March Madness and my Player Rankings

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bchaikin
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Re: March Madness and my Player Rankings

Post by bchaikin » Wed May 23, 2012 4:25 am

for those interested in my college basketball player ratings & rankings - the top 200 players in the nation:

just curious - do your ratings try to account for defense aside from steals, blocked shots, and defensive rebounding? i ask as your ratings list big men like cody and tyler zeller plus meyers leonard above or similar to john henson, but henson was ACC DPOY two years running and had far better Synergy defensive numbers than the other three...

EvanZ
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Re: March Madness and my Player Rankings

Post by EvanZ » Wed May 23, 2012 12:00 pm

I like looking at the BLK:PF ratio:

Code: Select all

NAME	BLK/PF	BLK	PF
Anthony Davis	2.35	4.7	2.0
John Henson	1.81	2.9	1.6
Andre Drummond	1.22	3.9	3.2
Fab Melo	1.04	4.7	4.5
Kevin Jones	0.83	1.0	1.2
Kyle O'Quinn	0.83	3.3	4.0
Terrence Jones	0.75	1.8	2.4
Andrew Nicholson	0.68	2.6	3.8
Meyers Leonard	0.65	2.4	3.7
Festus Ezeli	0.63	3.4	5.4
Tyler Zeller	0.57	2.0	3.5
Henry Sims	0.51	2.1	4.1
JaMychal Green	0.47	1.5	3.2
Drew Gordon	0.45	1.0	2.2
Jared Sullinger	0.38	1.1	2.9
Jae Crowder	0.37	1.0	2.7
Royce White	0.35	0.9	2.6
Thomas Robinson	0.33	0.9	2.7
Draymond Green	0.32	0.9	2.8
Arnett Moultrie	0.32	0.8	2.5
Perry Jones III	0.26	0.6	2.3
Darius Miller	0.14	0.3	2.2

Statman
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Re: March Madness and my Player Rankings

Post by Statman » Tue May 29, 2012 1:57 am

bchaikin wrote:for those interested in my college basketball player ratings & rankings - the top 200 players in the nation:

just curious - do your ratings try to account for defense aside from steals, blocked shots, and defensive rebounding? i ask as your ratings list big men like cody and tyler zeller plus meyers leonard above or similar to john henson, but henson was ACC DPOY two years running and had far better Synergy defensive numbers than the other three...
Kinda. Players from the same team, not really, because all the weights (both positive and negative) will be the same (parts of the same team whole) - although their final overall adjustment will be different from each other depending on their overall rating per minute and their playing time. The player with a lower per minute rating may end up with a higher final rating (as long as their per minute ratings are relatively close) because he played more on that same team - the theory being he's doing more things (very possibly better defensively) that don't show up in their statline, which is why the coach feels he needs to be on the court more. If Henson played 5 more mpg than Tyler Zeller, He probably would have had a higher final rating. The fact they played very similar minutes - Tyler's vastly more efficient offensive stats weighed a little more than Henson's big block totals. The fact that they played pretty much the same minutes with Tyler often being in foul trouble (thus limiting his minutes) while Henson rarely being in foul trouble tells me that their coach may have seen Tyler's better offensive contributions as being maybe a little more important than Henson's better defensive defensive contributions. That's all theory though, that's how my overall ratings "saw" it.

However, a great defensive stat guy on a good/great team (Henson, Davis) will have better ratings than similar (or even somewhat better) defensive stat guy on a mediocre/bad team. On the college level - the final rating difference could be huge - comparing a guy from a top 5 program to a statistically similar guy on a similar pace bottom 100 program.

Overall, players with mediocrish to bad statistics per minute who play much more than one would expect are given a pretty large final ratings boost relative to team strength. That "intangibles" boost (for lack of a better term) imo is usually directly related to the player's defensive contribution (or the perceived contribution by their coach) not seen in the box scores. The opposite is also true - great per minute stats but little PT will have a large final rating drop - especially if from a bad team. If a guy has great per minute stats, but doesn't see the court much - he probably is a poor defender.

Unlike most counting metrics - my ratings will never have a Bruce Bowen anywhere close to being the worst player in the league. It also won't have a guy playing 18 mpg anywhere near the top of the league.

Mathketball
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Re: March Madness and my Player Rankings

Post by Mathketball » Sat Jun 02, 2012 7:23 am

Just wondering what are some of you guys think about Will Barton?

He scored as the top SG in the draft, on my scales (which I promise I will get around to posting) slightly ahead of Brad Beal. Obviously the knock on him is his slight build but there's definitely a precedent for guys like that to succeed, Rip Hamilton, Tayshawn Prince, and Reggie Miller to name a few. Also, at his weight he still managed to be an elite scorer at a high level of college basketball which makes me even less worried. Most projections have him as an early second rounder which IMO could make him the steal of the draft.

One other thing, he made significant strides from year 1 to year 2 which is obviously ideal for guys that go back for a second year. It's kind of funny if Harrison Barnes showed the same kind of progression he would probably be a lock for the second pick but somehow Barton seems to keep flying under the radar.

Statman, I saw he finished 14th on your college player rankings so I'm guessing you like him too?

kjb
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Re: March Madness and my Player Rankings

Post by kjb » Mon Jun 04, 2012 6:42 pm

Mathketball wrote:Just wondering what are some of you guys think about Will Barton?

He scored as the top SG in the draft, on my scales (which I promise I will get around to posting) slightly ahead of Brad Beal. Obviously the knock on him is his slight build but there's definitely a precedent for guys like that to succeed, Rip Hamilton, Tayshawn Prince, and Reggie Miller to name a few. Also, at his weight he still managed to be an elite scorer at a high level of college basketball which makes me even less worried. Most projections have him as an early second rounder which IMO could make him the steal of the draft.

