Search found 904 matches

by DSMok1
Wed Oct 10, 2018 4:55 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Bayesian RAPM
Replies: 21
Views: 18132

Re: Estimated non boxscore RPM value

I still can't follow the table from starting data to end values. Which columns get added /subtracted step by step on the table? It doesn't seem to flow left to right but rather right to left to somehow all the way to the right. There is no column for Kobe's -0.1. You can compute it but his case is ...
by DSMok1
Wed Oct 10, 2018 12:53 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Bayesian RAPM
Replies: 21
Views: 18132

Re: Estimated non boxscore RPM value

Could you walk thru one player estimate step by step? I don't understand how the Bayesian RAPM table and your words sync up. What exactly is the 3rd column and how is calculated? Same for 5th and final columns. The table itself is not sufficient to do the calculation of the final column by simple m...
by DSMok1
Tue Oct 09, 2018 6:34 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Bayesian RAPM
Replies: 21
Views: 18132

Re: Estimated non boxscore RPM value

How are you implementing the prior? Is this within the glmnet framework? No, it is implemented in pre & post processing, not within the ridge regression itself. Essentially the prior is subtracted from the observed lineup results, then the regression is run and the prior is added back in. The idea ...
by DSMok1
Tue Sep 25, 2018 5:04 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Bayesian RAPM
Replies: 21
Views: 18132

Re: Estimated non boxscore RPM value

Minutes adjusted for "overall team strength".... sounds good initially. Can an adjustment for position strength take it further? Position broadly defined by PG or G, Wing or Forward, Big or C groupings. But are you ok with the team quality adjustment changing the raw data? A standard adjustment may...
by DSMok1
Tue Sep 25, 2018 11:41 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Bayesian RAPM
Replies: 21
Views: 18132

Re: Estimated non boxscore RPM value

It's better than age adjusted. It uses a Bayesian prior based on playing time each season. Shouldn't it be both? Young guys who play a lot of minutes may be good now, but they might just be predicted to be good in the future. Unless the prior is based on the previous season's minutes played. I look...
by DSMok1
Mon Sep 24, 2018 11:14 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Bayesian RAPM
Replies: 21
Views: 18132

Re: Estimated non boxscore RPM value

Jinxed wrote:
Fri Sep 21, 2018 10:16 pm
Is this 20 year dataset age adjusted?
It's better than age adjusted. It uses a Bayesian prior based on playing time each season.
by DSMok1
Thu Sep 20, 2018 2:02 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Estimated non boxscore RPM value
Replies: 3
Views: 5584

Re: Estimated non boxscore RPM value

I am working with a 20 year RAPM dataset (1997-2017) to develop a new BPM formulation. With a pure linear statistical plus minus, here are the residuals: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1IcYySAnIZNhSAdy3mM7OtKjeaoWA8tBGLNiJs5HtBUo/edit?usp=sharing A negative residual would indicate the player...
by DSMok1
Fri Sep 14, 2018 12:45 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Free NBA Play by Play Data
Replies: 8
Views: 8417

Re: Free NBA Play by Play Data

This should have most of what you need: https://github.com/ethanluoyc/statsnba-playbyplay
by DSMok1
Fri Sep 14, 2018 11:45 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: What Programming Language Do You Use?
Replies: 5
Views: 6598

Re: What Programming Language Do You Use?

I did a post asking the same few weeks ago. Anyway, I use R and spreadsheet. I think the complex here is scrapping the data from web and do the code to do automatically. Scraping data is certainly one of the most difficult parts. However, with RVest and the Tidyverse packages, it really isn't bad u...
by DSMok1
Thu Sep 13, 2018 12:16 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: What Programming Language Do You Use?
Replies: 5
Views: 6598

Re: What Programming Language Do You Use?

I typically work with R and Excel.
by DSMok1
Fri Aug 31, 2018 12:07 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: modeling player compatibility
Replies: 8
Views: 8138

Re: modeling player compatibility

italia13calcio wrote:
Thu Aug 30, 2018 11:52 pm
My brother helped me make a site!

https://zanderchase.github.io/nba-player-compatibility/
That is very nicely done indeed!
by DSMok1
Sat Aug 25, 2018 11:55 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2017-18 lineup analysis
Replies: 60
Views: 49766

Re: 2017-18 lineup analysis

There could easily be selection bias issues--i.e. lineups that do unexpectedly well should, in theory, be given more minutes by the coach. Of course, your thesis is that coaches don't typically recognize which lineups are unexpectedly good or bad.
by DSMok1
Sat Aug 25, 2018 10:55 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2017-18 lineup analysis
Replies: 60
Views: 49766

Re: 2017-18 lineup analysis

Has anyone done an analysis showing that lineups that play together more have benefit "beyond the sum of the players" vs. lineups that play little?
by DSMok1
Wed Aug 22, 2018 4:59 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: John Stockton and BPM
Replies: 9
Views: 8197

Re: John Stockton and BPM

Hey I have some questions regarding how BPM is calculated, using John Stockton as an example. 1. Looking at basketball-reference's explanation of BPM, the coefficient value for assist % is negative. Does this mean Stockton gets docked for having a high assist percentage? Or am I reading that wrong?...
by DSMok1
Fri Aug 10, 2018 9:06 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: STICKY -- Old APBRmetrics Forum Archive
Replies: 6
Views: 29429

Re: Old APBRmetrics Forum Archive

Probably should keep this up as a sticky--tons of good analysis in those old threads.