APBRmetrics

The discussion of the analysis of basketball through objective evidence, especially basketball statistics.
It is currently Fri Apr 27, 2018 4:35 am

View unanswered posts | View active topics


Board index » APBRmetrics » APBRmetrics

All times are UTC




Post new topic Reply to topic  Page 10 of 14
  [ 208 posts ]  Go to page Previous  1 ... 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14  Next
  Print view Previous topic | Next topic 
Author Message
EvanZ
 Post subject: Re: 2012 predictions
PostPosted: Tue Jan 10, 2012 4:35 pm 
Offline

Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 10:41 pm
Posts: 911
Location: Hotlanta
Mike G wrote:

Still, it's a bit dismaying how many regularly bad teams continue to be bad -- or even worse -- even those you'd think could hardly get any worse. Right now, Cha is headed for 13-53, Det the same, GS 19-47, NJ 12-54, Sac 17-49, Was 8-58 !


Competitive imbalance.

_________________
The City: A Golden State Warriors-Centric NBA Blog
NBA WOWY: Find statistics of your favorite team with any arbitrary combination of players on or off the court.
Top
 Profile  
 
Mike G
 Post subject: Re: 2012 predictions
PostPosted: Tue Jan 10, 2012 9:56 pm 
Offline

Joined: Fri Apr 15, 2011 12:02 am
Posts: 4038
Location: Asheville, NC
Just a day later, significant improvements all around:
Code:
7.23   JohnH     8.02   KP
7.52   J.E.      8.18   MG
7.59   ezPM      8.22   Vegas
7.70   Crow      8.33   DSM
7.71   ez2       8.38   zRA
7.74   dis       8.90   11py
Season at 13.2%
Top
 Profile  
 
Mike G
 Post subject: Re: 2012 predictions
PostPosted: Wed Jan 11, 2012 4:37 pm 
Offline

Joined: Fri Apr 15, 2011 12:02 am
Posts: 4038
Location: Asheville, NC
Now the avg error is 7.26, or twice the minimum possible (3.65), given the spread of predictions.
Code:
6.69   JohnH     7.47   Vegas
6.93   ez2       7.47   KP
7.01   JE        7.55   zRA
7.02   ezPM      7.59   MG
7.06   Crow      7.90   DSM
7.12   dis       7.92  '11py
Season is at .143, or 1/7
Top
 Profile  
 
EvanZ
 Post subject: Re: 2012 predictions
PostPosted: Wed Jan 11, 2012 4:50 pm 
Offline

Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 10:41 pm
Posts: 911
Location: Hotlanta
Seems like it's shrinking so fast.

_________________
The City: A Golden State Warriors-Centric NBA Blog
NBA WOWY: Find statistics of your favorite team with any arbitrary combination of players on or off the court.
Top
 Profile  
 
Mike G
 Post subject: Re: 2012 predictions
PostPosted: Thu Jan 12, 2012 9:10 pm 
Offline

Joined: Fri Apr 15, 2011 12:02 am
Posts: 4038
Location: Asheville, NC
Season at 15.5%
Code:
6.42   JohnH    7.15   Vegas
6.65   JE       7.18   MG
6.80   ez2      7.31   KP
6.81   Crow     7.39   zRA
6.89   dis      7.70   DSM
6.90   ezPM     7.77  '11py
Top
 Profile  
 
Crow
 Post subject: Re: 2012 predictions
PostPosted: Fri Jan 13, 2012 2:29 am 
Offline

Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:10 pm
Posts: 5114
Thanks for the updates.
Top
 Profile  
 
Mike G
 Post subject: Re: 2012 predictions
PostPosted: Sun Jan 15, 2012 4:38 pm 
Offline

Joined: Fri Apr 15, 2011 12:02 am
Posts: 4038
Location: Asheville, NC
ah, this is more like it -
Code:
6.37   JohnH      7.11    ezPM
6.61    J.E.      7.18   Vegas
6.84   MikeG      7.58    zRA
6.90   Crow       7.61   KevinP
7.04    dis       7.70   11Pyth
7.06    ez2       7.75   DSMok1
The median hasn't changed, but the order has.
.182 of season
Top
 Profile  
 
Crow
 Post subject: Re: 2012 predictions
PostPosted: Mon Jan 16, 2012 1:11 am 
Offline

Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:10 pm
Posts: 5114
At the quarterpole it might be nice to see more detail, i.e. the actual / pyth. projected win totals for the teams alongside the contestant projections and / or team by team variances between these two win figures for each contestant.
Top
 Profile  
 
Mike G
 Post subject: Re: 2012 predictions
PostPosted: Mon Jan 16, 2012 9:55 pm 
Offline

Joined: Fri Apr 15, 2011 12:02 am
Posts: 4038
Location: Asheville, NC
Pyth+ is team's current wins + (Pythagorean W%) *(remaining games)
For 17 of 30 teams, we have all guessed too high or too low, and this is shown. As games are won and lost, these lines affect the magnitude, but not the ranking, of the predictions.
For the 13 other teams, where pyth+ is within the range of predictions, every game won or lost changes the average errors' ranking in the bottom line.
Code:
tm   pyth+  all?  DSM  ezPM  MG  ez2 Vegas  JH   JE  zRA  dis  Crow  KP
Atl    47    lo    15   10   16   11   13   14   14   12   13   11   16
Bos    27    hi     9   15   14   16   12   16   15   18   13   14    8
Cha    13           8   11    9   11    4    0    5   11    9    5   15
Chi    54    lo    13    9    4   11    7    6    6   12    6    8    8
Cle    33    lo    12   14   12   11   17   15   15    7   14   15   11

