2013-14 Rookies

Home for all your discussion of basketball statistical analysis.
Mike G
Posts: 4429
Joined: Fri Apr 15, 2011 12:02 am
Location: Asheville, NC

Re: 2013-14 Rookies

Post by Mike G » Sun Nov 17, 2013 5:38 pm

Rookies have suddenly surged to a projected 37 total eWins on the year. This is due to the discovery of several rookies previously unaccounted; including all Celtics rookies, which include those ranked #2 and #6 here.

Code: Select all

e82    per36 rates   tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk  e484
6.0  Carter-Williams Phl   37  .481   15.8   5.3   6.4   2.2   2.6   2.2   .7  1.33
3.9   Faverani,Vitor Bos   20  .526   13.1  11.6   1.1   5.0   1.4   2.8  3.1  1.18
3.6   Oladipo,Victor Orl   26  .457   16.0   5.3   4.6   3.7   2.1   4.6   .7   .84
3.1   Adams,Steven   Okl   19  .539   10.6  10.2   1.3   5.3    .8    .7  2.3   .98
3.1   Wolters,Nate   Mil   32  .435    9.3   3.9   4.8   2.1   1.1   1.1   .5   .56

2.3   Olynyk,Kelly   Bos   22  .470   12.9   8.6   2.7   5.8    .6   3.3   .4   .60
1.7   Mclemore,Ben   Sac   21  .484   13.7   4.4   1.6   3.5   1.1   1.5   .4   .49
1.7   Plumlee,Mason  Brk   16  .592   17.2   8.0    .7   6.0    .4    .7   .4   .94
1.6   Hardaway,Tim   NYK   18  .518   15.8   2.5   1.9   2.8    .7   1.0   .0   .51
1.4   Mekel,Gal      Dal   14  .500   11.1   3.1   7.0   2.4    .8   3.3   .3   .60

e82    per36 rates   tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk  e484
1.2   Zeller,Cody    Cha   17  .443   10.8   7.7   1.1   4.5   1.4   2.3   .6   .43
1.1 Caldwell-Pope,Ke Det   17  .494   15.1   2.3   2.1   3.6   1.4    .7   .0   .53
0.8   Gobert,Rudy    Uta   12  .327    4.2  15.5    .3   6.6    .9   3.8  2.1   .43
0.8   Withey,Jeff    NOP    7  .778   15.4   8.5    .8   3.5    .9   2.7  1.7  1.08
0.7 Antetokounmpo,Gi Mil   15  .593   12.3   5.8    .6   4.2   1.0   2.4  1.0   .39

0.6   Hummel,Robbie  Min   12  .500    9.7   6.8   1.4   4.4    .9    .4   .4   .44
0.4   Datome,Luigi   Det    9  .455   15.6   4.5    .8   5.8    .8   1.7   .8   .48
0.4 Christmas,Dionte Phx    9  .500   11.7   6.5    .7   3.9   1.3   1.2   .0   .41
0.3   Davies,Brandon Phl   11  .388    6.6   7.6   1.1   4.2   1.7    .9   .8   .27
0.3   Goodwin,Archie Phx   11  .369    9.4   4.7   1.4   2.1   1.3   3.0  2.1   .21
0.3  Franklin,Jamaal Mem    7  .500    7.7  11.2   1.2   4.9    .0   1.1  1.2   .57
We're now looking at 27 eWins from the East and 10 from the West.

Mike G
Posts: 4429
Joined: Fri Apr 15, 2011 12:02 am
Location: Asheville, NC

Re: 2013-14 Rookies

Post by Mike G » Sun Nov 24, 2013 8:34 pm

The season is now 16% completed. Rookies are summing to 39 projected eWins for the full season.

