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PostPosted: Mon Sep 11, 2017 8:43 pm 
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A series based on what all 30 teams would do if they just decided RPM knows better than them and followed it as much as possible. Not saying it’s the maximum optimal strategy, but just as a thought experiment

Atlanta Hawks

Their highest paid remaining players are Schroder (15.5 mil), Bazemore (16.9) and Plumlee (12.5). Schroder finished 55th in RPM last year (despite it being his best boxscore season) for PGs, 19th in 2016, and 54th in 2015. Since he has his 2016 rating and is 23 it’s defendable to hold onto him to hope he becomes an above average point, but it depends on the offers, any value is worth considering. Bazemore in 2017 was 40th in RPM for SFs, even in the season he got paid for (2016) was 37th so any chance to dump him should be taken. Plumlee was 57th in 2017 for Cs, and 53rd in 2016 the year he got paid for so it will be struggle to salvage his contract.

The Hawks standout piece is Dedmon who was 12th for Cs in RPM last year although in a cushy Spurs system and 40th the year before in Orlando. He has a player option next year so if he plays well again it will be worth paying him.

Prince finished 41st for SFs which is fine considering the usual standards of rookies. Bembry was 62nd but only played a few hundred minutes. Mike Muscala was 36th for PFs, at 26 has potential to be a top 30 at his position. They will get minutes with John Collins in hopes 1-2 are gems.

Overall after losing most of their best players off 43 W team by RPM including Millsap (3rd PFs), Hardaway (15th SGs), Dwight (25th Cs), Thabo (27th) the Hawks are left with not much and appear to be on the right track by giving minutes to young players, getting a high pick and waiting for expiring contracts such as Ilyasova and Belinelli to expire at which point they could possibly sign some RPM friendly players. They have started to stockpile picks such as Houston (top 3 protected) and Minnesota (lotto protected) 2018 picks and Cleveland (top 10 protected) in 2019.

Whether they made the right decision to not match Hardaway is a tough call, at his 2017 number of 15th for SGs his contract would be fine, but was 40th in 2016 and 57th in 2015 giving him potential to fall back, although at 25 there's a chance he could improve past his 2017 number as well


Last edited by Dr Positivity on Mon Sep 11, 2017 9:32 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Mon Sep 11, 2017 9:13 pm 
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I really like the concept. Looking forward is the most important but some consideration of the recent past could be interesting too. But that would double the size the project.


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PostPosted: Tue Sep 12, 2017 6:00 pm 
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Boston Celtics

The Celtics foundation is now Hayward and Irving. Hayward finished 9th for SFs in 2017 in RPM, 6th in 2016 and 3rd in 2015. Irving finished 12th in RPM in 2017 for PGs, 28th in 2016, 9th in 2015, although has the upside of being 25 to Hayward's 27. While both players are great, neither are likely to be as elite for their position as Lebron (#1 SF), Love (#2 PF), Curry (#2 PG), Durant (#3 SF), or Draymond (#1 PF) on their main obstacles to the title.

Their other big contract is 31 year old Horford who ranks 16th for Cs in 2017, 7th in 2016, and 14th in 2015. Horford helps if they want to win as much as they can right now, but at 27.7 mil, 28.9, 30.1 the next 3 seasons would have to stick at the 2016 ranking to come close to his contract. Considering his age compared to the rest of the team and an RPM argument the Celtics are outgunned by the Warriors and Cavs this year, the case to get out from Horford now is solid

The extension eligible Smart last year ranked 20th for PGs in RPM, 26th in 2016 and 12th in 2015. At 23 he has the upside to break out to top 10 at his position so if available at a fair price would be worth resigning, although Boston is likely wary about taking away any of their capspace the summer Anthony Davis becomes a FA.

Jaylen Brown got off to a troubling start last year at 62nd for SFs in RPM. Rookies are expected to be bad so he's not a write-off, but unlike slow starters such as Durant or Porter, he wasn't an analytically friendly player coming out of college either. Tatum appears to be a good but not great prospect analytically. Rozier ranked a solid 33rd for PGs in his first real minutes.

