Search found 294 matches

by xkonk
Sat Jan 24, 2015 12:06 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Question about Pace/Posessions
Replies: 9
Views: 4931

Re: Question about Pace/Posessions

A lot of the varying definitions for possessions and pace are due to working from boxscores. As you mentioned, if you have play by play you can just count them. The offensive rebound issue is, to my mind, more a matter of taste. Some/most people like to define possessions by switches; if one team ha...
by xkonk
Thu Jan 15, 2015 11:45 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Predictions 2014-2015
Replies: 265
Views: 286126

Re: Predictions 2014-2015

I think those are fairly standard terms for describing (regression type) models. They aren't meant to be read colloquially. Kind of like how the stuff on one side of a regression can be called the independent variable, predictor variable, explanatory variable, controlled variable, manipulated variab...
by xkonk
Mon Jan 05, 2015 1:36 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Learning about / from the betting sphere
Replies: 59
Views: 27526

Re: Learning about / from the betting sphere

No, broadly speaking the 55/56% number is assumed to be on -110 bets. If you bet a lot of moneylines, which will rarely be -110, the math gets different. If you're varying your bet size according to your confidence, the cut point also becomes less clear.
by xkonk
Thu Jan 01, 2015 4:09 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Problems with Linearity Assumptions
Replies: 11
Views: 5770

Re: Problems with Linearity Assumptions

I wasn't referring to BPM specifically; I had your ASPM more in mind. I think this thread might be what I was thinking of: http://apbr.org/metrics/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=21&p=34&hilit=Rodman+DRB#p34 . It raises a fair question though: if you were willing to change the form of the regression for one met...
by xkonk
Wed Dec 31, 2014 11:53 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: face reading????? Nytimes article on the bucks
Replies: 5
Views: 4248

Re: face reading????? Nytimes article on the bucks

I wonder if any NBA/other professional teams have hired anyone as a full time critic/skeptic to analyze the quality and potential impact of the analyses that others will sell them. My guess is the Bucks haven't, at least.
by xkonk
Wed Dec 31, 2014 11:42 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Problems with Linearity Assumptions
Replies: 11
Views: 5770

Re: Problems with Linearity Assumptions

If memory serves, some potentially helpful predictors for SPM were discarded simply because the results were undesirable (e.g., Dennis Rodman was rated really, really highly). Why not make the executive decision that this non-linearity won't be adjusted for?
by xkonk
Mon Dec 22, 2014 11:29 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Learning about / from the betting sphere
Replies: 59
Views: 27526

Re: Learning about / from the betting sphere

Maybe you're already doing this, but it's hard to learn too much without consciously examining your picks and why you made them. If you go through this whole exercise and come out even or behind, you'll want to know why and what you could do to improve. How can you know unless you have a good record...
by xkonk
Tue Dec 09, 2014 12:41 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Changing the Detroit Pistons
Replies: 12
Views: 6256

Re: Changing the Detroit Pistons

I noted a few times in the offseason that the Pistons should become a fringe playoff team simply by adding Van Gundy if the coach RAPM score is to be believed. But instead of adding SVG's 3 points to essentially the same team (they changed Bynum and Stuckey into Butler and Augustin), the Pistons hav...
by xkonk
Mon Dec 08, 2014 1:00 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Continuation of one metric prediction test discussion
Replies: 32
Views: 9492

Re: Continuation of one metric prediction test discussion

I'm not sure I see what the problem is with blends or people who nudge their numbers. As long as the predictions are made completely out of sample, why couldn't we run the contest and find out "talkingpractice's intuiton" is the best player ranking system?
by xkonk
Fri Nov 28, 2014 8:40 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: LRAPM
Replies: 8
Views: 3772

Re: LRAPM

Are there libraries that will fit regularized multinomial regressions? You could predict the probability of the small class of possible results (0,1,2,3,4) in one model using the entire data set instead of fitting three regressions and then trying to figure out how to cobble them together. I haven't...
by xkonk
Sat Nov 08, 2014 2:40 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Shots at RPM
Replies: 73
Views: 50808

Re: Shots at RPM

Somewhat oddly (at least to me), RAPM had Bogut as the 3rd or 4th best guy on the team (http://stats-for-the-nba.appspot.com/teams/GSW.html) and a definite positive but much worse than everyone else on the squad in the on/off type comparison (http://stats-for-the-nba.appspot.com/s4pm/2014/bogutan01_...
by xkonk
Thu Nov 06, 2014 12:10 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Player Motion
Replies: 10
Views: 12243

Re: Player Motion

I looked at some SportVu stats on player motion. Value of Player Motion: Does Motion Create More Open Shots? http://bigleagueinsights.com/value-player-motion-sportvu-player-tracking/ Short answer: no. One issue with this analysis is that you correlate distance per possession with shots over the sea...
by xkonk
Sat Oct 25, 2014 4:36 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Lakers 3pt Strategy
Replies: 20
Views: 8642

Re: Lakers 3pt Strategy

Last season's team correlations with 3PAr (3fga/FGA) TS% .649 OpTO% .101 eFG% .644 OpFT/FGA .084 ORtg .484 DRtg .014 Pace .372 SOS .001 PythW .317 Op.eFG% -.085 MOV .315 SRS .312 DReb% -.352 Age .295 OReb% -.364 Attendance .286 FT/FGA .284 FTr .247 TO% .240 I have to say that I'm a little confused ...
by xkonk
Wed Oct 08, 2014 1:45 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Impact of new tv deal on player desirabilty
Replies: 5
Views: 3129

Re: Impact of new tv deal on player desirabilty

That could be an idea, although the current D-league seems to be stocked without drafting into it. The league would also have to put the resources into creating a full minor league. Right now there are only 18 D-League teams, and they vary in their relationships to NBA teams; only 7 are fully owned ...
by xkonk
Tue Oct 07, 2014 1:41 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Impact of new tv deal on player desirabilty
Replies: 5
Views: 3129

Re: Impact of new tv deal on player desirabilty

In regards to the draft, I don't think too much will change on that front. As you say, rookie contracts will become relatively more valuable (unless the rookie scale is a percentage of player/league revenue? I don't know). But rookies will still have to get on the court to have any value. Last year,...