Predictions 2014-2015

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RoyceWebb
Posts: 17
Joined: Fri Apr 20, 2012 1:50 pm

Re: Predictions 2014-2015

Post by RoyceWebb » Tue Oct 28, 2014 11:23 pm

For posterity, the ESPN.com Fall Forecast published earlier this month in another format and again today ...

East: http://espn.go.com/nba/preview2014/stor ... -standings
West: http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/11779 ... -standings

sndesai1
Posts: 133
Joined: Fri Mar 08, 2013 10:00 pm

Re: Predictions 2014-2015

Post by sndesai1 » Wed Oct 29, 2014 1:27 am

thanks everybody. i had to slightly scale a couple of projections to get the totals to 1230, but i don't think anything changed by more than 0.1.
here are the final values:

Image
Image


raw numbers (no scaling):

Code: Select all

Team  AcrossTheCourt  bbstats  Bobbofitos  Crow  Dr Positivity  fpliii  HoopDon  italia13calcio  Mike G  mystic  nbacouch side  sndesai1  v-zero  ESPN Summer Forecast  ESPN Fall Forecast  FiveThirtyEight  William Hill Sportsbook
ATL  41.08  41.30  41.00  43.00  45.00  44.04  44.00  46.00  43.40  43.50  42.00  45.10  45.50  42.00  41.00  44.00  42.00
BOS  27.97  29.10  26.00  28.00  20.00  21.66  30.00  32.00  34.40  30.30  31.00  27.50  30.10  28.00  26.00  32.00  27.50
BRK  32.39  37.00  34.00  41.00  39.00  39.65  36.00  39.00  34.60  38.60  36.00  43.80  40.00  39.00  40.00  36.00  41.50
CHA  39.53  38.70  45.00  42.00  38.00  43.83  42.00  45.00  41.50  39.70  32.00  33.90  47.30  45.00  44.00  37.00  44.00
CHI  55.00  47.00  49.00  51.00  50.00  57.70  54.00  55.00  41.80  50.50  53.00  52.10  48.20  54.00  53.00  50.00  55.00
CLE  60.04  60.00  65.00  57.00  55.00  60.05  60.00  54.00  63.00  57.80  59.00  54.80  60.50  56.00  59.00  56.00  58.50
DAL  48.96  53.60  43.00  52.00  52.00  55.60  54.00  54.00  43.10  53.30  58.00  54.20  49.60  50.00  50.00  54.00  49.50
DEN  41.51  37.00  42.00  39.00  45.00  31.04  33.00  41.00  42.00  35.30  32.00  33.40  39.80  38.00  38.00  34.00  43.00
DET  35.69  38.20  35.00  33.00  27.00  28.98  37.00  27.00  38.40  35.50  30.00  32.40  36.40  33.00  33.00  34.00  36.00
GSW  53.45  56.90  55.00  56.00  55.00  55.08  59.00  56.00  45.80  53.80  58.00  55.80  48.10  49.00  51.00  56.00  52.00
HOU  47.75  46.60  50.00  48.00  52.00  50.01  48.00  53.00  45.80  46.40  49.00  47.00  45.80  49.00  49.00  45.00  48.50
IND  34.72  41.00  40.00  37.00  42.00  38.05  34.00  34.00  31.50  37.80  41.00  41.00  35.10  38.00  37.00  41.00  33.00
LAC  56.57  56.40  61.00  55.00  59.00  60.04  56.00  62.00  58.90  54.80  57.00  54.80  59.00  56.00  57.00  55.00  56.00
LAL  25.74  21.60  27.00  25.00  21.00  26.36  25.00  19.00  33.50  24.60  19.00  22.90  32.00  30.00  29.00  24.00  29.00
MEM  47.19  52.10  46.00  51.00  53.00  51.79  50.00  47.00  44.60  48.60  56.00  52.00  43.60  49.00  48.00  48.00  48.50
MIA  43.22  45.10  39.00  47.00  51.00  42.74  45.00  40.00  35.50  46.30  49.00  51.80  39.40  44.00  45.00  47.00  44.00
MIL  24.94  25.40  25.00  25.00  36.00  22.15  20.00  31.00  27.40  27.30  24.00  24.50  26.30  23.00  23.00  29.00  24.50
MIN  30.75  34.80  28.00  31.00  22.00  27.76  39.00  30.00  36.70  37.50  37.00  39.80  32.00  26.00  28.00  39.00  28.00
NOP  41.14  40.00  36.00  39.00  38.00  45.98  36.00  36.00  43.90  38.60  36.00  35.50  39.30  39.00  41.00  38.00  44.00
NYK  34.93  31.30  38.00  34.00  39.00  35.77  24.00  37.00  39.20  34.30  30.00  38.00  35.60  37.00  38.00  31.00  40.00
OKC  54.74  55.00  51.00  50.00  55.00  56.08  57.00  54.00  51.90  53.10  56.00  56.80  52.70  58.00  54.00  54.00  53.00
ORL  28.48  28.20  23.00  27.00  19.00  21.89  26.00  19.00  26.80  30.70  30.00  28.40  28.30  27.00  26.00  32.00  27.00
PHI  18.16  13.70  20.00  15.00  14.00  14.42  17.00  14.00  11.40  18.40  21.00  16.40  17.20  18.00  17.00  20.00  15.00
PHO  49.24  40.20  53.00  46.00  50.00  41.92  45.00  52.00  47.10  42.60  45.00  44.10  44.00  45.00  45.00  44.00  43.50
POR  53.00  46.20  51.00  48.00  50.00  51.24  48.00  51.00  48.60  45.00  48.00  44.90  43.30  51.00  50.00  47.00  48.50
SAC  29.52  29.20  36.00  30.00  27.00  26.12  28.00  30.00  36.80  29.90  24.00  28.10  33.50  29.00  30.00  29.00  30.00
SAS  57.29  55.10  53.00  56.00  61.00  62.08  59.00  58.00  55.90  54.50  58.00  58.50  54.60  57.00  58.00  55.00  56.50
TOR  48.52  47.10  52.00  47.00  45.00  48.27  50.00  45.00  45.40  47.00  48.00  45.40  48.50  47.00  47.00  46.00  48.50
UTA  26.14  35.70  27.00  28.00  29.00  20.80  27.00  26.00  33.50  29.00  23.00  20.40  31.80  26.00  26.00  28.00  28.50
WAS  42.34  46.70  39.00  49.00  41.00  48.93  47.00  42.00  47.60  45.30  48.00  46.70  42.50  47.00  47.00  45.00  47.50