They likely hit an unforced error into the net by including Crowder in the Cavs deal who finished 5th for SFs in RPM in 2017 and 2016 (25th in 2015) if the deal could have been done with Brown or a draft pick instead. Along with Crowder the Celtics lost Amir Johnson (5th for PFs in 2017 and 2016, 18th in 2015) and Olynyk (29th for Cs in 2017, 8th in 2016, 7th in 2015). While getting Hayward is worth it, if there was a chance to move Horford to open up room that may have been the play.

Marcus Morris is undervalued at his contract (27th in RPM in 2017, 20th the year in 2016 and 33rd in 2015). Considering Bradley rated 49th for PGs (would be 64th for SGs if correctly listed there, 25th/24th in 2016 and 27th/28th in 2015), expires a year earlier, and the Celtics had players like Smart and Rozier to play his role, this looks to be a good move. Baynes finished 30th in 2017 for Cs, 44th in 2016 and 25th in 2015 so could be a reasonable acquisition as well.

The Celtics had a shaky summer by RPM considering they paid BKN pick and Zizic just to get worse by RPM by trading Thomas and Crowder for Irving. The argument for them is if accepting they weren't winning the title the next few seasons, and going younger allows them to wait for their picks to develop and for the Anthony Davis shoe to drop. If following RPM I would say trading Horford, extending Smart if he's asking for average starter's money and trading Brown as he appears to be overvalued are moves I would look at


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PostPosted: Tue Sep 12, 2017 7:19 pm 
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I guess you were talking a bit about the past at the end of the first post... but I already had that suggestion in my head and didn't properly notice. Sorry. Speeding...


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PostPosted: Tue Sep 12, 2017 7:33 pm 
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I edited in the Hardaway bit later


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PostPosted: Tue Sep 12, 2017 10:49 pm 
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Brooklyn Nets

The Nets biggest contracts are to Crabbe, Mozgov, Carroll, Lin and Booker. Carroll and Lin look to be among their best players. Carroll rated 21st in 2017, 26th in 2016 and 22nd in 2015 for SFs, and was 4th in 2014. Lin finished last year 23rd last year for PGs (36 games), 33rd in 2016 and 18th in 2015. Neither look to be a great asset for their future as Carroll is 31 and well paid for two years at 14.8 mil, 15.4, and Lin is 29 and has a 12 mil player option next year. Both have durability concerns. Booker finished 34th in 2017 for PFs, 18th in 2016 and 36th in 2015 and is on an expiring contract.

Crabbe has never shown much effectiveness in RPM, finishing 74th for SGs in 2017, 57th in 2016 and 54th in 2015. At 19.3 mil, 18.5, 18.5 the next three years, while they traded dead money in Nicholson for him, the trade still looks to be a self imposed wound for the Nets they should try to get out of as soon as they can. Mozgov was effective in Cleveland (9th in 2015) but collapsed since at 62nd in 2017 and 56th in 2016 for Cs.

The big move was for D'Angelo Russell who finished 41st in RPM last year and 56th the year before, a downgrade on Brook Lopez who was 15th for Cs last year. Russell is 21 and had a favorable analytical pedigree coming out of college giving him hope to break out still. LeVert finished a solid 43rd for SGs compared to standards of rookies. Hollis-Jefferson would be 36th at his likely position PF if listed there, and was 22nd for SFs last year for a rookie (only 29 Gs). Dinwiddie was 31st for PGs in his first year with a minutes total worth mentioning. Whitehead finished 69th. The Nets 1st round pick of Jarrett Allen had a mediocre analytical profile in college.

For other spare bits, Kilpatrick was 71st and Joe Harris 90th for SGs in his first year with real minutes. The last time Acy broke 1000 minutes was in 2015 when he would have finished 51st for PFs.

