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The discussion of the analysis of basketball through objective evidence, especially basketball statistics.
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 Post subject: Wizards
PostPosted: Thu Sep 14, 2017 5:17 am 
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Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:10 pm
Posts: 4744
I didn't see a recent Wizards thread (or one ever here?) Should be one.

For now I just wanted to observe that the Wiz had a great starting lineup but few mid-range minute
lineups. Only one lineup used over 2.5 minutes per game for season and only 5 total over 1 minute over game. I like the high minutes for the starters but this might be a case of doing that to a fault.
They needed a few more proven, solid 3-4 starter lineups. Far too many minutes went to 490 dink lineups used under or way way under 1 minute per game. The typical coach game coaches away the chance to even barely learn core rotation lineups. It is one of the weakest, if not the weakest part of coaching performance imo. This Wizard lineup set is absurd in the scarcity of the middle minute lineups.


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 Post subject: Re: Wizards
PostPosted: Thu Sep 14, 2017 9:41 pm 
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They had a few intriguing 0-1 starter lineups that did well but the testing was short of convincing and the minutes short of much impact. If more fully tsted and validated to that degree they could have tried to use them even more and crowd out more of the dink duds.


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 Post subject: Re: Wizards
PostPosted: Sat Sep 16, 2017 9:51 pm 
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Wiz in playoffs: Monster starting lineup, then 7 of 9 next biggest minute lineups were negative. All but one badly to massively bad. Didn't learn, burn.


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 Post subject: Re: Wizards
PostPosted: Fri Oct 06, 2017 3:24 am 
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Joined: Fri Apr 15, 2011 6:40 pm
Posts: 124
They had the league's worst bench last season. Brooks leaned heavy on the starters out of necessity. Their core 3-man group is Wall, Beal and Porter. But, Morris is important, not because he's good (he's not), but because what they have behind him is so bad. They should get a test there early since he's out with hernia surgery for the first few weeks of the season.

What happened to Gortat last season was interesting. His overall production went down, but that was almost exclusively because his touches and offensive opportunities went down. He had the lowest usage of his career, and his offensive plays plummeted across the board -- except for putbacks. He could be less important (and see less playing time) because maybe Mahinmi will be healthy.

I'll be interested to see what happens with Porter. He was good at everything last year, and freaky efficient -- great shooting from everywhere, almost no turnovers. He played something 450 consecutive minutes post All-Star break without committing a turnover. It was something like 3-4 turnovers total post-ASB -- something like 700 minutes.

I think Wall and Beal have plenty of room for improvement. Wall still commits too many turnovers and takes way too many 2pt jumpers. Beal shot great last season, but his all-around game has been pretty meh. If he shoots it the way he did, he's pretty valuable.


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 Post subject: Re: Wizards
PostPosted: Fri Oct 06, 2017 5:26 am 
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I dunno how bad the bench is now but it is probably pretty bad or worse. All the money in the starters.


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 Post subject: Re: Wizards
PostPosted: Fri Oct 06, 2017 6:35 am 
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Here is my 10 minute lineup suggestion (with Morris):

28 minutes Wall Beal Porter Morris Gortat
6 Satornsky Beal Porter Smith Mahinmi
8 Satornsky Meeks Oubre Smith Mahinmi
6 Wall Meeks Oubre Mahinmi Gortat

34 Wall Beal Porter Gortat
14 Satornsky Meeks Oubre Smith
20 Mahinmi
28 Morris

That's the whole rotation, baring injury, ineffectiveness, special circumstances.

Maybe you swap Porter into to third lineup and have another lineup of starters & Oubre. See what what those alts do and decide.


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