Predictions 2014-2015

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bondom343
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Re: Predictions 2014-2015

Post by bondom343 » Thu Oct 23, 2014 6:41 pm

Wow, looking at the RPM estimates that would have to be a record (or close) for gap between 1 and 2 seeds I would think at 13 games. I assume OKC is factoring in Durant's injury?

bbstats
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Re: Predictions 2014-2015

Post by bbstats » Thu Oct 23, 2014 9:10 pm

Apologies for not including McAdoo and perhaps others, but here's where my GSW win total comes from (Though, below a certain minute%, players are gradually forced to roughly -3):

Image

sndesai1
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Re: Predictions 2014-2015

Post by sndesai1 » Thu Oct 23, 2014 9:18 pm

bbstats wrote:Apologies for not including McAdoo and perhaps others, but here's where my GSW win total comes from (Though, below a certain minute%, players are gradually forced to roughly -3):

Image
jordan crawford is currently a member of the xinjiang flying tigers
and jermaine o'neal is gone as well

jimmytonic
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Re: Predictions 2014-2015

Post by jimmytonic » Fri Oct 24, 2014 12:01 am

May I ask how you're calculating WARP/pWins from the RPM values? The same calculation I use with RAPM to derive WARP worked out horribly with RPM when I did a retrodiction comparing the two.

kjb
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Re: Predictions 2014-2015

Post by kjb » Fri Oct 24, 2014 2:02 am

I'm hoping to get projections done for the league. My approach is a little labor intensive because I suck at programming. :)

Projecting minutes is a pain.

Mike G
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Re: Predictions 2014-2015

Post by Mike G » Fri Oct 24, 2014 1:05 pm

jimmytonic wrote:May I ask how you're calculating WARP/pWins from the RPM values? The same calculation I use with RAPM to derive WARP worked out horribly with RPM when I did a retrodiction comparing the two.
Those pWins seem to result from the equation:
pW = (RPM + 3.06)*Min/1483


The season starts on Tuesday.
Anyone submitting a prediction should get theirs in before any team takes the floor.

Statman
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Re: Predictions 2014-2015

Post by Statman » Fri Oct 24, 2014 1:11 pm

kjb wrote:I'm hoping to get projections done for the league. My approach is a little labor intensive because I suck at programming. :)

Projecting minutes is a pain.
Ditto. Word for word.

bbstats
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Re: Predictions 2014-2015

Post by bbstats » Fri Oct 24, 2014 3:36 pm

Wins Created = Wins Above Average + 20% x 0.500 x Minutes/48
(then force-fit to pythagorean wins)

where
Wins Above Average = 82x(Normdist function of x=projected RPMxMinutes%, avg=0, stdev=12.247, cumulative=1)-41

So I just ran the following fix

Image

and the Warriors jumped to 1st in the West.

This includes 14 of their possible roster's players.
*scratches head furiously*

talkingpractice
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Re: Predictions 2014-2015

Post by talkingpractice » Fri Oct 24, 2014 5:45 pm

a lot of gsw's success this year may come down to removing jackson, and hence getting rid of all those hockey substitutions and the "barnes iso thing".

ofc kerr may put iggy on the bench (?), so idunno...

sndesai1
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Re: Predictions 2014-2015

Post by sndesai1 » Fri Oct 24, 2014 7:19 pm

fivethirtyeight just put them at #1 in the west with their RPM/WAR-based predictions

AcrossTheCourt
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Re: Predictions 2014-2015

Post by AcrossTheCourt » Mon Oct 27, 2014 3:12 am

Statman wrote:Who in this group is maybe the best at predicting minutes (% season minutes) for players? I think it'd be interesting if a bunch of us predicted the team results based on the same projected minutes for every player - and see how much our projections might vary despite the constant at individual minutes played.

Plus, it'd make it so much easier for me, because I STILL don't really know how to best project player minutes. And yes, I'm lazy - hoping someone will do part of my work for me...... ;)
When things die down I'll post my minutes projections last year and how off I was. If any of you saved your own minutes I'd do the same. It'd be interesting to see how this can be improved.

And it'd be cool to do predictions based on the same set of minutes....

bbstats
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Re: Predictions 2014-2015

Post by bbstats » Mon Oct 27, 2014 2:42 pm

Can't tell if anybody's keeping track of this like prior years? Anywho, here's my updated numbers:

Code: Select all

CLE	60.0
GSW	56.9
LAC	56.4
SAS	55.1
OKC	55.0
DAL	53.6
MEM	52.1
TOR	47.1
CHI	47.0
WAS	46.7
HOU	46.6
POR	46.2
MIA	45.1
ATL	41.3
IND	41.0
PHO	40.2
NOP	40.0
CHA	38.7
DET	38.2
DEN	37.0
BRK	37.0
UTA	35.7
MIN	34.8
NYK	31.3
SAC	29.2
BOS	29.1
ORL	28.2
MIL	25.4
LAL	21.6
PHI	13.7

sndesai1
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Re: Predictions 2014-2015

Post by sndesai1 » Mon Oct 27, 2014 3:18 pm

i can keep track.

here are my updated predictions using corrected rosters:

Code: Select all

SAS	58.5
OKC	56.8
GSW	55.8
CLE	54.8
LAC	54.8
DAL	54.2
CHI	52.1
MEM	52.0
MIA	51.8
HOU	47.0
WAS	46.7
TOR	45.4
ATL	45.1
POR	44.9
PHO	44.1
BRK	43.8
IND	41.0
MIN	39.8
NYK	38.0
NOP	35.5
CHA	33.9
DEN	33.4
DET	32.4
ORL	28.4
SAC	28.1
BOS	27.5
MIL	24.5
LAL	22.9
UTA	20.4
PHI	16.4

v-zero
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Re: Predictions 2014-2015

Post by v-zero » Mon Oct 27, 2014 10:58 pm

Here are mine:

CLE 60.5
LAC 59.0
SAS 54.6
OKC 52.7
DAL 49.6
TOR 48.5
CHI 48.2
GSW 48.1
CHA 47.3
HOU 45.8
ATL 45.5
PHO 44.0
MEM 43.6
POR 43.3
WAS 42.5
BKN 40.0
DEN 39.8
MIA 39.4
NOP 39.3
DET 36.4
NYK 35.6
IND 35.1
SAC 33.5
LAL 32.0
MIN 32.0
UTA 31.8
BOS 30.1
ORL 28.3
MIL 26.3
PHI 17.2

mystic
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Re: Predictions 2014-2015

Post by mystic » Tue Oct 28, 2014 12:17 am

Code: Select all

CLE    57.8
LAC    54.8
SAS    54.5
GSW    53.8
DAL    53.3
OKC    53.1
CHI    50.5
MEM    48.6
TOR    47.0
HOU    46.4
MIA    46.3
WAS    45.3
POR    45.0
ATL    43.5
PHO    42.6
CHA    39.7
BRK    38.6
NOP    38.6
IND    37.8
MIN    37.5
DET    35.5
DEN    35.3
NYK    34.3
ORL    30.7
BOS    30.3
SAC    29.9
UTA    29.0
MIL    27.3
LAL    24.6
PHI    18.4

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