Code: Select all

e82    per36 rates   tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
6.2 MCarter-Williams Phl   36  .486   16.1   5.8   5.8   3.0   2.5   .9   1.37
4.1   Oladipo,Victor Orl   27  .492   17.5   5.8   4.1   2.3   4.5   .8    .92
3.2   Adams,Steven   Okl   18  .524   10.1  10.1   1.7    .7    .8  2.7   1.04
3.2   Faverani,Vitor Bos   17  .515   13.4  11.8   1.1   1.2   3.0  2.8   1.10
2.6   Wolters,Nate   Mil   28  .439    9.5   3.7   5.2   1.0   1.5   .6    .55

1.9   Mclemore,Ben   Sac   22  .493   14.1   5.4   1.6   1.0   1.6   .4    .53
1.8   Olynyk,Kelly   Bos   23  .451   12.0   8.9   2.4    .8   2.9   .5    .52
1.5   Plumlee,Mason  Brk   17  .588   14.0   7.5    .4    .7   1.1   .5    .67
1.4   Hardaway,Tim   NYK   15  .517   15.8   2.7   1.8    .8    .9   .0    .53
1.3 Caldwell-Pope,Ke Det   21  .429   12.6   4.0   1.5   1.6    .5   .0    .43

e82    per36 rates   tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
1.1   Zeller,Cody    Cha   19  .399    9.8   8.8   1.4   1.5   2.8   .8    .35
1.1   Goodwin,Archie Phx   13  .415   12.0   5.7   2.1   1.8   2.7  1.4    .52
1.0   Antic,Pero     Atl   14  .448   11.1   8.4   2.3    .9   1.8   .9    .68
0.9   Mekel,Gal      Dal   13  .500   11.0   3.6   7.0    .8   3.5   .3    .54
0.8  Thompson,Hollis Phl   14  .545   10.7   6.5   1.0    .8   1.2   .4    .41

0.8   Hummel,Robbie  Min   14  .447    8.9   8.3   1.6   1.0    .5   .2    .49
0.7   Withey,Jeff    NOP    7  .778   15.7   9.1    .8    .9   2.9  1.5   1.18
0.7 Antetokounmpo,Gi Mil   14  .559   13.0   6.2    .5   1.6   2.5  1.0    .41
0.6   Dieng,Gorgui   Min    6  .462    8.3  11.0   3.7    .7   5.8  7.6   1.00
0.6   Gobert,Rudy    Uta   11  .352    4.8  15.6    .3    .9   4.0  2.3    .40

e82    per36 rates   tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
0.5 Christmas,Dionte Phx    9  .543   13.5   7.2    .6   1.0   1.3   .0    .52
0.5   Burke,Trey     Uta   16  .485   18.0   7.0   4.2   1.1   1.9   .0   1.19
0.4   Datome,Luigi   Det    8  .483   15.8   4.5   1.1   1.2   2.3   .5    .41
0.4   Pressey,Phil   Bos   13  .340    7.0   3.5   5.1   1.7   1.9   .2    .21
0.3 Dellavedova,Matt Cle   16  .554    9.4   4.2   2.1   1.7   1.2   .0    .19

0.2  Franklin,Jamaal Mem    7  .500    8.2  11.5   1.2    .0   1.2  1.3    .62
0.2   Karasev,Sergey Cle    9  .500   13.6   5.1   1.3    .0   1.9   .0    .26
0.2 Raduljica,Mirosl Mil   10  .500    7.4   7.0   2.3    .0    .8  1.9    .37
0.2   Buycks,Dwight  Tor   12  .417    9.9   6.2   2.0    .8   2.3   .0    .15
0.2   Mitchell,Tony  Det    5  .500    7.6  11.4   2.4    .0    .0   .0    .80
Dieng has 12 blocks in 55 minutes. Trey Burke has played in 2 games.

Mike G
Posts: 4429
Joined: Fri Apr 15, 2011 12:02 am
Location: Asheville, NC

Re: 2013-14 Rookies

Post by Mike G » Thu Dec 05, 2013 3:14 pm

At .224 of the season, rookies project to 42 total eWins.

Code: Select all

e82    per36 rates   tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk  e484
6.8 MCarter-Williams Phl   37  .486   16.4   5.8   6.1   2.6   3.1   2.6   .7  1.39
4.8   Oladipo,Victor Orl   30  .502   17.2   5.6   4.3   3.3   2.1   3.9   .7   .95
2.6   Adams,Steven   Okl   17  .525    9.7  10.8   1.8   5.7    .8   1.5  1.9   .90
2.5   Faverani,Vitor Bos   16  .485   13.2  11.0   1.1   5.6   1.0   2.7  2.5   .90
2.2   Wolters,Nate   Mil   27  .454   10.2   3.6   5.2   1.9   1.0   1.5   .5   .62