Dal    43           5    1    1    0    1    3    0    0    1    2    6
Den    43           9    8   12    7    5    0    1    6    9    6    8
Det    14    hi    13    7    9    9    8    8   13   11    9    9   12
GSW    23    hi     9    6    6    6    4    3    6    5   10    4    3
Hou    28    hi     4    4    5    3    4    5    7    2    3    7    5

Ind    44    lo    10   12    6   11    7    8   13   11    9    7   11
LAC    40           3    3    2    1    3    1    0    6    2    1    0
LAL    42           2    1    3    0    7    2    0    1    6    1    8
Mem    30    hi     7    5    7    6    9    7    7    8    7   10    3
Mia    46           0    8    1    5    5    6    3    2    7    4    2

Mil    26    hi     7    5    4    6    6    8    6    7    5    7    6
Min    32           7   10    0    9   10    3   10    8    5    8    1
NJN    15    hi    12    9    9   10   12   13    7   11    7    9   14
NOH    21           4    4    0    5    3    1    3    6    3    6   10
NYK    32    hi     3    1    6    4   10    3    6    6    6    4    4

Orl    44           4    1    4    1    6    4    4    4    3    8    4
Phi    57    lo    22   21   23   21   21   20   18   21   23   20   21
Phx    28           1    7    5    4    2    4    1    0    1    0    0
Por    39           2    4    1    3    1    1    1    2    2    0    1
Sac    14    hi    15   13   16   12    7   11    6   11   11    9   12

SAS    45    lo     2    6    2    7    3    3    1    8    7    5    6
Okl    45           4    1    6    2    2    0    2    4    1    0    5
Tor    20           5    1    1    2    4    1    3    3    1    1    8
Uta    35    lo     7   10    5    9    9    8   10    8    6    9    5
Was     9    hi    15    7   13   10   11   13   12   14   11   13   10

err               DSM  ezPM  MG  ez2 Vegas  JH   JE  zRA  dis  Crow  KP
avg     7.00      7.7  7.1  6.7  7.1  7.1  6.3  6.5  7.5  7.0  6.8  7.5
John H is right on regarding Cha, while the rest of us were 4 to 15 wins too high.
Top
 Profile  
 
Crow
 Post subject: Re: 2012 predictions
PostPosted: Wed Jan 18, 2012 3:35 am 
Offline

Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:10 pm
Posts: 5114
Thanks for the extra detail.
Top
 Profile  
 
dudeimstoked
 Post subject: Re: 2012 predictions
PostPosted: Wed Jan 18, 2012 1:48 pm 
Offline

Joined: Fri Apr 22, 2011 5:10 pm
Posts: 2
thx for updates. i'm surprised that i'm actually doing pretty well.

_________________
http://www.apbrmetrics.com
Top
 Profile  
 
EvanZ
 Post subject: Re: 2012 predictions
PostPosted: Wed Jan 18, 2012 1:49 pm 
Offline

Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 10:41 pm
Posts: 911
Location: Hotlanta
So what you're telling us is that you're stoked? Are you from Northern California by any chance?

_________________
The City: A Golden State Warriors-Centric NBA Blog
NBA WOWY: Find statistics of your favorite team with any arbitrary combination of players on or off the court.
Top
 Profile  
 
Mike G
 Post subject: Re: 2012 predictions
PostPosted: Wed Jan 18, 2012 9:37 pm 
Offline

Joined: Fri Apr 15, 2011 12:02 am
Posts: 4038
Location: Asheville, NC
dudeimstoked wrote:
thx for updates. i'm surprised that i'm actually doing pretty well.
Dude, you're right at the average.
But just like every year, it's amazing how little we can improve on just repeating the previous year's pythagorean W%. That 'prediction' would be next-to-last among our entries, and none of us are more than 1.3 wins closer to the mark than that.

While most of us have successfully predicted a few major advances and a few major declines, these are mostly offset by teams which should have gotten better but didn't; and others which should decline but just refuse to cooperate.

Predictions based strictly on a 'system' don't seem to fare any better than those based on gut feelings; but I suspect there's great advantage in having an inside track on developments like: who is showing up out of shape, who has been able to perfect some moves, etc.

In other words, there's no shame in losing to Hollinger here.

Update: errors up for almost everyone; now ranging from 6.33 to 8.11
Top
 Profile  
 
Mike G
 Post subject: Re: 2012 predictions
PostPosted: Thu Jan 19, 2012 2:31 pm 
Offline

Joined: Fri Apr 15, 2011 12:02 am
Posts: 4038
Location: Asheville, NC
After a night of most teams doing what they're supposed to do, everyone looks better again.
Code:
avg err          avg err
5.80   JohnH      6.91    ezPM
6.39    J.E.      6.95    ez2
6.48   Crow       7.14   KevinP
6.52   MikeG      7.23    zRA
6.69   Vegas      7.41   11Pyth
6.81    dis       7.52   DSMok1
Top
 Profile  
 
EvanZ
 Post subject: Re: 2012 predictions
PostPosted: Thu Jan 19, 2012 2:53 pm 
Offline

Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 10:41 pm
Posts: 911
Location: Hotlanta
This is one of the reasons whenever someone criticizes JH, I take issue with it. Dude knows what he's doing when it comes to this kind of stuff. Whether it's pure smarts or having the resources or whatever. Respect.

_________________
The City: A Golden State Warriors-Centric NBA Blog
NBA WOWY: Find statistics of your favorite team with any arbitrary combination of players on or off the court.
Top
 Profile  
 
Display posts from previous:  Sort by  
Post new topic Reply to topic  Page 10 of 14
  [ 208 posts ]  Go to page Previous  1 ... 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14  Next

Board index » APBRmetrics » APBRmetrics

All times are UTC


Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Exabot [Bot] and 15 guests

You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum

Search for:
Jump to:  
cron
Powered by phpBB® Forum Software © phpBB Group