Steals, RAPM and Ignoring Position

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nbo2
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Steals, RAPM and Ignoring Position

Post by nbo2 » Fri Apr 11, 2014 3:06 am

A response to FiveThirtyEight's steal articles. It's really important to take into account position when it comes to steals and defensive value!

http://georgetownsportsanalysis.wordpre ... -position/

Crow
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Re: Steals, RAPM and Ignoring Position

Post by Crow » Fri Apr 11, 2014 5:04 am

That was a useful addition to the discussion.

another thing that would useful to see in this big data from visual tech world would be missed steal attempts, pts off missed steal attempts (immediately or eventually on that possession), overall steal attempt success rate and overall steal attempt net pt productivity. Same could be done for blocks, double teams.

colts18
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Re: Steals, RAPM and Ignoring Position

Post by colts18 » Fri Apr 11, 2014 12:59 pm

This methodology is flawed because I'm pretty sure the RAPM you are using, ESPN J.E., already has steals factored in it so you are double counting the stat.

jbrocato23
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Re: Steals, RAPM and Ignoring Position

Post by jbrocato23 » Fri Apr 11, 2014 3:51 pm

colts18 wrote:This methodology is flawed because I'm pretty sure the RAPM you are using, ESPN J.E., already has steals factored in it so you are double counting the stat.
"we can use a different measure of defensive skill, that is Defensive Regularized Adjusted Plus Minus, or DRAPM for short. This statistic is very similar to the new “Real Plus-Minus” stat that ESPN just rolled out."

Seems to me they are using the two year drapm from gotbuckets.com provided by talkingpractice.

nbo2
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Re: Steals, RAPM and Ignoring Position

Post by nbo2 » Fri Apr 11, 2014 4:30 pm

colts18 wrote:
This methodology is flawed because I'm pretty sure the RAPM you are using, ESPN J.E., already has steals factored in it so you are double counting the stat.


"we can use a different measure of defensive skill, that is Defensive Regularized Adjusted Plus Minus, or DRAPM for short. This statistic is very similar to the new “Real Plus-Minus” stat that ESPN just rolled out."

Seems to me they are using the two year drapm from gotbuckets.com provided by talkingpractice.
Yep, James is correct - gotbuckets.com DRAPM from talkingpractice.

colts18
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Re: Steals, RAPM and Ignoring Position

Post by colts18 » Sun Apr 13, 2014 3:37 pm

Your numbers seem off. This is what Kevin Pelton had to say about steals and RAPM. I trust Pelton because he has works for an NBA team and has a good reputation with the numbers. According to him, steals are one of the most valuable stats.
Larceny isn't typically a desirable characteristic in a mate, but RPM seeks it out. Rubio is an RPM All-Star, while Ellis and Smith both rate better than their reputations would suggest. But this trend is bigger than just types. Of basic skill statistics (not including stats that rate combinations of skills such as true shooting percentage), only 2-point percentage correlates more closely with RPM than steal rate.
http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/story/_/ ... minus-like

hoopthinker
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Re: Steals, RAPM and Ignoring Position

Post by hoopthinker » Sun Apr 13, 2014 10:50 pm

colts18 wrote:Your numbers seem off. This is what Kevin Pelton had to say about steals and RAPM. I trust Pelton because he has works for an NBA team and has a good reputation with the numbers. According to him, steals are one of the most valuable stats.
Larceny isn't typically a desirable characteristic in a mate, but RPM seeks it out. Rubio is an RPM All-Star, while Ellis and Smith both rate better than their reputations would suggest. But this trend is bigger than just types. Of basic skill statistics (not including stats that rate combinations of skills such as true shooting percentage), only 2-point percentage correlates more closely with RPM than steal rate.
http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/story/_/ ... minus-like
You trust someone that made the mistake you accused nbo2 of doing.
Pelton regressed RPM which is XRAPM hence has a boxscore prior to boxscore stats!
so he was the one that used the same information twice in the left side and the right side of the regression.
As for the original nbo2 analysis i think it was pretty solid.When he found that there was some kind of corrrelation betwwen RAPM for guards and steals he didn't infer causation as many analysts do these days.

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