Search found 548 matches

by Statman
Sun Apr 10, 2016 3:54 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Sam Hinkie gone :(
Replies: 166
Views: 104315

Re: Sam Hinkie gone :(

The problem with aiming for 25 losses is that the draft pick quality radically diminishes in value for every pick higher.. This doesn't HAVE to be true - if a team does a better job of talent evaluation or player projections. Hell - my draft model would yield incredible results if melded with quali...
by Statman
Sun Apr 10, 2016 3:28 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Sam Hinkie gone :(
Replies: 166
Views: 104315

Re: Sam Hinkie gone :(

Ultimately, the reason why I am so inclined to support Hinkie is because he embraces the same latticework model of thinking as I do (although he is substantially smarter than I am); a model which I value immensely and think will in the longrun, always lead to better results. I'm pretty much with th...
by Statman
Sun Apr 10, 2016 3:18 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Sam Hinkie gone :(
Replies: 166
Views: 104315

Re: Sam Hinkie gone :(

J.E. wrote:That said I do believe Hinkie would have done a better job from here on out than Bryan Colangelo will, and I find the nepotism going on here appalling.
That's where I pretty much stand - without knowing any of the parties personally. Just my outside opinion.
by Statman
Fri Apr 08, 2016 2:30 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Sam Hinkie gone :(
Replies: 166
Views: 104315

Re: Sam Hinkie gone :(

McConnell, almost PER 15 but a modest .061 on WS/48, almost -2 on BPM and -1.3 on RAPM. Not bad for a rookie. But not a starter or not a good one and 50/50 at best he gets there. I never said he was a "good" point guard (for an NBA player) - just pointing out he's obviously NBA quality. He had the ...
by Statman
Thu Apr 07, 2016 10:39 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Sam Hinkie gone :(
Replies: 166
Views: 104315

Re: Sam Hinkie gone :(

if one of the objectives was player development, what really doesn't make sense is not having a single nba-caliber point guard on your entire roster TJ McConnell is definitely "NBA caliber". He may not be starter on a decent NBA team caliber - but he's better than replacement level. Of course, he w...
by Statman
Wed Apr 06, 2016 10:19 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: High School Advanced Stats
Replies: 12
Views: 10868

Re: High School Advanced Stats

Wouldn't past data be necessary for projecting players? I think that will be hard to find except for the top players. Going forward stat tracking should be easier...as long as the stat keeper is doing a good job. That will be a big if. Yes, it would. Now, the fact I rate every college player, & can...
by Statman
Tue Apr 05, 2016 8:20 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Shorting the NBA draft?
Replies: 12
Views: 7191

Re: Shorting the NBA draft?

On a somewhat related to note, does anyone else think the NBA should increase the max roster size to 15. If the NBA wants to promote the D-League, and the D-league has such a low salary cap, teams are severely limited in the amount of players they can have in their D league system (max 2-3). As far...
by Statman
Mon Apr 04, 2016 7:07 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Shorting the NBA draft?
Replies: 12
Views: 7191

Re: Shorting the NBA draft?

This also raises the question; if team's value variance through the draft so much, why aren't teams engaging in more high variance activities such as signing more unknown players and making more trades.. This has been my big question for quite a while. Most teams still seem willing to commit guaran...
by Statman
Mon Apr 04, 2016 5:19 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: APBR-DraftExpress 2016 NBA Draft Project
Replies: 51
Views: 36824

Re: APBR-DraftExpress 2016 NBA Draft Project

I'd be interested to see what led Ellenson to be rated high (3rd) on that list, I wasn't that impressed by his numbers. Only .53 TS% for a big man is quite low, almost all the PF studs lately are in the .60s in college. Nothing special in either stl or blk. Marquette competition is fairly unimpress...
by Statman
Mon Apr 04, 2016 5:02 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: APBR-DraftExpress 2016 NBA Draft Project
Replies: 51
Views: 36824

Re: APBR-DraftExpress 2016 NBA Draft Project

shock3 wrote:

BasketballAnalytics.com has him 18th http://www.basketballanalyticsbook.com/
That was just with 35 entries.

If they run 75 guys, he easily could be in the 30s.
by Statman
Mon Apr 04, 2016 3:40 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: (Adjusted) Impact on Win Probability
Replies: 43
Views: 26391

Re: (Adjusted) Impact on Win Probability

Do people still believe that 'clutch factor' is a big thing in pro sports? I don't. Then you guys don't know a thing about human nature and sports. Don't tell this outside of this community or everyone will laugh at you :mrgreen: Let me clarify. The issue I had with the phrase was clutch factor as ...
by Statman
Mon Apr 04, 2016 12:06 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: High School Advanced Stats
Replies: 12
Views: 10868

Re: High School Advanced Stats

I'm going to track advanced stats from AAU events this spring and summer. I was wondering what were the essential stats to be tracked? I know PER has basically been proven useless for the most part. Here's what I was planning... TS%, eFG, FTr, ORB%, DRB%, TRB%, AST%, STL%, BLK%, TOV%, USG%, ORTG, D...
by Statman
Sun Apr 03, 2016 5:31 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: (Adjusted) Impact on Win Probability
Replies: 43
Views: 26391

Re: (Adjusted) Impact on Win Probability

Nate wrote:Do people still believe that 'clutch factor' is a big thing in pro sports?
I don't.
by Statman
Fri Apr 01, 2016 7:28 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: APBR-DraftExpress 2016 NBA Draft Project
Replies: 51
Views: 36824

Re: APBR-DraftExpress 2016 NBA Draft Project

I'm curious if any draft model has Jaylen Brown top 5 - because the video coordinator from Draft Express tweeted I would be laughed out of any NBA gym if I told them my model didn't have him top 5. This annoys me - when scouts see a model agrees with their opinion of a certain prospect - the model i...
by Statman
Tue Mar 29, 2016 1:34 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Christian Wood
Replies: 63
Views: 78441

Re: Christian Wood

fwiw, higher PER last season in college than Brandon Ingram. Ingram is a little overrated by the scouting groundswell. They are dreaming of Kevin Durant - but Durant was a much better player in college his one season than Ingram. I will laugh if the team with the #1 pick doesn't pick the OBVIOUS be...