Search found 912 matches

by EvanZ
Mon May 18, 2015 8:07 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Simple question regarding True Shot Attempts
Replies: 16
Views: 8791

Re: Simple question regarding True Shot Attempts

Actually, now that you mention it, any trip to the line is going to be counted whether it's in the act of shooting or in the bonus (except technical FTA, I take those out). But should we remove off-the-ball attempts from the equation? I would argue no, since these effectively do count as a possessio...
by EvanZ
Wed May 13, 2015 5:45 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Simple question regarding True Shot Attempts
Replies: 16
Views: 8791

Re: Simple question regarding True Shot Attempts

... First, shouldn't we define what an *actual* TSA is? TSA = FGA + (# of shooting fouls received) + 0.5*(# 3pt shooting fouls received) ... That formula -as written- seems strange to me. Why is getting fouled on a 3-point attempt considered to be 1.5 shooting attempts? Ha. You're right. I complete...
by EvanZ
Wed May 13, 2015 4:10 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Simple question regarding True Shot Attempts
Replies: 16
Views: 8791

Re: Simple question regarding True Shot Attempts

You guys are talking about *estimates* of TSA. First, shouldn't we define what an *actual* TSA is? For my money: TSA = FGA + (# of shooting fouls received) + 0.5*(# 3pt shooting fouls received) An estimate of this is TSA = FGA + 0.44*FTA. On my site, I have the actual TSA (although I realize in writ...
by EvanZ
Thu May 07, 2015 6:51 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Better Defender; Khris Middleton or John Henson?
Replies: 8
Views: 4393

Re: Better Defender; Khris Middleton or John Henson?

I was really high on Henson out of college. I was very vocal (on twitter) about wanting the Warriors to pick him over Barnes. Seems like Henson his first couple years put up a lot of stats but had a negative effect according to the +/- metrics, but now that is turning around I guess. Good for him. H...
by EvanZ
Fri May 01, 2015 5:07 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: What to add to LRMC?
Replies: 3
Views: 2679

Re: What to add to LRMC?

https://www2.isye.gatech.edu/~jsokol/lrmc/

Wish I had known this guy was working on it when I was a prof there. :lol:


Interesting they didn't have Wisconsin or Duke making it to the FF this year.
by EvanZ
Wed Apr 29, 2015 11:32 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Best team in the playoffs according to RPM
Replies: 7
Views: 3329

Re: Best team in the playoffs according to RPM

Basically, the big question in analytics to me is how to get past the "linear" regime that we are operating in? We all know that there are complicated interactions between teammates and between players on opposing teams that RAPM/RPM alone is not going to solve. Is anyone working on this?
by EvanZ
Wed Apr 29, 2015 6:32 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Best team in the playoffs according to RPM
Replies: 7
Views: 3329

Re: Best team in the playoffs according to RPM

For whatever reason, Warriors just don't match up well vs. SAS. OTOH, the Spurs having to play tough first round and maybe second against Houston could help.
by EvanZ
Fri Apr 17, 2015 4:29 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Predictions 2014-2015
Replies: 265
Views: 265129

Re: Predictions 2014-2015

So when do we get PT-PM predictions for the playoffs?
by EvanZ
Wed Apr 15, 2015 6:52 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Article on gambling
Replies: 9
Views: 4086

Re: Article on gambling

Isn't one of the biggest issues with making a sustainable living from gambling simply having the infrastructure to place big enough bets to make it worth it?
by EvanZ
Wed Apr 15, 2015 4:13 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Vanilla RAPM for 14-15?
Replies: 34
Views: 21440

Re: Vanilla RAPM for 14-15?

If anyone is interested I updated my NPI-RAPM splits for this season through April 13:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... sp=sharing
by EvanZ
Tue Apr 07, 2015 6:04 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: "Points Above Average"
Replies: 109
Views: 48044

Re: "Points Above Average"

I worked on an "adjusted" shooting metric like this a few years back (2010-11) which took into account inside, mid-range, 3pta, and free-throws. https://thecity2.files.wordpress.com/2011/12/psams_similarity1.jpg http://www.d3coder.com/thecity/2011/12/13/stat-o-graphic-player-similarities-by-psams/ H...
by EvanZ
Fri Mar 27, 2015 7:56 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Vanilla RAPM for 14-15?
Replies: 34
Views: 21440

Re: Vanilla RAPM for 14-15?

Here are off + def splits I did a few days ago:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... 1783210900
by EvanZ
Sun Mar 22, 2015 6:10 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: A simple floor spacing formula
Replies: 20
Views: 15989

Re: A simple floor spacing formula

The thing about a player like Howard is that in the old days you would probably want to double team him, and actually draw a wing defender away from the 3pt line towards the basket. I think teams have realized it's better to defend Howard with single coverage in the post, so as not to leave any shoo...
by EvanZ
Fri Mar 20, 2015 12:16 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: A simple floor spacing formula
Replies: 20
Views: 15989

Re: A simple floor spacing formula

I've tried a spacing measure using the defender distance on catch-and-shoot attempts.
Would a player with a quicker release and creates greater space look worse in this metric?
by EvanZ
Tue Mar 17, 2015 8:12 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: New to field, but not necessarily a novice.
Replies: 9
Views: 3855

Re: New to field, but not necessarily a novice.

Definitely a good question for J.E. Not sure if it would be "noisier", considering it basically is the equivalent number of samples in each case. I guess the question is whether adding O+D together is a better or worse predictor than the "total" RAPM case (i.e. fitting point differential). I haven't...