One other thing, he made significant strides from year 1 to year 2 which is obviously ideal for guys that go back for a second year. It's kind of funny if Harrison Barnes showed the same kind of progression he would probably be a lock for the second pick but somehow Barton seems to keep flying under the radar.

Statman, I saw he finished 14th on your college player rankings so I'm guessing you like him too?
My system also likes Barton. I have him as the #3 SG behind Denmon and Beal -- about 10th overall in this draft.

My system also likes Crowder quite a bit.

Mathketball
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Re: March Madness and my Player Rankings

Post by Mathketball » Tue Jun 05, 2012 3:08 am

kjb wrote: My system also likes Barton. I have him as the #3 SG behind Denmon and Beal -- about 10th overall in this draft.

My system also likes Crowder quite a bit.
I agree on Crowder. He's the top SF on my scale (if you believe he really is a 3). Personally I believe MKG is the best SF but he's probably going to be undervalued on most metrics due to his relatively low usage rate thanks to the UK roster. Plus a good deal of his value lies in his defensive ability which isn't easy to quantify.

As for Crowder, I like him a lot. It will be interesting to see if he can really play the 3 in the NBA though.

kjb
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Re: March Madness and my Player Rankings

Post by kjb » Tue Jun 05, 2012 4:04 pm

I've research Crowder pretty extensively and I think he's going to be a good pro at either SF or SG, believe it or not. At Marquette, he was designated a 4, but that was mainly because he could do so much of everything. He's played on the perimeter his whole life -- HS, juco, and at Marquette. He's strong and quick and long-armed. Plus, he's a GREAT kid. Whoever gets him is going to get a real prize, I think.

browning
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Re: March Madness and my Player Rankings

Post by browning » Tue Jun 05, 2012 4:26 pm

Yea crowder measured pretty short last week... does you system take height into account at all?
Thats always one of the big questions around draft time it seems. You find a good guy but his height isn't ideal for the position.
Would love to see an analysis

kjb
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Re: March Madness and my Player Rankings

Post by kjb » Tue Jun 05, 2012 5:13 pm

browning wrote:Yea crowder measured pretty short last week... does you system take height into account at all?
Thats always one of the big questions around draft time it seems. You find a good guy but his height isn't ideal for the position.
Would love to see an analysis
In my research, length looks to be a more meaningful factor than height, and yes my system does account for it. Crowder's standing reach was 1.75 inches below average for a SF; 1.35 inches above average for a SG. His combined mobility scores (which is what I use) would be above average for a PG. His vertical wasn't great and his body fat was high, but he also was well-above average on the bench press.

I think he has the athleticism to be productive in the NBA.

Crow
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Re: March Madness and my Player Rankings

Post by Crow » Mon Jun 11, 2012 4:47 pm

Crowder seems to be one of a number of decent 2nd round prospects. I'd think he could find a rotation role of a team, maybe especially a good team looking for fit.

Statman
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Re: March Madness and my Player Rankings

Post by Statman » Wed Jun 27, 2012 2:35 pm

Sorry I haven't replied - I really wanted to do some unique stuff this year for the draft - but unfortunately life has been in the way, latest being an eye infection that has kept me from looking at a computer for three weeks. I'm not gonna do any real study for this draft - I am hoping in a number of months I'll get some stuff done and be able to look at this draft (and other past) drafts.

So, outside of Davis being a sure thing barring injury - I'm not sure how I feel about anything else.....

BTW, If Crowder can defend the 3 & 2 somewhat adequately - I don't see why he couldn't have a solid NBA career.

I believe Barton was highly reguarded outta HS, usually highly ranked HS guys have supposd NBA potential and measurables. Couldn't tell you what my numbers say, since I'm way behind on that work.

Statman
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Re: March Madness and my Player Rankings

Post by Statman » Wed Jun 27, 2012 2:46 pm

Mathketball wrote:Statman, I saw he finished 14th on your college player rankings so I'm guessing you like him too?
Really - Barton was that high? Shows you how long it's been since I've touched those spreadsheets.

I actually haven't done the FINAL college rankings - my last overall rankings was before the tourneys.

Glancing at his stats now - no red flags. Good pedigree outta HS, good height. Passes, TO rate not too bad for high usage (solid A/TO for none point). Athelticism stats for a wing (rebounding, steals, blocks) are quite nice. Not a rangy shooter yet - but very solid % inside the arc and draws fouls. Looks like a mid 1st rounder or better to me. He's statistically similar but more impressive than Beal (who I'm guessing is a year younger). Beal is supposedly gonna be some great shooter in the future because of his pure form - his results at Florida didn't show it.

Mathketball
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Re: March Madness and my Player Rankings

Post by Mathketball » Thu Jun 28, 2012 4:01 am

Statman, I believe Barton is 2 years ahead of Beal. If memory serves he spent a year at a prep school before Memphis. I was looking at some measurements the other day and found this comparison really perplexing.

Barton: Ht: 6'6" Wing Span: 6'9.75" Standing Reach: 8'7" Hand Lgth: 9"
Barnes: Ht: 6'8" Wing Span: 6'11.25" Standing Reach: 8'6" Hand Lgth: 9"

So how does Barton end up with a longer standing reach than Barnes? I figure there are two possible explanations. 1.) Barton has freakishly long arms and his wing span is less than Barnes only because his shoulders are significantly more narrow, which is likely because the knock on him is he's under weight. 2.) Barnes has an exceptionally long neck so even though he's 6'8" his shoulders aren't as high as Barton's.

It's probably a combination of the two, I just thought it was really interesting.

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