The just signed Tyler Zeller has been buried for a few seasons in Boston, but in 2015 ranked 24th for Cs in RPM, and 27th in 2014. The move looks to both have the upside of giving them a starter and minimal risk.

The Nets have a desperate need for anyone who is top 20 at their position to build around. By youth and his college pedigree Russell has a chance although his record in RPM so far suggests the price in a 1st, Lopez's expiring and taking Mozgov was a lot to gamble that he'll turn it around. Some recent picks like LeVert and RHJ have upside. By RPM the Carroll deal looks like one of their best of the summer as they got both a good player for their standards, a 1st and a high 2nd (less favorable of LAL/ORL). The Crabbe trade looks to be a poor choice compared to saving the capspace for more deals like the Carroll one or spending it on RPM steals later. Zeller is a good move.

If following RPM, I don't see an obvious move other than not falling in love with D'Angelo if he starts the season well from a points and assists per game standpoint but RAPM continues to be mediocre. At that point his trade value may be higher than what they gave up for him. He is eligible for an extension next summer so if he has a high scoring season (last year he averaged 19.6 points and 6.0 assists per 36 minutes, so a season over 20/6 is plausible) he could ask for the max. Likewise if Crabbe has a better season, it would be worth taking the opportunity to move his salary if they can since the Nets need that cap flexibility to get more picks or underrated FAs. Crabbe's contract is such a negative going by RPM it may be worth considering adding an asset to trade him.


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PostPosted: Wed Sep 13, 2017 1:56 am 
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The RPM rankings you want to see depends on goals & expectations. 10-15th is good for most starters on most teams but might not be quite enough for a few contenders. 20-30th for a starter doesn't sound bad but won't achieve much. Better than 30-40th is pretty good for a backup but a problem for almost any starter. Above 60th place and playing more than 15 minutes is an issue, unless you are developing, tanking or it is one of your few problems.


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PostPosted: Wed Sep 13, 2017 7:04 pm 
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Charlotte Hornets

The Hornets standout players in RPM are Zeller and Walker. Zeller ranked 5th for Cs in RPM in 2017, after 18th in 2016 and 5th in 2015. Walker was 8th in PGs the last two years, 30th in 2015. Both are on outstanding contracts with Zeller at 12.6 mil, 13.5, 14.5, 15.4 the next four years and Walker 12, 12.

Zeller may lose minutes to Dwight who rated 25th in RPM for Cs in 2017, 35th in 2016 and 16th in 2015. At 23.5, 23.8 million the next two years at a position they already had one of their RPM franchise players at, this acquisition looks like a poor use of capspace by the Hornets even if they gave up some dead money in Miles Plumlee to do it. Other teams should be trying to steal Zeller if Dwight fits in well in Charlotte.

Batum ranked 14th for SGs last year, 13th in 2016 and 23rd in 2015. At his salary making 22.4, 24, 25.6, 27.1 (PO) he rates as overpaid but is still only 28 and at some point you'd still rather have him than not especially for a lower level FA destination like Charlotte. Kidd-Gilchrist rated 23rd for SFs in 2017 and 8th in 2015, after missing most of 2016. As he is turning 24 in a few weeks he has the upside to be a productive player for the Hornets and is on a solid 13 mil a year salary. Marvin Williams had an outstanding 2016 finishing 7th for PFs, but fell to 33rd in 2017 and was 24th in 2015.

Kaminsky is off to a reasonable start to his career at 31st for Cs in 2017 after 46th for a rookie. Malik Monk had some analytically supporters in college but rated poorly on other models.

Lamb finished 42nd in RPM in 2017, 15th in 2016 and 49th in 2015 giving him the upside of contributing for the Hornets like in 2016. Belinelli rated 40th in 2017, 73rd in 2016 and 53rd in 2015. If he wasn't even a productive player by RPM for the Spurs it's unlikely he has much to offer.

