Search found 113 matches

by nbacouchside
Tue Dec 02, 2014 2:48 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Predictions 2014-2015
Replies: 265
Views: 286248

Re: Predictions 2014-2015

Welp.
by nbacouchside
Thu Oct 30, 2014 2:13 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Predictions 2014-2015
Replies: 265
Views: 286248

Re: Predictions 2014-2015

bbstats wrote:My predictions correlate LEAST with BobboFitos'.

CRAP!
I thought similarly when I saw that mine only had a .7 correlation with Bobbo's.
by nbacouchside
Tue Oct 28, 2014 3:47 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Predictions 2014-2015
Replies: 265
Views: 286248

Re: Predictions 2014-2015

I did a few final tweaks before the buzzer. +------+------+------+ | Team | Conf | Wins | +------+------+------+ | CLE | E | 59 | | CHI | E | 53 | | MIA | E | 49 | | TOR | E | 48 | | WAS | E | 48 | | ATL | E | 42 | | IND | E | 41 | | BKN | E | 36 | | CHA | E | 32 | | BOS | E | 31 | | ORL | E | 30 | ...
by nbacouchside
Wed Oct 15, 2014 2:29 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Predictions 2014-2015
Replies: 265
Views: 286248

Re: Predictions 2014-2015

Updated predictions to account for Durant's absence: +------+------+ | Team | Wins | +------+------+ | CLE | 59 | | SAS | 58 | | GSW | 58 | | MEM | 58 | | DAL | 58 | | LAC | 57 | | OKC | 56 | | CHI | 51 | | MIA | 49 | | HOU | 49 | | POR | 48 | | WAS | 48 | | TOR | 48 | | PHX | 45 | | ATL | 42 | | IN...
by nbacouchside
Wed Oct 01, 2014 11:01 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Predictions 2014-2015
Replies: 265
Views: 286248

Re: Predictions 2014-2015

15.5 wins for the Sixers is an interesting number. It's really, really low, but then, their organization is going to actively try to be bad, so.
by nbacouchside
Mon Sep 22, 2014 11:46 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Predictions 2014-2015
Replies: 265
Views: 286248

Re: Predictions 2014-2015

It's RPM with an age curve, run through the schedule, with a mean regressed version of Jerry's Coach Rating added in. New coaches got no boost or reduction. I think it might have effected the results more than I like though, so I might make the mean regression harsher before the season starts when ...
by nbacouchside
Sat Sep 20, 2014 2:07 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Predictions 2014-2015
Replies: 265
Views: 286248

Re: Predictions 2014-2015

Team Wins OKC 63 SAS 60 CLE 59 GSW 58 LAC 58 CHI 55 DAL 55 MEM 53 PHX 50 HOU 50 TOR 50 MIA 47 WAS 47 POR 45 IND 45 ATL 38 BKN 38 MIN 37 CHA 36 NOP 36 DEN 35 DET 32 BOS 29 ORL 28 NYK 28 UTA 24 SAC 23 MIL 21 LAL 16 PHI 14 Is this a gut projection or based on something more methodical? It's RPM with a...
by nbacouchside
Fri Sep 19, 2014 5:59 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Predictions 2014-2015
Replies: 265
Views: 286248

Re: Predictions 2014-2015

Team Wins
OKC 63
SAS 60
CLE 59
GSW 58
LAC 58
CHI 55
DAL 55
MEM 53
PHX 50
HOU 50
TOR 50
MIA 47
WAS 47
POR 45
IND 45
ATL 38
BKN 38
MIN 37
CHA 36
NOP 36
DEN 35
DET 32
BOS 29
ORL 28
NYK 28
UTA 24
SAC 23
MIL 21
LAL 16
PHI 14
by nbacouchside
Fri Jul 04, 2014 6:42 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2014 Draft Projection Models
Replies: 102
Views: 74528

Re: 2014 Draft Projection Models

Ugh. So I transposed blocks and steals in my calculations for the 2014 class, because I'm a spreadsheet dyslexic apparently. Fixed that problem and also found a formula that does a little better predicting rookie xRAPM OOS. Updated results (including Javon Mcrea for Statman): http://i.imgur.com/Ecfl...
by nbacouchside
Fri Jul 04, 2014 5:46 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2014 Draft Projection Models
Replies: 102
Views: 74528

Re: 2014 Draft Projection Models

A bit embarrassingly, I realized today that though I used per 40 minute pace adjusted numbers in running my regression, when I pulled the data for the 2014 class, I grabbed per game numbers. As you might guess, this significantly skewed the results. Here are the updated results, sorted by predicted ...
by nbacouchside
Tue Jul 01, 2014 8:02 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2014 Draft Projection Models
Replies: 102
Views: 74528

Re: 2014 Draft Projection Models

I ran a stepwise back and fwd regression on per 40 pace adjusted stats for draft classes from 02-12 to predict rookie and 3rd year xRAPM (02-11 classes for this one). [Edit: results in later posts]
by nbacouchside
Sun May 11, 2014 3:23 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: What's the best publicly available defensive metric?
Replies: 46
Views: 34048

Re: What's the best publicly available defensive metric?

So I re-calculated AV using a slightly tweaked version of Defensive Stops Gained. I compared a player's on-court performance in the three opponent rate stats (eFG%, OReb%, and TOV%) to the league average performance, rather than his team's performance without him. This alleviated some of the issues ...
by nbacouchside
Fri May 02, 2014 2:14 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: What's the best publicly available defensive metric?
Replies: 46
Views: 34048

Re: What's the best publicly available defensive metric?

I am a bit wary of Gibson's DRPM. There is a clumping effect in DRPM for big men on the same team. Quickly pulling a few examples (from espn): BKN: Collins (1.94), Lopez (1.94) WSH: Gortat (3.85), Hilario (4.39) IND: Hibbert (3.68), Mahinmi (4.05) NY: Martin (3.82), Chandler (3.79) LAC: Hollins (3....
by nbacouchside
Fri May 02, 2014 6:41 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: What's the best publicly available defensive metric?
Replies: 46
Views: 34048

Re: What's the best publicly available defensive metric?

DSG is based on changes in % (such as % ORB out of opportunities). The % is multiplied by a league average rate. So, in that way it is already pace adjusted. Opponents' shoot a lower EFG% with Gibson on the floor. He's positive in that regard. Otherwise, his net numbers don't look so good. Opponent...
by nbacouchside
Thu May 01, 2014 9:44 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: What's the best publicly available defensive metric?
Replies: 46
Views: 34048

Re: What's the best publicly available defensive metric?

Thanks for the mention of Defensive Stops Gained (DSG) deepak. DSG is a top down metric (based on performances of 5-man lineups). So, it is susceptible to the usual biases that come with top down metrics. The biggest of which (in my opinion) is the teammate pull effect. If player A plays most of hi...