Search found 113 matches

by nbacouchside
Wed Feb 24, 2016 12:38 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2015-16 Team win projections
Replies: 322
Views: 263445

Re: 2015-16 Team win projections

Take your pick. square root of avg squared error km 6.03 DSM 6.73 BD 7.72 AJ 6.13 rsm 6.88 itca 8.13 Cal 6.18 Crow 7.10 nr 8.21 DF 6.29 fpli 7.25 Dan 8.31 bbs 6.42 yoop 7.57 EZ 8.46 KF 6.49 snd 7.64 DrP 8.72 tzu 6.72 MG 7.68 taco 9.07 avg error KF 4.82 DSM 5.39 itca 6.51 km 4.85 Crow 5.72 yoop 6.65...
by nbacouchside
Tue Jan 05, 2016 8:57 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2015-16 Team win projections
Replies: 322
Views: 263445

Re: 2015-16 Team win projections

At about 42% of the season, avg errors relative to b-r.com forecast. tzu 5.24 bbs 5.91 snd 6.35 AJ 5.25 yoop 5.97 itca 6.43 DF 5.48 fpli 5.99 EZ 7.05 Cal 5.50 MG 6.17 nr 7.06 DSM 5.51 Crow 6.19 Dan 7.54 KF 5.56 rsm 6.25 DrP 7.57 km 5.73 BD 6.31 taco 7.57 Likely to win the West in playoffs: SAS 49%,...
by nbacouchside
Thu Dec 17, 2015 3:51 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2015-16 Team win projections
Replies: 322
Views: 263445

Re: 2015-16 Team win projections

Again relative to the b-r.com forecast, avg errors: KF 6.06 fpli 6.59 BD 7.39 AJ 6.11 Crow 6.73 nr 7.54 km 6.21 MG 6.90 EZ 7.91 DF 6.26 rsm 6.91 Dan 7.98 bbs 6.28 yoop 6.97 DrP 8.16 Cal 6.31 snd 6.99 taco 8.20 tzu 6.40 itca 7.16 15py 9.51 DSM 6.45 Season is 31% over. Clearly, the b-r.com forecast a...
by nbacouchside
Thu Nov 19, 2015 7:35 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2015-16 Team win projections
Replies: 322
Views: 263445

Re: 2015-16 Team win projections

BR win projections now available. http://www.basketball-reference.com/friv/playoff_prob.cgi At last. I'd been badgering them about this. Using unsquared errors from the b-r.com projections, we get quite a different race: tzu 6.0 yoop 7.1 taco 7.6 KF 6.5 bbs 7.1 BD 7.6 km 6.7 snd 7.1 nr 7.9 Cal 6.8 ...
by nbacouchside
Wed Jul 08, 2015 4:19 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Building an NBA Game Simulator
Replies: 25
Views: 17614

Re: Building an NBA Game Simulator

Did you guys end up getting this off the ground?
by nbacouchside
Thu Mar 05, 2015 10:07 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: A simple floor spacing formula
Replies: 20
Views: 17091

Re: A simple floor spacing formula

Position can have a dramatic effect on floor spacing. A big who can pull the opponent's big away from the basket creates more useful space near the rim (i.e. for his teammates to attack) than a wing doesn't he? Yes, I believe Height*3PA is a statistically significant predictor of O-RAPM, for this v...
by nbacouchside
Sat Jan 24, 2015 10:11 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: My side-project: recappd.com
Replies: 17
Views: 14207

Re: My side-project: recappd.com

what are you using to calculate who the "stars" of the game are?
by nbacouchside
Fri Jan 23, 2015 10:34 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Building an NBA Game Simulator
Replies: 25
Views: 17614

Re: Building an NBA Game Simulator

This is really neat. I think game simulation is really interesting, because, with specific enough info about the teams, you should theoretically be able to better predict interactivity effects, which is better for a game like basketball than assuming every +10 MOV team will play every +5 MOV team eq...
by nbacouchside
Thu Jan 15, 2015 3:32 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: And the winner is...(or will be)
Replies: 15
Views: 10230

Re: And the winner is...

I think the Hawks might have the best chance, given the thinness of the East & how dominant they've become. Overall, the Warriors are easily the best team, but have a much tougher road in the playoffs.
by nbacouchside
Thu Jan 15, 2015 3:28 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Continuation of one metric prediction test discussion
Replies: 32
Views: 9588

Re: Continuation of one metric prediction test discussion

I created a new version of Win Score for comparison with Alternative Win Score, which has traditionally been the best simple game to game metric. New version is this: Points + .2*Reb + .5*Ast + 1.7*Stl + .535*Blk - .9*FGA - .35*FTA - 1.4*TOV. Values came from a regression on RAPM & then setting it s...
by nbacouchside
Sat Jan 10, 2015 1:37 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Predictions 2014-2015
Replies: 265
Views: 286525

Re: Predictions 2014-2015

I'm not a general fan of the BoxScore Geek / Win Produced stuff, but I like Arturo because he seems less dogmatic about Wins Produced and more interested in tinkering to find answers to his questions.
by nbacouchside
Fri Jan 09, 2015 6:08 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Predictions 2014-2015
Replies: 265
Views: 286525

Re: Predictions 2014-2015

I think it'd be cool to add Arturo's projections to the group.
https://arturogalletti.wordpress.com/20 ... r-2014-15/.

(his final pre-season predictions are down at the bottom of the post)
by nbacouchside
Sat Dec 13, 2014 10:55 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Early check on rookie projections
Replies: 30
Views: 15860

Re: Early check on rookie projections

Here were my numbers projecting rookie performance by RPM going into this season: ╔════════════════════╦═══════╦═══════╦═══════╗ ║ ║ ORPM ║ DRPM ║ RPM ║ ╠════════════════════╬═══════╬═══════╬═══════╣ ║ Nerlens Noel ║ -1.37 ║ 1.65 ║ 0.29 ║ ║ Khem Birch ║ -0.98 ║ 0.64 ║ -0.34 ║ ║ Mitch McGary ║ -1.72 ...
by nbacouchside
Thu Dec 04, 2014 12:08 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2014-15 MAX Ratings
Replies: 42
Views: 17105

Re: 2014-15 MAX Ratings

why are you two always bickering in every thread?
by nbacouchside
Wed Dec 03, 2014 10:37 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2014-15 MAX Ratings
Replies: 42
Views: 17105

Re: 2014-15 MAX Ratings

Is this supposed to approximate per-100 possession impact on scoring margin (ala +/- metrics) or are the units something else? Also how was it derived? If you didn't run a regression or other against RAPM (which would be impossible given lack of pbp for most of the seasons used) what was the dv used?