2.1   Plumlee,Mason  Brk   18  .647   14.6   7.0    .8   4.9   1.1   1.3  1.2   .85
2.0   Burke,Trey     Uta   27  .479   17.1   4.6   5.1   2.4   1.0   1.5   .0  1.08
1.9   Mclemore,Ben   Sac   23  .487   14.5   4.7   1.7   3.3   1.2   1.8   .2   .48
1.7   Hardaway,Tim   NYK   16  .571   17.9   2.7   1.6   2.6    .6   1.2   .3   .67
1.4 Antetokounmpo,Gi Mil   16  .557   12.5   7.0   1.8   4.0   1.2   1.9  1.6   .72

e82    per36 rates   tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk  e484
1.4 Caldwell-Pope,Ke Det   22  .451   12.0   4.1   1.6   3.0   1.7    .6   .1   .42
1.4   Olynyk,Kelly   Bos   23  .451   12.3   9.1   2.5   5.6    .8   3.0   .5   .52
1.3  Thompson,Hollis Phl   17  .565   10.2   6.7   1.4   2.5    .6    .8   .4   .51
1.0   Zeller,Cody    Cha   18  .387    9.4   8.7   1.8   4.6   1.1   2.5   .8   .33
1.0   Gobert,Rudy    Uta   12  .429    7.1  15.3    .4   6.1    .9   3.4  2.5   .73

1.0   Snell,Tony     Chi   14  .604   14.7   3.1   2.0   1.6    .9   1.4   .0   .57
0.8   Antic,Pero     Atl   12  .455   11.2   8.0   2.2   3.3    .8   1.5  1.0   .66
0.7   Dieng,Gorgui   Min    6  .412    7.6  12.3   4.3   8.1   1.7   4.6  6.5  1.17
0.7   Mekel,Gal      Dal   12  .445   10.3   3.0   7.0   2.8    .7   3.5   .2   .40
0.6   Withey,Jeff    NOP    6  .750   15.8   8.9   1.4   3.7   1.5   2.4  1.0  1.36
0.6   Hummel,Robbie  Min   12  .427    7.7   8.7   1.4   4.7   1.4    .7   .2   .39
Trey Burke missed the first 12 games, and has played in 8 of his team's 20.
He's averaged .061 eW per game; if he plays in 70 games (i.e., doesn't miss any more) at that rate, he gets 4.3 eW for the year.

Crow
Posts: 6248
Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:10 pm

Re: 2013-14 Rookies

Post by Crow » Thu Dec 05, 2013 7:19 pm

e82 likes Oladipo a lot (in part probably because of his usage) but he is still bottom 10% on overall ws/48. Improved to bottom third on TS%, but still bottom 5% on TOV%; and. as a result, he is bottom 7% on Offensive Rating. A work in progress.

Bobbofitos
Posts: 306
Joined: Sat Apr 16, 2011 7:40 am
Location: Cambridge, MA
Contact:

Re: 2013-14 Rookies

Post by Bobbofitos » Thu Dec 05, 2013 7:54 pm

Oladipo passes the eye test with flying colors.

Only thing that is apparent to me is he's not a long term fit as a PG. Turnover issues even more than a typical rookie; watching him play, the dude throws haphazard passes and is fairly careless. His actual ball handling isn't bad, and he has great north/south drive, it's just he doesn't get the ball to teammates at the right time or spot.

To me, he should be a SG. He already is defending pretty well (for a rookie, playing major mins, that's impressive) but his poor ORtg is because he's been charged with running the offense... And he's ill-equipped to do that. Think Avery Bradley to begin this season, switching him over to the 2 improved his numbers and play.

Crow
Posts: 6248
Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:10 pm

Re: 2013-14 Rookies

Post by Crow » Thu Dec 05, 2013 8:01 pm

Oladipo's future is probably at SG but his performance at SG right now is worse at individual level than when at PG. Better team result. Stilol has a high TO% rate at SG, perhaps because he hasn't changed his style of play much when he switches positions. http://www.82games.com/1314/13ORL3.HTM#bypos The biggest stat differences between the position are his assist rates and his defense. He may be facing different quality of opponents at those two positions so it imay not be a simple even position comparison. These numbers could flip around in next few months and years as it has for other players. They will have plenty to analyze and use to tweak his position and role going forward. Right now is just splashing around, getting used to the different NBA game.