The Hornets look to have a solid roster anchored by two players with top 10 track record at their position in Zeller and Walker, who's under market contracts have given them the opportunity to surround them with other starting caliber players like Batum, Marvin Williams, Kidd-Gilchrist, Dwight. The development of MKG and others like Kaminsky offer some upside. After Walker's contract expires in 2019 if he is paid like a star, it will become more difficult to build a supporting cast. Eating Dwight's contract in 2018-2019 in one of these two remaining underpaid Walker years may come back to hurt the Hornets and going forward if following RPM they would be better off moving him again and giving Zeller and Kaminsky his minutes. Looking at Batum trade offers is an option as well to further increase their cap flexibility before Walker's next contract kicks in


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PostPosted: Thu Sep 14, 2017 8:23 pm 
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Chicago Bulls

The Bulls enter a rebuilding project after trading Butler who rated 1st for SGs in RPM last year (would be be 3rd for SFs if listed there) and 7th in the NBA. Butler ranked 2nd for SGs in 2016 and 6th in 2015.

Mirotic remains an RFA and has the most promising track record of the remaining Bulls. He finished 10th in RPM in 2017 for PFs, 17th in 2016 and 6th in 2015. If following RPM the Bulls should jump at the chance to sign Mirotic at what is likely to be an undervalued contract for the 26 year old starting caliber player RPM has him as who's coming off a down boxscore year.

A bright spot for the Bulls is Jerian Grant who finished 17th for PGs in RPM last year after 58th as a rookie in 2016. While he is already 24 and played just over 1000 minutes and it could prove to be a fluke, the Bulls should give him every opportunity to break out.

Other Bulls young players have struggled in RPM. Valentine who finished 60th for SGs in 2017 and Portis 69th for PFs in 2017, 68th in 2016. The Bulls acquired Payne who lived up to his name finishing 76th last year for PGs after 44th in 2016, both in small sample sizes of minutes. Felicio finished 51st last year for PFs in his first year of real minutes, he is signed for 8 million a year for the next four seasons which he can still live up to but if he struggles they could look to trade him. Zipser rated 83rd for SGs as a rookie.

Robin Lopez fell to 52nd for Cs after 34th in 2016 and 25th in 2015. At 13.7 mil, 14.3 the next two years on a rebuilding team the Bulls should be looking to move his contract. Wade who finished 33rd for SGs in RPM last year is expected to not be on the Bulls this season whether it's by buyout or trade.

The return for Butler includes Dunn who finished 66th for PGs as a rookie and Markannen who's low steal, blocks and assist rates made his pick panned by many analytics ratings. It also includes LaVine who is coming off an ACL tear and is eligible for an extension now, an RFA next summer. LaVine finished rated 64th for PGs (would've been 79th if listed as SG) in RPM in 2017, and has a long history of analytics ineptitude at 60th for PGs in 2016 and 63rd in 2015 and was one of the least productive college players selected in the 1st round in recent memory. At 22 and as a potential 20 point per game scorer if he has suitors for over 15 million per year next season, his RPM track record suggests it the Bulls may be better off letting him go.

By RPM the Butler trade looks disastrous at the moment, dealing one of the league's top players in his prime for LaVine with his poor analytical track record and has an ACL tear, a PG who possibly projects worse going forward than Grant in Dunn, and moving from 16 to 7 to draft Markkanen who some analytics would suggest would not have been good value at 16.

The Bulls have some key cap decisions to make over the next year. Following RPM would suggest to sign Mirotic and make him starting PF of the future, and to avoid tying up their cap with LaVine, possibly trading him for value early if teams are interested. Without LaVine the Bulls cap flexibility in 2018 looks promising. Finding a taker for Lopez contract would be a positive. For the young players along with Markkanen and players who were a rookie last year like Dunn, Valentine and Zipser, giving starter's minutes to Grant to see if he's for real after last year's RPM performance could be a good idea. Portis and Payne have performed poorly after multiple years so if they continue to struggle poorly the Bulls shouldn't be too afraid to bench them.


