Search found 362 matches

by schtevie
Tue Apr 19, 2016 1:31 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: GSW16 VS CHI96
Replies: 28
Views: 19166

Re: GSW16 VS CHI96

Nate, a few points in reply. Most generally, one has to pick some measure as a basis for comparison, and I cannot think of a better one than net points per hundred possessions. The exercise then is to make considered and reasoned adjustments in these terms, e.g. talent concentration from 1996 to 201...
by schtevie
Sun Apr 17, 2016 10:11 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: GSW16 VS CHI96
Replies: 28
Views: 19166

Re: GSW16VSCHI96

Estimating an answer to my own question, a single-game win probability of p=0.6 pertains to a team having about a 70% chance of winning a seven-game series (71%). And using an average of the results of applying "Hollinger" and "Morey" Pythagorean coefficients (listed here https://captaincalculator.c...
by schtevie
Sun Apr 17, 2016 8:03 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: GSW16 VS CHI96
Replies: 28
Views: 19166

Re: GSW16VSCHI96

Crow, quite right about it being important to stipulate rules of the game about "handchecking". I had meant, as the counterpart to stipulating the current/regular 3-point distance, that one should ASSUME RULES PERMITTING "MAXIMUM" FREEDOM OF OFFENSIVE MOVEMENT. How exactly to specify this (current r...
by schtevie
Sun Apr 17, 2016 5:33 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: GSW16 VS CHI96
Replies: 28
Views: 19166

GSW16 VS CHI96

I am wondering if there's interest in having a focused, empirical conversation about the hypothetical results of a time-traveling match-up between this year's Golden State Warriors and the 1995-96 Bulls. If so, I would like to propose that we begin with a poll, where opinions are offered about the e...
by schtevie
Sun Mar 20, 2016 2:13 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Curry and the Warriors' historic season.
Replies: 40
Views: 46736

Re: Curry and the Warriors' historic season.

A little bit of first day of spring piling on...permaximum, why be shy, you should fully embrace your argument, and go what we can call the Full Robertson, where the NBA is in a perpetual state of technological/strategic/tactical/talent retrogression. Three point shot attempts and completion rates i...
by schtevie
Sun Jan 03, 2016 9:10 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Kobe Bryant and All-Time Ranking of Players
Replies: 111
Views: 98261

Re: Kobe Bryant and All-Time Ranking of Players

I ran a full era adjustment for everything, which helps the 1960s and 1980s and hurts the 1970s and particularly the ABA. Here's the adjustment chart: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CXAfJQ7UwAEy2AQ.png:large It's very interesting. This looks at all players near their peak that played in both seasons, ...
by schtevie
Sat Jan 02, 2016 5:41 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: The effect of playing small-ball / twin-towers
Replies: 3
Views: 6760

Re: The effect of playing small-ball / twin-towers

Q: To what years do these numbers pertain?

I would suspect that the relative values would be historically contingent, specifically with regard to the realized opportunities of 3-point vs. paint scoring.
by schtevie
Tue Dec 29, 2015 2:55 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Kobe Bryant and All-Time Ranking of Players
Replies: 111
Views: 98261

Re: Kobe Bryant and All-Time Ranking of Players

You point out otliers. With 130 voters I believe we can find a sweet spot. Let us not forget that when it comes to the All-Time Ranking of Players, the entire conversation is about outliers. Unless one is interested in the accuracy of rank #486 vs. #503 (in which case I recommend spending more time...
by schtevie
Tue Dec 29, 2015 1:10 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Kobe Bryant and All-Time Ranking of Players
Replies: 111
Views: 98261

Re: Kobe Bryant and All-Time Ranking of Players

I'm highly opposed to the idea of using any kind of all-in-one metric to make a greatest of all time list while they were proven not good enough over and over again in each retrodiction test accounting for roster turnover. I believe making a list by valuing opinions of people that watches, coaches,...
by schtevie
Sat Dec 26, 2015 11:39 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Kobe Bryant and All-Time Ranking of Players
Replies: 111
Views: 98261

Re: Kobe Bryant and All-Time Ranking of Players

Before offering some comments on Daniel's plot of Era Adjustments (what is a very, very interesting topic of conversation) I feel obliged, as a hostile witness, to cast some shade (yet again) on this larger endeavor. Though I understand how attractive the goal is to some to establish an All-Time Ran...
by schtevie
Fri Dec 18, 2015 5:48 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Kobe Bryant and All-Time Ranking of Players
Replies: 111
Views: 98261

Re: Kobe Bryant and All-Time Ranking of Players

Daniel, apologies if it is recently or obviously posted, but could you please describe what your era/league adjustments are? And, if inclined, also explain why you consider these to be appropriate.
by schtevie
Wed Nov 11, 2015 11:22 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Kobe Bryant's Defense
Replies: 19
Views: 11978

Re: Kobe Bryant's Defense

A few additional, relevant words on the "sticky truth" that all defensive positions aren't created equal. First a general point, followed by a specific implication as to the defensive contributions of Kobe Bryant. The "sticky truth" noted was that players "privileged" with defending the area nearest...
by schtevie
Tue Nov 10, 2015 9:28 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: RAPM adjusted for luck?
Replies: 11
Views: 10086

Re: RAPM adjusted for luck?

FWIW, on the back of my envelope, I estimate the standard deviation of this scoring randomness effect ranging from 0.13 (per 100 possessions) for a player putting in James Harden minutes (3000) to 0.41 for someone playing one tenth as much.
by schtevie
Sun Nov 08, 2015 5:57 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Kobe Bryant's Defense
Replies: 19
Views: 11978

Re: Kobe Bryant's Defense

I would like to revise and resubmit my results, this time putting Kobe Bryant-esque shot attempts on a per possession basis (what I really should have done in the first place) so as to account for changing game pace over the 36 years in question. So, same exercise, but the threshold now is the weird...
by schtevie
Sat Nov 07, 2015 11:15 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Kobe Bryant's Defense
Replies: 19
Views: 11978

Re: Kobe Bryant's Defense

permaximum, I was neither referring to you, nor disagreeing with you on the basis point of Kobe Bryant's actual (as opposed to potential) defensive performance. To the contrary. And now let me try to provide a bit of evidence for my (everyone's?) thesis that there is an energy budget constraint that...