Mike G
Posts: 4429
Joined: Fri Apr 15, 2011 12:02 am
Location: Asheville, NC

Re: 2013-14 Rookies

Post by Mike G » Thu Dec 05, 2013 11:12 pm

Oladipo's TO/36 have dropped from 4.5 to 3.9 just in the last 11 days.
In the last 3 weeks, his effective shooting% is up from .457 to .502. That's from 2nd-worst among the top 10 here, to 5th best.

He likely got some heavy minutes a bit early, but the investment might have been a good one.
He's not quite an average player, according to his .95 e484. That's a distant 2nd to Afflalo among the Orlando guards.

Crow
Posts: 6248
Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:10 pm

Re: 2013-14 Rookies

Post by Crow » Fri Dec 06, 2013 9:23 pm

Wonder what Oladipo's RAPM will show, for this season and down the line. Boxscore stats being insufficient alone IMO in coming to a fully informed evaluation.

Mike G
Posts: 4429
Joined: Fri Apr 15, 2011 12:02 am
Location: Asheville, NC

Re: 2013-14 Rookies

Post by Mike G » Tue Dec 10, 2013 2:18 pm

Quick update at exactly the 1/4 point in the season.

Code: Select all

e82   per36 rates    tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk  e484
6.1 MCarter-Williams Phl   37  .486   16.5   5.7   6.1   2.6   3.1   2.7   .7  1.43
4.3   Oladipo,Victor Orl   31  .488   15.7   5.5   3.8   3.1   2.0   3.9   .8   .82
2.6   Adams,Steven   Okl   16  .534    9.4  10.7   2.0   5.8    .8   1.6  2.0   .93
2.4   Faverani,Vitor Bos   16  .490   12.7  10.8   1.2   5.6    .9   2.9  2.4   .89
2.4   Burke,Trey     Uta   29  .467   16.0   5.1   4.7   2.1   1.1   1.7   .1  1.03

2.2   Mclemore,Ben   Sac   25  .477   13.5   5.2   1.7   3.3   1.3   1.5   .3   .53
2.1   Hardaway,Tim   NYK   17  .595   18.2   2.4   1.8   2.4    .9   1.1   .4   .78
2.0   Plumlee,Mason  Brk   18  .657   14.6   6.7    .8   4.7   1.0   1.4  1.1   .85
2.0   Wolters,Nate   Mil   25  .438    9.8   3.8   5.5   1.9    .9   1.5   .5   .60
1.4   Olynyk,Kelly   Bos   23  .451   12.1   9.1   2.6   5.6    .8   3.0   .5   .58

e82   per36 rates    tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk  e484
1.4 Antetokounmpo,Gi Mil   16  .538   11.7   6.9   1.8   3.8   1.2   1.9  1.7   .68
1.3  Thompson,Hollis Phl   19  .571   10.0   6.6   1.4   2.7    .7   1.0   .3   .43
1.2   Zeller,Cody    Cha   18  .408    9.8   8.5   1.8   4.6   1.0   2.6   .8   .39
1.0   Gobert,Rudy    Uta   11  .427    6.9  15.6    .5   6.3    .8   3.3  2.5   .80
0.9 Caldwell-Pope,Ke Det   23  .445   10.5   3.8   1.4   3.0   1.5    .5   .1   .26

0.9   Dieng,Gorgui   Min    6  .432    8.7  13.3   3.7   7.8   1.5   3.9  5.6  1.42
0.8   Snell,Tony     Chi   17  .542   12.3   3.1   2.2   1.3    .9   1.4   .1   .38
0.7   Antic,Pero     Atl   12  .455   10.7   7.8   2.2   3.3    .8   1.5  1.0   .63
0.7   Hummel,Robbie  Min   12  .474    8.4   8.5   1.3   4.5   1.2    .6   .2   .47
0.6   Withey,Jeff    NOP    7  .714   14.0   9.3   1.8   4.3   1.2   1.9   .9  1.22
0.6   Mekel,Gal      Dal   12  .438    9.9   3.1   6.8   3.2    .6   3.5   .2   .33
Rookies on pace to total 41.6 eW for the year.

