Statman wrote:I put my nation rating (100 around D1 average) and ranking (out of 2993 players) in "Impact" (ignoring games missed due to injury and or suspension) next to all your projections above - just for fun. My impact ranking is PURELY a performance ranking in college - it's not supposed to be a predictor of NBA success. But, historically, guys that rank higher in my ratings are definitely more likely on average to be successful at the next level. This last year's ranking (in HnR - which missing games hurts a player's ranking - "Impact = HnI" is the ranking on the far right for all players) of all D1 players:Mathketball wrote:With the draft a few days away I thought it'd be a good time to post my 2013 rankings. I have a base formula for evaluating collegiate players numbers that is tweaked based on position. I've made a few adjustments since last year and have been pretty happy with the results. Previously I was undervaluing mid major stars like Damian Lillard so that was one thing I addressed. Also, I revamped how I handle post players that can shoot 3's.
Also, it used to be that a score of 1.6 or above was elite. To make it easier to read I adjust my results so 1.6 is now 100. So basically anyone scoring over 100 projects to be a very good player. I account for height but currently I don't account for athleticism so guys that were really good college players that lack the athletic ability to compete in the NBA will be overvalued (John Surna and Robbie Hummel are examples of this from last year).
Also, on my spreadsheets you'll see a column for "Success to Failure" ratio. This is a stat I developed for evaluating how efficiently a player ends possessions. It's the ratio of possessions ended successfully to possessions ended with a failure. It's basically Ast to TO ratio extended to the full offensive game.
Here's my 2013 results:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc ... GR3c#gid=0
My top 5 picks would be.
1. Porter 186 rating, ranked 3rd nationally
1a. Noel 160, 26th
3. Burke. 189, 2nd
4. Michael Carter-Williams 165, 20th
5. Victor Oladipo 174, 9th
Guys I would avoid early.
Steven Adams 139, 144th
Shabazz Muhammad 125, 355th
Alex Len 144, 105th
Anthony Bennett 159, 28th
Reggie Bullock 153, 46th
Ryan Kelly 153, 48th
Lorenzo Brown 136, 178th
Nate Wolthers 165, 19th
Ray McCallum 147, 81st
Andre Roberson 155, 37th
Carrick Felix 132, 243rd
Chris Evans. 164, 21st
http://www.hoopsnerd.com/uploads/4-8-13 ... atings.pdf
Now, I'm curious what you think of my highest HnI guys that had GREAT seasons last year:
#1 Mike Muscala 194 rating 96 #19
#4 Kelly Olynyk 182 84 #38
#5 Erick Green 179 86 #34
#7 CJ McCollum 175 Sr Yr 83 #44 | Jr Yr 98 #18
#8 K. Caldwell-Pope 175 103 #13
#10 Cody Zeller 173 96 #20
#11 Mason Plumlee 171 84 #40
#12 Taylor Smith 171 76 #68
#14 Gorgui Deng 168 104 #12
#15 Pierre Jackson 168 94 #21
#16 Jeff Withey 168 90 #25
To comment on your post - I wouldn't drop Burke because there are other PGs - PGs who are ELITE in college in BOTH scoring and assist rate against good/great comp usually become good/great NBA players. However, wings are more a dime a dozen imo - although Porter is a STUD.
I can't really complain about your top 5 - looks as good as anybody's to me.
I agree wholeheartedly with your avoidees EXCEPT for Bennett - he was a true frosh. True frosh that are THAT dominant (they MOVED ASIDE - changed positions and gave more pine to their star from the previous year Mike Moser - BECAUSE Bennett was such an immense talent) HAVE to be taken seriously.
The idea of Len possibly going #1 makes me laugh - there are plenty of bigs in this draft that will have that will have better NBA careers if given the opportunity imo.
I'm cool with your sleepers except Brown & Felix - look at the 11 names I listed for alts (Green/McCollum/Jackson for Brown, Caldwell-Pope for Felix).
Great job though - I don't think people really how tricky it is to really separate players with similar looking college stats.
My NBA projections for college players is really down the road at least a month btw - still compiling the 15 years of college data. Didn't come close to my dream deadline of a few days before the NBA draft. Oh well.
Statman, interesting stuff thanks for the input. I posted my results next to the players you mentioned above. One thing to note, I have some duplicates on my big board for tweeners like I put in Bennett's SF and PF results. So you'll notice the rank I doesn't match the row number because of this.
My formula really liked a lot of the guys you mentioned. Muscala is an interesting one to me. He scored really well despite having a total of 23.125 in deductions. I think that speaks to how well he played this year and I expect he'll have a nice career in the NBA.
Plumlee, Olynyk, and Green were lower on mine but all still project has high second rounders.
Smith had 23.125 worth of deductions too so that's a big part of why he's so much lower on mine. Also, his FT% and the fact that he's 6'6" and profiles as a PF hurt him.
Other than that I think we're pretty close on most of those guys.
In regards to Burke, I agree with your comments and I fully believe he could be the best player in the draft. My point was simply that he's close enough to Noel and Porter that I wouldn't take him over them. In my past results I've had more PGs score really high that Wings or Posts so that's why I would value Noel and Porter over him. I strongly believe Burke will have a great career though.
As for Bennett, I think I was a little unclear on why I put him in that category though. Basically, I would be afraid to take him in the top 5. If I'm sitting somewhere around 7-10 and he's on the board I take him for many of the reasons you listed. Of the 4 players I put in that category he's, by far the one I like the most. Long term I wouldn't be shocked if Bennett winds up being the most undervalued player on my scales from this class. His lack of a definitive position hurts him on my formulas. At the 4 he's a little short but shoots it well form deep but at the 3 his ball handling and lack of assists would be a concern. He had a total of 6.25 in deductions which dropped him from about 22nd to 35th.
For that category I would be interested in Bennett(#35) around 7-10, Len(#62) and Muhammad(#56) 20 to the end of the first, and Adams(#99) mid to late second.
Agree completely on Len being a stretch at 1. I've heard the Cavs are a team that values analytics so I'd kind of be surprised if those rumors are true.
Also, I find it very interesting to see you had Chris Evans ranked so high. He doesn't seem to be getting much traction among the "experts" (ESPN doesn't even have a draft profile for him). I really like his game though, he's a guy that played for 3 teams in 4 college seasons and made dramatic improvements from his Jr to Sr year when he finally had some stability. He has legitimate NBA size and length at the 2 or 3 and is a big time leaper. He'll probably start next year in the D-League but he's someone to keep an eye on for sure.