Search found 113 matches

by nbacouchside
Sun Apr 13, 2014 4:17 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Predictions 2013-14
Replies: 176
Views: 109466

Re: Predictions 2013-14

Bob,

Do you mind sharing what metric you used to so thoroughly dominate? TYIA.
by nbacouchside
Fri Jan 31, 2014 2:09 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: What early returns mean for lotto picks
Replies: 10
Views: 4710

Re: What early returns mean for lotto picks

Great stuff VJL. Really interesting.
by nbacouchside
Fri Jan 17, 2014 5:15 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Predictions 2013-14
Replies: 176
Views: 109466

Re: Predictions 2013-14

I think what's helped us a lot are the New York teams slowly climbing to 0.500 ball. By the way, Arturo Galetti/Wins Produced prediction is at 8.4 (absolute error) and 10.6 RMSE. It would be nice to see them discuss why WP's usually underperforms compared to other predictions/metrics. Now that a la...
by nbacouchside
Thu Jan 16, 2014 1:22 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Predictions 2013-14
Replies: 176
Views: 109466

Re: Predictions 2013-14

That makes sense to me as WP is a pretty rotten metric for prediction. It's good as a way of describing what happened , but it always stinks compared to other metrics at predicting the future. Why, because it adds up to the point margin? You could make literally anything add to the point margin wit...
by nbacouchside
Tue Jan 07, 2014 3:11 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Most "Above Average" Player
Replies: 27
Views: 10297

Re: Most "Above Average" Player

Is there a reason you are only posting the rankings here and not on the website? Or maybe they are there and I just can't seem to find them?
by nbacouchside
Mon Jan 06, 2014 10:47 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Predictions 2013-14
Replies: 176
Views: 109466

Re: Predictions 2013-14

So you're doing average absolute error and not RMSE? I thought the Arturo Galetti/Wins Produced predictions would be interesting to add or at least compare: http://www.boxscoregeeks.com/teams I'm getting an average absolute error of 10.6 for those predictions (and a 13.1 RMSE.) They really whiffed ...
by nbacouchside
Thu Dec 26, 2013 4:28 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Neil Paine Leaving BBRef for 538
Replies: 5
Views: 3574

Re: Neil Paine Leaving BBRef for 538

So is 538 going to be like Grantland for nerds or what?
by nbacouchside
Tue Dec 24, 2013 12:26 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Predictions 2013-14
Replies: 176
Views: 109466

Re: Predictions 2013-14

While a couple of us have fallen sharply in the last week, our average has improved again, to 8.53 Bobb 7.35 416x 8.79 jBro 7.60 ATC 8.96 hDon 8.14 eW 9.05 jank 8.25 deep 9.11 ncs 8.40 fpli 9.55 Yoop 8.67 13Py 9.70 Using Pythagorean only (disregarding current W-L), avg error is 8.37 Bobb 7.21 ATC 8...
by nbacouchside
Tue Dec 17, 2013 4:00 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Usage Adjusted Rating (Usg Adj. Alternate Win Score)
Replies: 10
Views: 5204

Re: Usage Adjusted Rating (Usg Adj. Alternate Win Score)

I made some tweaks and came up with something better, I think.

http://nbacouchside.com/2013/12/17/anot ... -uarpm100/
by nbacouchside
Tue Dec 17, 2013 2:43 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Predictions 2013-14
Replies: 176
Views: 109466

Re: Predictions 2013-14

We've improved to an avg error of 8.69, with the season .294 finished. Bobb 7.66 hDon 8.75 jBro 7.92 Yoop 8.78 416x 8.55 eW 8.83 deep 8.65 ATC 9.09 jank 8.680 13Py 9.73 ncs 8.681 fpli 10.01 We have a clear leader, a clear top 2, a clear trailer, and six of us bunched tightly. At 8.83, espn is just ...
by nbacouchside
Thu Dec 12, 2013 8:31 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Top values on new metric called "Individual Player Values"
Replies: 105
Views: 44322

Re: Top values on new metric called "Individual Player Value

My little SPM and +/- blend, per 100: Player Team adjRTG 1 paul,chris lac 7.36 2 george,paul ind 7.04 3 james,lebron mia 6.73 4 davis,anthony nor 6.36 5 curry,stephen gsw 5.69 6 durant,kevin okl 5.37 7 love,kevin min 5.25 8 mills,patty san 4.63 9 drummond,andre det 4.51 10 nowitzki,dirk dal 4.49 Is...
by nbacouchside
Tue Dec 10, 2013 8:09 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Usage Adjusted Rating (Usg Adj. Alternate Win Score)
Replies: 10
Views: 5204

Re: Usage Adjusted Rating (Usg Adj. Alternate Win Score)

I need to fix some stuff with UAR. I tried to adjust so that scoring was actually valued 2.7 times the rate of the non-scoring stuff (mirroring the weight of the values in the scoring factor - fta, efg, tov, versus their weights among the four factors). I'm not sure why non-scorers are still being s...
by nbacouchside
Thu Dec 05, 2013 2:22 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Draft Rankings
Replies: 38
Views: 30074

Re: Draft Rankings

Barncore wrote:Hey James, are you going to continue these rankings for 2014? My fantasy keeper teams depend on it. ;)
James is consulting for the Mavericks on the draft, so he won't be doing his rankings for this year (so he said on Twitter anyway).
by nbacouchside
Thu Dec 05, 2013 2:21 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: D-League "Stats Coach" Opportunity
Replies: 3
Views: 2101

Re: D-League "Stats Coach" Opportunity

Well, I applied. I don't have prior coaching experience at all, but I'd be mad at myself if I didn't at least try. Be so awesome to get started working anywhere in the league.
by nbacouchside
Fri Nov 22, 2013 9:33 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Usage Adjusted Rating (Usg Adj. Alternate Win Score)
Replies: 10
Views: 5204

Re: Usage Adjusted Rating (Usg Adj. Alternate Win Score)

To calculate UARwins, you can just divide UARtotal by 55.9. That's just the divider that makes the numbers work with the particular scale of UAR. Kevin Love leads the league in UARwins with 2.5 wins, which is roughly equivalent to his 2.6 WinShares from basketball-reference.com, which also leads the...