Mike G
Posts: 4429
Joined: Fri Apr 15, 2011 12:02 am
Location: Asheville, NC

Re: 2013-14 Rookies

Post by Mike G » Mon Dec 23, 2013 5:01 pm

Season at 33%, and rookies total 42.5 projected eWins for the year.

Code: Select all

e82    per36 rates   tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   PF   Stl   TO   Blk  e484
5.0 MCarter-Williams Phl   36  .486   15.7   5.5   6.3   2.9  3.0   2.6   .7  1.34
4.0   Oladipo,Victor Orl   31  .481   15.2   5.2   3.6   3.3  1.9   3.7   .9   .75
3.1   Burke,Trey     Uta   29  .481   16.3   4.6   5.7   2.3   .8   1.6   .1  1.06
2.5   Hardaway,Tim   NYK   18  .598   18.6   2.7   2.0   2.6  1.0   1.2   .4   .84
2.4   Adams,Steven   Okl   16  .510    8.6  10.9   1.8   6.5  1.2   2.0  2.3   .87

2.2   Wolters,Nate   Mil   23  .444   10.4   3.9   5.2   1.7  1.3   1.6   .5   .65
2.2 Antetokounmpo,Gi Mil   20  .563   12.3   7.0   1.8   3.5  1.0   1.8  1.3   .77
2.1   Faverani,Vitor Bos   14  .502   12.5  10.2   1.1   5.6   .8   2.8  2.4   .85
1.9   Plumlee,Mason  Brk   17  .665   14.7   6.5    .9   5.0  1.2   1.6  1.1   .83
1.5   Mclemore,Ben   Sac   26  .488   12.6   4.7   1.6   3.3  1.0   1.6   .2   .34

e82    per36 rates   tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   PF   Stl   TO   Blk  e484
1.5   Zeller,Cody    Cha   18  .427   10.6   8.6   2.0   4.5   .9   2.8   .9   .49
1.2  Thompson,Hollis Phl   21  .555    9.8   6.4   1.2   2.8   .8   1.1   .3   .36
1.1   Olynyk,Kelly   Bos   20  .452   11.9   9.0   2.7   6.0   .8   3.2   .5   .52
1.0 Raduljica,Mirosl Mil   10  .600   18.3   8.3   2.1   6.3   .5   2.4  1.6  1.19
0.9   Snell,Tony     Chi   19  .506   11.4   3.6   2.1   1.5   .6   1.5   .5   .34

0.9   Hummel,Robbie  Min   12  .483    9.4   9.1   1.2   3.5  1.0    .4   .1   .60
0.9   Gobert,Rudy    Uta   11  .409    6.7  16.0    .5   6.2   .8   3.7  2.8   .85
0.8   Antic,Pero     Atl   11  .504   12.5   7.2   2.8   4.4   .6   1.8   .8   .70
0.8 Caldwell-Pope,Ke Det   24  .458   10.2   4.1   1.2   3.0  1.5    .6   .1   .21
0.8 Dellavedova,Matt Cle   15  .594   10.8   3.5   2.8   3.6  1.5   1.0   .4   .44
East teams are looking at 30 eWins from rookies; in the West just 12

Mike G
Posts: 4429
Joined: Fri Apr 15, 2011 12:02 am
Location: Asheville, NC

Re: 2013-14 Rookies

Post by Mike G » Sun Jan 05, 2014 4:24 pm

Now at 40% of the season, the rookie class has cooled, slowed, missed time, or otherwise stalled of late. They now are on pace for 39 eWins.

Code: Select all

e82    per36 rates   tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk  e484
5.1   M C-Williams   Phl   35  .476   16.0   5.8   6.5   3.0   3.8   .8  1.28
3.9   Oladipo,Victor Orl   30  .485   15.3   5.1   3.9   1.8   4.1   .9   .76
3.1   Burke,Trey     Uta   30  .482   16.0   4.1   5.6    .8   2.4   .1   .92
2.6   Adams,Steven   Okl   16  .551   10.0   9.9   2.0   1.1   2.3  2.0   .96
2.4 Antetokounmpo,Gi Mil   23  .557   11.7   7.4   1.9    .9   2.2  1.2   .75

