Search found 42 matches

by nbo2
Sun Mar 30, 2014 4:50 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2014 Draft Projection Models
Replies: 102
Views: 73622

Re: 2014 Draft Projection Models

I know most draft models don't look good for McDermott, but sometimes you've got to use your eyes too. If McDermott is on the floor with athletes (which has never happened at Creighton), then his issues on defense will be overcome. Yes, individually he'll still be a problem, yes, he won't get steal...
by nbo2
Wed Mar 26, 2014 1:56 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Value of Drawing Fouls
Replies: 6
Views: 3256

Re: Value of Drawing Fouls

There should be an "in the bonus" variable in all APM regressions. Otherwise players who foul a lot will be overrated and players who draw a lot of fouls will be underrated. Run a separate APM regression for team fouls and opponent team fouls. Then the relationship between getting in the bonus and t...
by nbo2
Mon Feb 24, 2014 4:48 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: The 'effect of being up X'
Replies: 36
Views: 32831

Re: The 'effect of being up X'

(2) If I am understanding things correctly, the regression coefficients (shown in the graph) are the possession-weighted average of (away) +/- line-up performance at each starting point differential. Might there be any relevant econometric issues arising from lumping line-up times of different dura...
by nbo2
Thu Feb 20, 2014 9:57 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: RAPM aging curve
Replies: 22
Views: 27048

Re: RAPM aging curve

Did you use an aging curve on your 4 year and 10 year RAPM studies? I'd imagine its hard to do it because its difficult to adjust for guys who improved much faster than their aging curve (ex: Dragic). I'm not exactly sure what you're asking. This is 13 years of matchupdata thrown into one pile, wit...
by nbo2
Thu Feb 20, 2014 9:52 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: The 'effect of being up X'
Replies: 36
Views: 32831

Re: The 'effect of being up X'

Awesome - this was my guess for the adjustment that Wayne Winston thought only he and Jeff Sagarin were taking into account a few years ago.

Will 2013-14 RAPM on stats-for-the-nba.appspot.com be updated to include this effect?
by nbo2
Wed Feb 19, 2014 8:17 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Player Coefficient Distributions for APM Metrics
Replies: 0
Views: 3397

Player Coefficient Distributions for APM Metrics

Would it be safe to assume an approximately normal distribution for a given player's APM rating in all/most APM regressions? For example, from http://www.gotbuckets.com/statistics/apm/2014-apm/, would it be safe to say that the distribution for each player's APM coefficient is normal with mean "Comb...
by nbo2
Wed Feb 12, 2014 3:25 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Players and/or Coaches Using SportVU Data
Replies: 8
Views: 3612

Re: Players and/or Coaches Using SportVU Data

what is this based on?
I've talked to people with the Raptors
by nbo2
Wed Feb 12, 2014 6:17 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Players and/or Coaches Using SportVU Data
Replies: 8
Views: 3612

Re: Players and/or Coaches Using SportVU Data

The Raptors were using it even in the Colangelo era, as that's when the Zach Lowe piece came out.
They weren't actually implementing anything at the time though. Didn't really have any decision-making influence in the Colangelo era.
by nbo2
Tue Feb 11, 2014 7:04 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Players and/or Coaches Using SportVU Data
Replies: 8
Views: 3612

Re: Players and/or Coaches Using SportVU Data

The Raptors are using it now that Masai is in charge. Apparently the Warriors group figured out an algorithm for play recognition, which the Rockets and Cavs are (were?) working on. I'm pretty sure the Wizards and Pacers have used it to implement changes in-game. Should be at least a few teams that ...
by nbo2
Tue Feb 11, 2014 6:33 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: RAPM aging curve
Replies: 22
Views: 27048

Re: RAPM aging curve

Obviously not the same level of research, as I am a sophomore in college and had very limited time and slightly incomplete data, but I did a project on the aging of offensive and defensive xRAPM and got some (obviously flawed but) potentially interesting results (link below). Obviously sample bias w...
by nbo2
Tue Feb 11, 2014 5:37 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Kirk Goldsberry Article & Sloan Paper - Databall
Replies: 25
Views: 21326

Re: Kirk Goldsberry Article & Sloan Paper - Databall

The EPV framework is fantastic! Props to Dan, Alex, Luke and Kirk. That doesn't mean that you assign the ball handler all of the credit for every action, when all of the actions, as well as the values of those actions, depend on the other players on the floor in the first place. The player values th...
by nbo2
Tue Jan 07, 2014 11:53 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: The Phoenix Suns and High Variance Strategies
Replies: 11
Views: 4708

Re: The Phoenix Suns and High Variance Strategies

Also remember Jeremias Engelmann works for the Suns as a Basketball Operations Analyst (http://www.nba.com/suns/news/directory.html). I'm pretty sure his APM/RAPM work for them involves ways to study player combinations, not just player values season by season.
by nbo2
Mon Dec 30, 2013 11:46 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: NBA shot distribution compared to the past
Replies: 18
Views: 6124

Re: NBA shot distribution compared to the past

Crow wrote:There is probably a semi-hard frontier for how much mid-range shots can be diminished within current rules...
Houston's D-League team, the Rio Grande Valley Vipers, begs to differ.

Image
by nbo2
Mon Dec 23, 2013 8:48 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Internships
Replies: 3
Views: 2463

Re: Internships

Some teams post on teamworkonline.com and/or their own websites but others get enough applicants through word of mouth. Regardless, building a relationship over time with people in basketball is crucial. Qualifications are generally some mix of these: Communication/People Skills - how to talk to cur...
by nbo2
Sat Dec 21, 2013 9:54 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: The Phoenix Suns and High Variance Strategies
Replies: 11
Views: 4708

Re: The Phoenix Suns and High Variance Strategies

I have to admit I don't know what a high variance player is.
Ah, I should point out I'm using 2 year APM ratings from http://www.gotbuckets.com and referencing the ratings and standard errors from the past few years.