Crow
Posts: 6249
Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:10 pm

Re: Predictions 2014-2015

Post by Crow » Wed Oct 29, 2014 2:25 am

Thanks for tracking.

I think Royce might like having ESPN included, as a contestant or comparison benchmark. A Vegas benchmark is usually a popular inclusion as well.

sndesai1
Posts: 133
Joined: Fri Mar 08, 2013 10:00 pm

Re: Predictions 2014-2015

Post by sndesai1 » Wed Oct 29, 2014 2:42 am

yep, i agree. they're in the link in that post, i just didn't want to stretch the page out too wide.

once I'm just posting the rankings/rmse, i'll show all of it and probably last year's pythagorean% regressed toward .500 as sort of a baseline

AcrossTheCourt
Posts: 237
Joined: Sat Feb 16, 2013 11:56 am

Re: Predictions 2014-2015

Post by AcrossTheCourt » Wed Oct 29, 2014 5:27 am

That's really interesting. It looks like my predictions are fairly average which is ... good, I hope. I used a lot of my own numbers and research for this, so that's a little surprising.

One thing that confuses me is how people treat Portland. How did they get five wins worse? Core is young-ish, bench got a little better (their first big off the bench was Freeland ... as disappointing as Kaman has been he's better than that), and one reason they lost so few games to injuries is that they chose healthy guys (Wes has only had one season with missed games except for maybe his rookie season.) People have loved throwing around the Plexiglass theory, but that's only a one game drop and when I looked into this further I found the cause: teams who improve by 20 wins on average outperform their point differential by 1.5~ wins. That's why there's a one win drop. And the Blazers outperformed their expected win total by two, so if you're working from that baseline (real team strength, not raw wins) AND throwing into another one or two due to "regression to the mean" then you're double-counting things.