2.0   Plumlee,Mason  Brk   17  .625   13.8   7.2    .7   1.0   1.8  1.3   .84
2.0   Hardaway,Tim   NYK   19  .578   16.7   2.5   1.6    .8   1.1   .3   .63
1.7   Faverani,Vitor Bos   14  .495   12.0   9.6   1.0    .8   3.2  2.2   .78
1.7   Wolters,Nate   Mil   21  .443   10.0   3.7   5.1   1.3   1.9   .5   .57
1.5   Olynyk,Kelly   Bos   19  .483   12.9   8.7   2.8    .8   3.6   .7   .66

e82    per36 rates   tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk  e484
1.4   Zeller,Cody    Cha   17  .415    9.9   8.1   2.3   1.0   2.8   .9   .48
1.3   Antic,Pero     Atl   13  .528   12.3   7.6   2.9    .6   1.6   .9   .82
1.1 Raduljica,Mirosl Mil   10  .616   16.9   7.6   1.6    .3   2.1  1.2  1.01
0.9   Mclemore,Ben   Sac   25  .470   11.0   4.6   1.5    .8   1.8   .3   .21
0.9  Thompson,Hollis Phl   21  .538    9.1   5.9   1.3    .8   1.4   .3   .26

0.9 Dellavedova,Matt Cle   16  .596   11.0   2.9   3.0   1.5   1.4   .3   .42
0.7   Gobert,Rudy    Uta   11  .409    6.2  15.0    .5    .7   3.8  2.6   .79
0.6 Caldwell-Pope,Ke Det   24  .458    9.7   3.6   1.2   1.5    .6   .2   .17
0.6   Hummel,Robbie  Min   11  .466    8.1   8.2   1.1    .9    .4   .1   .42
0.6   Dieng,Gorgui   Min    5  .410    7.6  11.6   2.7   1.4   3.2  4.5  1.16

e82    per36 rates   tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk  e484
0.6   Snell,Tony     Chi   19  .474   10.2   3.5   2.0    .7   1.5   .4   .21
0.5   Murry,Toure'   NYK    8  .438   12.1   5.2   5.0   2.8   3.0   .0   .71
0.5   Withey,Jeff    NOP    6  .765   14.0   8.1   1.7    .9   1.4   .9  1.20
0.4   Buycks,Dwight  Tor   10  .451   11.2   6.0   2.9   1.7   1.8   .0   .55
0.3   Kelly,Ryan     LAL   10  .632   11.7   5.4   1.5    .0   1.5   .9   .46
0.3   Roberson,Andre Okl    8  .611    8.1   9.2   1.5   1.0   2.4   .7   .47
Some of these guys are getting more minutes of late; but it's largely been out of necessity, rather than from development of skills.

Mike G
Posts: 4429
Joined: Fri Apr 15, 2011 12:02 am
Location: Asheville, NC

Re: 2013-14 Rookies

Post by Mike G » Sat Jan 18, 2014 8:48 pm

Season at 48%, rookies total 38 eWins projected over 82 games.

Code: Select all

e82   per36 rates     tm   G   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk  e484
5.6  Carter-Williams Phl   28   35  .485   16.8   5.8   6.1   2.7   3.6   .6  1.32
4.2   Oladipo,Victor Orl   40   32  .495   15.6   4.9   3.9   1.7   4.0   .8   .79
3.8   Burke,Trey     Uta   29   31  .487   16.3   4.0   6.3    .9   2.6   .1  1.03
2.2 Antetokounmpo,Gi Mil   33   23  .531   11.1   7.2   2.2   1.0   2.5  1.2   .64
2.1   Adams,Steven   Okl   40   15  .541    9.6  10.2   1.8   1.0   2.2  1.7   .83

