Search found 904 matches

by DSMok1
Tue May 14, 2019 8:40 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Reconstructing Box Plus/Minus
Replies: 99
Views: 41901

Re: Reconstructing Box Plus/Minus

One of the first things I have done with the new BPM framework is to run a fully linear analysis similar to Nathan Walker's SPR and Kevin Ferrigan's DRE. I still am running the "team adjustment" at the end to make it match the team rating. Here's what I got: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1_...
by DSMok1
Tue May 07, 2019 5:16 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Reconstructing Box Plus/Minus
Replies: 99
Views: 41901

Re: Reconstructing Box Plus/Minus

General question: should metrics be adjusted by home court advantage? Harder to do: theoretically should metrics be adjusted by team standings, beyond quality of players in a specific player's floor stints? For specific home court advantage? BPM just uses adjusted efficiencies, which in essence inc...
by DSMok1
Tue May 07, 2019 1:17 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Reconstructing Box Plus/Minus
Replies: 99
Views: 41901

Re: Reconstructing Box Plus/Minus

I'm not sure it's a great idea, but you could try to do something analogous to Elo ratings for players using minutes played and scoring margin in some kind of Bayesian inference model, then estimate "contribution" as rating * minutes played. So you'd do game-by-game updates, but only using minutes ...
by DSMok1
Tue May 07, 2019 1:11 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Reconstructing Box Plus/Minus
Replies: 99
Views: 41901

Re: Reconstructing Box Plus/Minus

Couple of random ideas to make BPM potentially more translatable & cross-comparable to NCAA & other leagues: 1) For the minutes variable, explicitly tie it somehow to the length of the game for a particular league. Thinking about NBA vs. NCAA, 48 vs. 40 minutes. Should the minutes input get stretch...
by DSMok1
Thu Apr 25, 2019 11:44 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Reconstructing Box Plus/Minus
Replies: 99
Views: 41901

Re: Reconstructing Box Plus/Minus

.... The general objective of Box Plus/Minus is to assess how to credit a team's success (as measured by points) to the players who were on the court. .... "Credit" comes from the latin "credere" which means "to believe." And, it really is the case that people can assign credit for wins and losses ...
by DSMok1
Wed Apr 24, 2019 6:58 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Was it a good/bad shot?
Replies: 4
Views: 3678

Re: Was it a good/bad shot?

My personal opinion was that it was a bad shot. Why? Because they only needed 1 point.

With only a need for 1 point, it doesn't make sense to take a...30%? chance at a 3 pointer. There was no chance for a putback either, given the time on the clock when the shot was launched.
by DSMok1
Wed Apr 24, 2019 6:30 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Reconstructing Box Plus/Minus
Replies: 99
Views: 41901

Re: Reconstructing Box Plus/Minus

The "major existing issue" with most of the stats that people put out is that they're trivia: They're created by and for a bunch of people who watch sports (or whatever) without any sense of the decisions that people are making, the freedom the decision makers have, or how the decision makers are g...
by DSMok1
Mon Apr 22, 2019 11:11 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Reconstructing Box Plus/Minus
Replies: 99
Views: 41901

Re: Reconstructing Box Plus/Minus

That makes a lot of sense, Colts18. I would like to somehow do things that way, but it certainly adds a lot of computational complexity. For many leagues, that data will not be readily available. I also don't think it can actually work if the metric is nonlinear. For a linear metric, it would be a v...
by DSMok1
Sat Apr 20, 2019 11:12 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Reconstructing Box Plus/Minus
Replies: 99
Views: 41901

Re: Reconstructing Box Plus/Minus

Yes, Ben's box creation formulas are intriguing. I will be evaluating what can be borrowed reasonably. Thinking about shooting, we know that 2-point percentage has nothing to do with shooting skill. However, free throw shooting has everything to do with shooting skill. It would be interesting to con...
by DSMok1
Fri Apr 19, 2019 5:51 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Reconstructing Box Plus/Minus
Replies: 99
Views: 41901

Re: Reconstructing Box Plus/Minus

Just asking for ( on this post in response for request for feedback) what everyone else got without asking. Thanks for the replies on most ideas. Treatment of personal fouls, technicals / ejections not mentioned but I guess you've decided not to do anything there. BPM is available for college baske...
by DSMok1
Fri Apr 19, 2019 4:47 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Reconstructing Box Plus/Minus
Replies: 99
Views: 41901

Re: Reconstructing Box Plus/Minus

Instead of treating minutes played as a linear variable, what about a step-wise function? Maybe treat players over 25 minutes the same or closer to the same than in the linear approach. 15-25 minutes per game and a high % of games when health as the second step. Then third and fourth steps. The arg...
by DSMok1
Fri Apr 19, 2019 2:45 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Bench strength
Replies: 6
Views: 7285

Re: Bench strength

Typically in the playoffs the bench matters LESS than in the regular season. In the playoffs the top 7 or 8 players see more of the minutes unless there are blowouts.

Lou and Harrell actually 3rd and 4th on the team in minutes in the playoffs, so calling them "bench" is kind of artificial.
by DSMok1
Fri Apr 19, 2019 2:39 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Reconstructing Box Plus/Minus
Replies: 99
Views: 41901

Re: Reconstructing Box Plus/Minus

bbstats wrote:
Fri Apr 19, 2019 1:37 pm
Random aside - are per-100 stats in the scope of BPM 2.0?
Yes. They already are included in the current version, in essence.
by DSMok1
Wed Apr 17, 2019 5:17 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Reconstructing Box Plus/Minus
Replies: 99
Views: 41901

Re: Reconstructing Box Plus/Minus

Did you just try to minimize squared error the first time around? If you're looking to reign in outliers you could look at raising your p in your L^p norm minimization? Not sure how much that'd change your average error or how well it'd work, but worth looking into. I did originally, yes. Because I...
by DSMok1
Wed Apr 17, 2019 5:15 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Reconstructing Box Plus/Minus
Replies: 99
Views: 41901

Re: Reconstructing Box Plus/Minus

RyanRiot wrote:
Wed Apr 17, 2019 4:20 pm
If you're comfortable with including a position variable, you can try including a position and 3PA rate interaction like ATC used in Dredge.
That's a good thought, I'll look into that.