draft Project

@Ampersand, might want to add Kevin Pelton's board to that spreadsheet, if possible.
by EvanZ
Tue May 26, 2015 4:22 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: APBR-DraftExpress 2015 NBA Draft Project
Replies: 277
Views: 90564

Re: APBR-DraftExpress 2015 NBA Draft Project

After seeing Steve's board, I started looking into Bobby Portis. Really impressed by what I see in him. Toughness, endless motor, good FT%, skilled passer by all accounts I read. He's long.

This guy looks like he should be a top 10 pick.