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PostPosted: Thu Sep 14, 2017 8:44 pm 
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I think the Bulls have a really low floor this year, like pushing 70 losses if things go wrong. The key to the really bad teams is bad players and not just mediocre ones and they have a lot. Dunn and Markkanen could be among league LVPs this year if they're bad but forcefed minutes, they're basically reverse Curry and Draymond in terms of skillset, PG who doesn't shoot and PF with weak defense/passing. Then there's a handful of young players off to poor starts like Portis, Payne, Valentine, Zipser, etc. who could get minutes cause they're young. Of course if you buy LaVine's low RPM ranking he also could be at bottom of league in the stats again especially coming off ACL tear. Also Hoiberg would be ranked as one of the worst coaches by many


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PostPosted: Thu Sep 14, 2017 9:36 pm 
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They probably think they have their young core of the future already. It is a mixed, not that impressive group though imo.


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PostPosted: Sat Sep 16, 2017 4:47 am 
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Cleveland Cavaliers

RPM suggests the two pillars to the Cavs three straight finals and championship are still on the team. Lebron has been 1st in the NBA in RPM the last 3 seasons, while Love has been 2nd for PFs in 2017 and 2016 after 11th in 2015. Irving in comparison finished 12th for PGs in 2017, 28th in 2016 and and 9th in 2015.

The highest rated acquisition on either end in the Irving trade is Crowder who rated 5th in 2017 and 2016 for SFs, 25th in 2015. RPM says the Cavs big 3 is even better next year. Isaiah rated 13th in RPM in 2017, 16th in 2016 and 19th in 2015 but it's unclear how effective he will be coming back from injury. Isaiah will be a free agent next year, if asking for a max contract that's far above the above average starter RPM has him rated as, but it's possible they could resign him for a much more affordable price considering his size, age and health history. The Cavs also got Ante Zizic in the trade who has strong Euroleague production for his age.

Last year the Cavs supporting cast had many players that regressed from 2016. Tristan Thompson at 16.4 mil, 17.5, 18.5 the next three years rated 35th for PFs in 2017, 21st in 2016, 19th in 2015. JR Smith 13.7 mil, 14.7, 15.6 (non guaranteed) the next three years finished 45th for SGs last year, 11th in 2016 and 22nd in 2015. Shumpert makes 10.3, 11 mil (player option) the next two years and has finished 38th in 2017, 22nd in 2016, 14th in 2015 for SGs. Korver at 7 mil, 7.6, 7.5 (unguaranteed) rated 75th for SGs in 2017, after 9th in 2016 and 3rd in 2015. Frye at 7.5 million expired finishing 20th for PFs in 2017, after 4th in 2016 and 40th in 2015. If there's hope for the Cavs against the Warriors it's if several of these players bounce back to their 2016 value in RPM to give the core of Lebron, Love and Crowder several other starting caliber players to complete the team. Jefferson rated 45th in 2017 for SFs after 48th in 2016 and 28th in 2015.

The Cavs likely did not help themselves in free agency by grabbing Rose and Jeff Green. Rose rated 52nd in RPM in 2017, 65th in 2016, 22nd in 2015. Green rated 61st for SFs in 2017, 39th in 2016 and 52nd in 2015.

Going forward if Lebron stays the Cavs should continue to be heavy East favorites with a puncher's chance in the Finals as was the case in 2016. If he leaves, the core of Love, Crowder and Thomas if he resigns could still rate among the better top 3s in the East in RPM which could justify continue to have solid seasons and even a chance at a Finals without Lebron if he leaves the conference. However whether Thomas and Love would want to resign on a Cavaliers team without Lebron could be a concern even if they want to keep the team together. With Love being 30 next year heading into a free agent year and the Brooklyn pick and Zizic giving the Cavs head start on young players, if Lebron leaves, it would be defendable to consider blowing up the team and getting high draft picks like the first time they lost Lebron.