1.8   Plumlee,Mason  Brk   31   16  .624   13.3   7.1    .7   1.1   1.6  1.5   .80
1.7   Olynyk,Kelly   Bos   31   19  .496   12.8   8.3   2.7    .9   3.2   .8   .70
1.6   Hardaway,Tim   NYK   39   19  .572   15.7   2.5   1.4    .8   1.0   .3   .53
1.4   Wolters,Nate   Mil   29   20  .443    9.9   3.6   5.0   1.2   1.9   .5   .53
1.3   Antic,Pero     Atl   27   15  .549   13.3   7.2   2.3    .6   1.9   .8   .77

e82   per36 rates     tm   G   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk  e484
1.3   Zeller,Cody    Cha   41   17  .421    9.7   8.1   2.1   1.0   2.6   .9   .46
1.3   Faverani,Vitor Bos   34   14  .502   11.7   9.1   1.0    .9   3.2  2.0   .68
1.2 Raduljica,Mirosl Mil   25   10  .636   17.5   7.1   1.2    .5   1.8  1.0  1.01
0.9 Caldwell-Pope,Ke Det   37   24  .483   10.2   3.5   1.2   1.5    .6   .2   .23
0.9   Snell,Tony     Chi   33   19  .497   11.2   3.7   1.9    .8   1.4   .4   .31

0.7   Mclemore,Ben   Sac   38   24  .465   10.6   4.4   1.4    .7   1.6   .3   .18
0.7  Thompson,Hollis Phl   37   21  .532    8.7   5.7   1.2    .9   1.3   .3   .22
0.5 Dellavedova,Matt Cle   31   17  .579    9.7   2.7   2.9   1.3   1.5   .3   .24
0.5   Hummel,Robbie  Min   27   11  .456    7.6   8.3   1.1    .9    .4   .1   .39
0.5   Dieng,Gorgui   Min   21    5  .420    7.4  11.5   2.2   2.0   3.0  3.7  1.01
It doesn't look as if anyone in this group is going to be a star, this year at least.

Crow
Posts: 6248
Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:10 pm

Re: 2013-14 Rookies

Post by Crow » Sun Jan 19, 2014 5:32 pm

According to this

http://stats.nba.com/leaguePlayerGenera ... nce=Rookie

only 3 rookies playing 10+ minutes have raw team +/- on the court over +1 per game.

Olynyk is middle of the pack and moderately negative at around -3 per 48 minutes. Faverani is near the very bottom at around -9 per 48 minutes.

Mike G
Posts: 4429
Joined: Fri Apr 15, 2011 12:02 am
Location: Asheville, NC

Re: 2013-14 Rookies

Post by Mike G » Mon Feb 03, 2014 1:27 pm

At 57.4% of the season, the rookie crop again has peeked over 40 combined/projected eWins.

Code: Select all

e82    per36 rates   tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk  e484
5.4  Carter-Williams Phl   35  .474   16.4   5.6   6.0   2.5   3.6   .7  1.23
4.5   Oladipo,Victor Orl   32  .501   15.7   5.0   4.0   1.8   3.9   .7   .83
3.5   Burke,Trey     Uta   31  .469   14.9   3.8   6.2    .7   2.5   .2   .89
2.2   Hardaway,Tim   NYK   20  .598   17.2   2.5   1.4    .8   1.0   .2   .65
2.1 Antetokounmpo,Gi Mil   24  .529   11.0   7.0   2.3   1.0   2.7  1.2   .59

1.8   Olynyk,Kelly   Bos   18  .489   12.8   8.4   2.7    .9   2.9   .9   .75
1.8   Adams,Steven   Okl   15  .522    8.9  10.5   1.8   1.1   2.3  1.6   .73
1.8   Plumlee,Mason  Brk   15  .632   14.4   6.8    .7   1.4   1.6  1.8   .90
1.6   Wolters,Nate   Mil   20  .442   10.3   3.7   5.2   1.2   1.7   .5   .60
1.4   Zeller,Cody    Cha   17  .434   10.0   8.3   2.0    .9   2.3   .8   .51

e82    per36 rates   tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk  e484
1.4   Antic,Pero     Atl   16  .554   13.6   7.9   2.5    .6   1.9   .7   .84
1.2 Raduljica,Mirosl Mil   11  .620   15.8   7.7   1.4    .6   1.9  1.1   .92
1.2   Faverani,Vitor Bos   13  .498   11.7   9.3   1.1   1.0   3.1  1.9   .69
0.9 Caldwell-Pope,Ke Det   25  .483   10.0   3.5   1.3   1.7    .6   .2   .23
0.9  Thompson,Hollis Phl   21  .557    9.4   5.7   1.1   1.0   1.2   .2   .26

