Search found 113 matches

by nbacouchside
Mon Oct 23, 2017 1:47 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2017-18 Individual RPM Projections
Replies: 4
Views: 5896

Re: 2017-18 Individual RPM Projections

The r^2 between my projections and Jerry's was roughly .89, so pretty close. Advantage of mine is that you can read exactly what went into them: https://nbacouchside.com/building-my-nb ... b72d56dd51
by nbacouchside
Thu Oct 12, 2017 3:47 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2017-18 team win projection contest
Replies: 184
Views: 134200

Re: 2017-18 team win projection contest

Finally got around to this. (Updated)

Code: Select all

TEAM	Wins
GSW	69
CLE	60
HOU	59
OKC	52
LAC	52
SAS	51
TOR	48
WAS	47
MIL	47
MIN	47
DEN	46
NOP	44
CHO	44
BOS	44
MIA	42
UTA	41
POR	41
PHI	33
MEM	33
ORL	33
IND	33
DET	33
DAL	33
NYK	32
SAC	30
BRK	29
ATL	29
CHI	29
PHO	25
LAL	24
by nbacouchside
Fri Sep 29, 2017 2:34 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Using Machine Learning to automatically scout NBA teams
Replies: 8
Views: 7735

Re: Using Machine Learning to automatically scout NBA teams

An interesting follow up might be seeing if you could build something based on player level statistics for the players that can project what teams will be good at going forward, so you have less of an issue with early season thin data.
by nbacouchside
Thu Aug 03, 2017 2:39 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Trade Value
Replies: 24
Views: 20584

Re: Trade Value

Wouldn't the simplest way to calculate trade value be (estimated surplus value over contract per year) * (years remaining on contract)? In theory, yes, but it doesn't really work for the NBA. I mention an example a bit earlier in the thread, but Jae Crowder is the poster child for this. He's probab...
by nbacouchside
Tue Aug 01, 2017 5:20 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Trade Value
Replies: 24
Views: 20584

Re: Trade Value

Wouldn't the simplest way to calculate trade value be (estimated surplus value over contract per year) * (years remaining on contract)?
by nbacouchside
Mon Jun 26, 2017 3:14 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Metric correlation with minutes
Replies: 11
Views: 7399

Re: Metric correlation with minutes

BPM and RPM both include MPG components. DRE does not. That explains the difference in correlation.
by nbacouchside
Mon Mar 13, 2017 3:10 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Setting Up Excel File for RAPM
Replies: 33
Views: 28621

Re: Setting Up Excel File for RAPM

Well, this standardize=FALSE thing made me go back to this stuff and today I had free time to start over again. I calculated 2009 RAPM from the same source and I can confirm there hasn't been a single mistake or error in the process. But I can't confirm if there are any errors in the source data fr...
by nbacouchside
Wed Jan 25, 2017 1:54 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2016-17 Team Win Projection Contest / Discussion
Replies: 213
Views: 168077

Re: 2016-17 Team Win Projection Contest / Discussion

well, this is the worst i've done in a while. :(
by nbacouchside
Wed Jan 18, 2017 3:57 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2016-17 Team Win Projection Contest / Discussion
Replies: 213
Views: 168077

Re: 2016-17 Team Win Projection Contest / Discussion

http://nyloncalculus.com/2016/09/27/hig ... 2016-2017/

Did Andrew's projections not get entered into the contest? This was published pre-season. Seems like a shame for him to not be included after winning the contest for two years running.
by nbacouchside
Thu Nov 10, 2016 2:23 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Will any boxscore metric add / improve their shot defense?
Replies: 4
Views: 5534

Re: Will any boxscore metric add / improve their shot defens

simulation has individual player shot defense, on a scale of -5.0% for excellent shot defenders to +5.0% for poor shot defenders (and anything in between by 1/2 percentages, -5.0%, -4.5%, -4.0%, -3.5%, etc). this is exclusive of shot blocking, which is handled separately... see the thread "NBA-ABA ...
by nbacouchside
Thu Nov 10, 2016 2:16 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Comparing NCAA Conf. and International Leagues for Draft
Replies: 5
Views: 7574

Re: Comparing NCAA Conf. and International Leagues for Draft

I am trying to normalize data for a draft model. Obviously comparing and adjusting stats for international prospects based on league is important, but is there any evidence that adjusting for NCAA conference is worthwhile too? Or would it be better to adjust for each opponent since non-conference o...
by nbacouchside
Tue Oct 25, 2016 2:07 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2016-17 Team Win Projection Contest / Discussion
Replies: 213
Views: 168077

Re: 2016-17 Team Win Projection Contest / Discussion

I did two systems one with projected BPM mixed with RAPM and one with projected DRE (based on B-Ref's Marcel the Monkey projections) and RAPM. I'll post both. BPM-RAPM version: TEAM Wins GSW 70 CLE 60 SAS 58 UTA 53 TOR 52 BOS 51 LAC 50 HOU 47 POR 46 OKC 44 DET 43 CHO 41 ATL 40 WAS 40 NYK 39 CHI 38 I...
by nbacouchside
Mon Mar 07, 2016 8:19 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: APBeerMetrics & Sunday Basketball
Replies: 6
Views: 5360

Re: APBeerMetrics & Sunday Basketball

I'll be arriving Friday night and will be staying through Sunday late afternoon to evening. If there's room for me, I'll be happy to pester people on defense and set picks while otherwise remaining out of the way on offense.
by nbacouchside
Thu Feb 25, 2016 1:24 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: APBeerMetrics & Sunday Basketball
Replies: 6
Views: 5360

Re: APBeerMetrics & Sunday Basketball

I didn't get tickets for Sloan, but I don't live very far from Boston and have been mulling coming into the city to meet up with some of you fine folks. So, get at me through whatever channel is most convenient if that sounds appealing at all.