Search found 362 matches

by schtevie
Mon Oct 02, 2017 4:47 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: New DeanO Pod
Replies: 34
Views: 33832

Re: New DeanO Pod

Hey, Dean, if you're still around, how about an answer to the above question: who was the 25 point, difference-making player you referred to in the podcast and for what season?
by schtevie
Fri Sep 15, 2017 1:34 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: New DeanO Pod
Replies: 34
Views: 33832

Re: New DeanO Pod

...as far as the value of coaching goes, it's a shame there's still believers in Berri's "coaches are deck chairs" line of thought...the challenge is it's difficult to put actual numbers on coaching value since they are so integrated in all that happens (and while I have great admiration for much o...
by schtevie
Sun Sep 10, 2017 2:22 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: New DeanO Pod
Replies: 34
Views: 33832

Re: New DeanO Pod

Thanks for the link, and it was good to hear old friend Dean O hold forth in what was generally a good interview. A couple of points. Why in the world didn't the interviewers ask who the 25 point, difference-making player was and for what season? Though it is not uncommon for Dean to guard his secre...
by schtevie
Sat Sep 09, 2017 3:04 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: How can the Celtics trade for Kyrie Irving be rationalized?
Replies: 40
Views: 27280

Re: How can the Celtics trade for Kyrie Irving be rationaliz

Perhaps a final note on the dreariness that is the Kyrie Irving trade, and it relates not to plus-minus considerations in a direct sense. Perhaps it is indeed too much to expect that executives, the best basketball minds the US has to offer, paid millions of dollars a year to manage/coach their rost...
by schtevie
Thu Sep 07, 2017 3:05 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: How can the Celtics trade for Kyrie Irving be rationalized?
Replies: 40
Views: 27280

Re: How can the Celtics trade for Kyrie Irving be rationaliz

ideus, my comments were not meant to suggest that the Celtics recently became opposed in principle to making net positive plus-minus trades/personnel moves. They were to note that they had seemingly abandoned their previously apparent and succcessful strategy. So, it is worth summarizing what the ne...
by schtevie
Wed Sep 06, 2017 2:48 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: How can the Celtics trade for Kyrie Irving be rationalized?
Replies: 40
Views: 27280

Re: How can the Celtics trade for Kyrie Irving be rationaliz

If you have a solar/battery/gas hybrid car that gets 95 mpg when the sun is shining, tops out at 25 mph when it's overcast, and only will go 20 miles after sunset -- is it a good car to drive across the country? There's something inherently more useful about a car that is capable of going 900 miles...
by schtevie
Tue Sep 05, 2017 4:18 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: How can the Celtics trade for Kyrie Irving be rationalized?
Replies: 40
Views: 27280

Re: How can the Celtics trade for Kyrie Irving be rationaliz

Amir made 12 million last year, 2nd on the team. In RS he played 20 mpg, #6 or 7 in the rotation. In PO he was 10th/11th at 10 mpg. Maybe they were tired of paying huge $$ for a guy the coach couldn't find minutes for? Even if a player compliments a few lineups, if he's an albatross in other lineup...
by schtevie
Mon Sep 04, 2017 3:18 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: How can the Celtics trade for Kyrie Irving be rationalized?
Replies: 40
Views: 27280

Re: How can the Celtics trade for Kyrie Irving be rationaliz

Without addressing them one by one, the suggested rationalizations of this trade (from the Celtics perspective) imply, at least, a disbelief in the precision of RPM estimates, and at most (worst), a complete rejection of the underlying premises of a plus-minus approach which actually aren't up for d...
by schtevie
Thu Aug 31, 2017 4:53 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: How can the Celtics trade for Kyrie Irving be rationalized?
Replies: 40
Views: 27280

How can the Celtics trade for Kyrie Irving be rationalized?

As someone who follows the Celtics with some interest and who wishes them well, but perhaps more importantly, as someone who would like to believe in progress (despite the times) I am interested in hearing a compelling argument as to how the Celtics have plausibly bettered themselves by giving up wh...
by schtevie
Sat May 06, 2017 7:36 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Poll: RPM's degree of efficacy in sorting players
Replies: 138
Views: 101218

Re: Poll: RPM's degree of efficacy in sorting players

Went through the calculation, and there was absolutely no change in the PA. Only the Bulls vs. Cavs game outcomes were affected by shrinking a notional, league-wide HCA from 0.630 and 0.615, and the only effect of this was to change the mix of unexpected outcomes but not the total. So, the figure of...
by schtevie
Sat May 06, 2017 6:45 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Poll: RPM's degree of efficacy in sorting players
Replies: 138
Views: 101218

Re: Poll: RPM's degree of efficacy in sorting players

How could I say no after all the information you've posted (though i cannot get to it for a small while)? Just to anticipate, however, there is no way that this will make any substantive difference to the figure (my bet is that it won't change the answer to two significant figures presented). A seas...
by schtevie
Sat May 06, 2017 6:08 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Poll: RPM's degree of efficacy in sorting players
Replies: 138
Views: 101218

Re: Poll: RPM's degree of efficacy in sorting players

To return the conversation to what might be considered an upper bound of predictive accuracy for whatever lagged metric on might choose, here's what I think is another representative estimate. I went through this past season's results, using contemporaneous SRS ratings (as taken from basketball-refe...
by schtevie
Fri May 05, 2017 6:11 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Poll: RPM's degree of efficacy in sorting players
Replies: 138
Views: 101218

Re: Poll: RPM's degree of efficacy in sorting players

@schtevie Beyond 70-80%, sample becomes too small for any comparison. RPM and BPM's on target prediction spread and success is extremely similar so you can take BPM for RPM comparisons. If you still insist I can make RPM chart with extremely small sample for such comparison which woulnt'be a valid ...
by schtevie
Thu May 04, 2017 2:20 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Poll: RPM's degree of efficacy in sorting players
Replies: 138
Views: 101218

Re: Poll: RPM's degree of efficacy in sorting players

Permaximum, it is your scheme to establish a relationship between "roster turnover" and "prediction accuracy". You defined the variables, so do it clean. For each metric, there are X number of games in your sample where roster turnover is between 0 and 10%, Y number of games where roster turnover i...
by schtevie
Thu May 04, 2017 3:03 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Poll: RPM's degree of efficacy in sorting players
Replies: 138
Views: 101218

Re: Poll: RPM's degree of efficacy in sorting players

Permaximum, it is your scheme to establish a relationship between "roster turnover" and "prediction accuracy". You defined the variables, so do it clean. For each metric, there are X number of games in your sample where roster turnover is between 0 and 10%, Y number of games where roster turnover is...