0.9   Kelly,Ryan     LAL   19  .565   12.3   5.2   1.8    .5   1.3   .9   .53
0.7   Snell,Tony     Chi   19  .478   10.5   4.0   1.8    .8   1.4   .4   .25
0.7   Mclemore,Ben   Sac   23  .471   10.7   4.5   1.4    .8   1.7   .3   .18
0.7   Gobert,Rudy    Uta   12  .488    7.4  12.6    .5    .8   3.1  2.6   .68
0.6   Calathes,Nick  Mem   13  .483    9.6   3.4   5.4   1.4   3.2   .1   .32

e82    per36 rates   tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk  e484
0.5   Withey,Jeff    NOP    9  .626    9.8   7.7   1.0    .9   1.2  1.5   .61
0.5   Murry,Toure'   NYK    8  .448   11.7   4.5   4.6   2.0   2.8   .0   .56
0.4   Dieng,Gorgui   Min    6  .416    7.0  11.4   1.6   1.7   3.1  3.4   .78
0.4   Hummel,Robbie  Min   11  .456    7.8   8.4   1.1    .9    .4   .1   .40
0.4 Dellavedova,Matt Cle   15  .538    8.8   3.0   3.2   1.3   1.3   .2   .20

0.3   Roberson,Andre Okl    8  .552    7.8   9.2   2.0   2.3   1.7   .9   .65
0.3   Larkin,Shane   Dal   13  .455    9.1   3.2   4.7   1.8   3.1   .1   .23
0.3   Len,Alex       Phx    9  .494    8.2  10.5    .2    .6   2.0  1.4   .41
0.2   Dedmon,Dewayne Phl   14  .521    7.6  10.6    .6    .0   2.1  2.0   .46
0.2   Buycks,Dwight  Tor   10  .451   11.1   5.8   2.9   1.6   1.7   .0   .54
Only one rookie in any minutes has above avg eWins rate (1.00 eW/484 min)
I see Win Shares likes 8 rookies at least this much, and with >150 min.
http://bkref.com/tiny/S0j31
PER agrees on 4 of the 8.

Mike G
Posts: 4429
Joined: Fri Apr 15, 2011 12:02 am
Location: Asheville, NC

Re: 2013-14 Rookies

Post by Mike G » Mon Feb 03, 2014 3:12 pm

Ranked by minutes played, rookies with >300 min.

Code: Select all

2014 rookies     tm   e484    PER   ws/48      rookies       tm   e484   PER   ws/48
Oladipo,Victor   Orl   .83   13.0   .018      Pressey,Phil   Bos   .06    7.0  -.014
Carter-Williams  Phl  1.23   17.1   .056    Dellavedova,Matt Cle   .20   10.1   .078
Caldwell-Pope,Ke Det   .23    9.4   .065      Plumlee,Mason  Brk   .90   17.0   .156
Mclemore,Ben     Sac   .18    7.6   .003      Faverani,Vitor Bos   .69   11.4   .043
Burke,Trey       Uta   .89   13.3   .028      Calathes,Nick  Mem   .32    9.2   .020
Antetokounmpo,Gi Mil   .59   11.7   .046      Kelly,Ryan     LAL   .53   12.1   .100
Thompson,Hollis  Phl   .26   10.5   .070      Antic,Pero     Atl   .84   12.3   .098
Hardaway,Tim     NYK   .65   15.4   .117      Davies,Brandon Phl  -.11    5.8  -.008
Zeller,Cody      Cha   .51    9.7   .025      Larkin,Shane   Dal   .23    8.9  -.020
Snell,Tony       Chi   .25    8.2   .055     Bennett,Anthony Cle  -.11    2.0  -.114
Adams,Steven     Okl   .73   12.6   .136      Goodwin,Archie Phx   .04    6.4  -.044
Wolters,Nate     Mil   .60   13.0   .035    Raduljica,Mirosl Mil   .92   17.5   .152
Olynyk,Kelly     Bos   .75   12.1   .061                  
Anthony Bennett's -.114 WS/48 is a value that's 10 times as negative as eWins' -.11/484
In eWins, zero is 'replacement level'. This tends to be around 6-7 in PER.

totals for these 25 players:

Code: Select all

e484    PER   ws/48
.54    11.4   .048

Post Reply