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PostPosted: Sat Sep 16, 2017 8:35 am 
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Frye's and Korver's drop in productivity can partially be explained by age. They'll be 34 & 36 entering the season. Wouldn't be too surprised if we saw Korver's minutes go down significantly, as he seems to have trouble on the defensive end, these days

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PostPosted: Sun Sep 17, 2017 9:19 pm 
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Dallas Mavericks

The Mavericks were put in a difficult position when deciding to match Noel's contract demand who went on to take the QO. Noel is one of their most promising pieces as a 23 year old who finished 17th for PFs in RPM last year, 21st for centers. However his first two seasons were not as strong at 47th for PFs (would be 46th Cs) in 2016 and 42nd/42nd in 2015 and his good rating was only in 1047 minutes in 2017. He also has injury history. The Mavs reported offer of 4 years, 70 million would have been reasonable for a player considering his age and performance last year, but if Noel was asking for a max deal it's understandable by RPM Dallas wasn't ready to commit to him yet.

Another of their highest rated players was Seth Curry who rated 18th for SGs in RPM in 2017, after 52nd in 2016 in his first real minutes in Sacramento. Curry is 27 and is an expiring contract this season, if he plays at a starting level again he could be worth a nice raise.

The biggest salary on the Mavs is Barnes who finished 31st for SFs in 2017, after 35th in 2016 and 21st in 2015. At 25 Barnes has the potential to grow into a mid level starter, but at 23.1 mil, 24.1, 25.1 (PO) the next three years he would be overpaid even if he was a top 20 player at his position. Considering his track record so far by RPM it would be a good idea to move Barnes contract if they can.

Matthews makes 17.8 mil, 18.6 (PO) the next two years. Even after his Achilles tear he finished a decent 22nd for SGs in 2017 and 17th in 2016. By RPM his salary is reasonable. Before the tear he was 7th for SGs in 2016 and 16th in 2015. However turning 31 before the season starts and with his two year contract he likely does not figure into the Mavs long term plans.

Dirk finished 29th for PFs last year after 6th in 2016 and 23rd in 2015. Considering he makes a paltry 5 million he is still a bargain. Other salaries include Dwight Powell at 9, 9.6, 10.2 million, Powell finished 52nd in 2017 for PFs after 28th in 2016 and 43rd for 2015. At 26 he appears to be on track for a backups career, although his salary is not atypical for one. The expiring McRoberts has struggled with health but has shown some signs of effectiveness including 21st for PFs in 2014 and 31st in 2016. Devin Harris' long career continues after rating 21st for PGs in 2017, 41st in 2016 and 36th in 2015. Barea rated 36th in 2017, 56th in 2016 and 24th in 2015.

The Mavs have their future hopes pinned on Dennis Smith, Jr. who rated unspectacularly in analytics models but impressed in summer league. Yogi Ferrell opened some eyes for the Mavs last year but RPM had him as 51st, although rookies are not expected to perform great in the model. A sleeper to watch for the Mavs is undrafted signing P.J. Dozier who had some fans in the analytics community. Another may be Dorian Finney-Smith who rated 52nd for SFs last year, although low numbers for rookies are acceptable and otherwise fits the profile of a player who may be more +/- than boxscore friendly one day for the team that developed Jae Crowder.

Overall the Mavs are already rebuilding for the post Dirk era and the performance of Dennis Smith and continued development of Ferrell and Finney-Smith will be a key to this season, since the expiring contracts of Noel and Curry make it difficult to count on them. Going forward they have cap flexibility as is, but trading Barnes contract could help them. Moving Powell's for his average production could be worth it as well.


Last edited by Dr Positivity on Mon Sep 18, 2017 6:32 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Mon Sep 18, 2017 6:31 pm 
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I am more bearish on Mavs than most in terms of wins next season. I'd make trades of any to everybody not names Dirk or Dennis.


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