The Blazers had a good core in 2013, but they stopped trying after they were too far from the playoff race, JJ Hickson is a candidate for RPM's worst player in modern history, and they had arguably the worst bench ever. Throw in Lillard's development, and that can be 20 wins.

And then people often don't apply that same logic to the other improved teams like Charlotte. That team carved out a nice defense with a frontcourt of Al Jefferson and McBobs. And that's not more unlikely?

Another theory people use: Portland was worse in the second half. So what? That's not predictive of anything. Full season numbers are better. And then they beat Houston in the playoffs.

Small rant over. I projected minutes decreases for everyone but Aldridge, who would only play a little more and made no subjective tweaks. So I don't see the logic in them being that much worse. Some people have them with Houston now, but Houston lost Asik/Lin and got nothing back. Just wondering why some have them so low.

mystic
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Re: Predictions 2014-2015

Post by mystic » Wed Oct 29, 2014 7:55 am

AcrossTheCourt wrote:T
Another theory people use: Portland was worse in the second half. So what? That's not predictive of anything. Full season numbers are better. And then they beat Houston in the playoffs.
Actually, they played like a +3 team for the last 70% of the season, not just "second half". Once the Blazers stopped shooting 42% from 3pt, they fall back to their expected level. Using the Rockets series as some sort of "quality assessment" is rather odd, given the fact that overall they were actually slightly outscored and had a ton of luck in order to advance. So, yeah, based on full season data (and even something more) it is more than likely that they will not win those 50+ games again this season.

HoopDon
Posts: 32
Joined: Sun Sep 15, 2013 1:14 am

Re: Predictions 2014-2015

Post by HoopDon » Wed Oct 29, 2014 5:51 pm

One thing that confuses me is how people treat Portland. How did they get five wins worse?
1.) They seemed to significantly cool down as the season wore on.

2.) I don't like Lamarcus Aldridge, and think any stat that says he's awesome is wrong (which is pretty much all the good stats). So, I subjectively reduced his projected impact.

3.) Portland seems fairly fluky in general. I could be incredibly wrong about that (and all the above), but the suspicion was strong enough to cut their projected win total by 2-3 wins.

http://hoopdon.weebly.com/

J.E.
Posts: 818
Joined: Fri Apr 15, 2011 8:28 am

Re: Predictions 2014-2015

Post by J.E. » Wed Oct 29, 2014 5:59 pm

HoopDon wrote:I don't like Lamarcus Aldridge, and think any stat that says he's awesome is wrong (which is pretty much all the good stats). So, I subjectively reduced his projected impact.
Did you ever, you know... watch him play?

talkingpractice
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Re: Predictions 2014-2015

Post by talkingpractice » Wed Oct 29, 2014 10:20 pm

i really hope that Dr Positivity is wrong about MIN.

Statman
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Re: Predictions 2014-2015

Post by Statman » Thu Oct 30, 2014 5:15 am

talkingpractice wrote:i really hope that Dr Positivity is wrong about MIN.
I will be doing my projections a few days late - but I can't imagine MIN looking very good.

My college to pro projections doesn't like Wiggins much for a number of years.

Mike G
Posts: 4429
Joined: Fri Apr 15, 2011 12:02 am
Location: Asheville, NC

Re: Predictions 2014-2015

Post by Mike G » Thu Oct 30, 2014 12:49 pm

My Lakers prediction for 33.5 wins is highest among us and almost 9 wins higher than the mean.
The loss of Julius Randle lowers my expectation by 1 or 2 wins.

Code: Select all

2014 Lakers     e484  mpg  eWins
Carlos Boozer   1.50   26   6.6
Kobe Bryant     1.33   26   5.9
Jordan Hill     1.27   20   4.3
Jeremy Lin       .95   26   4.2
Nick Young       .97   24   4.0

Ed Davis        1.04   16   2.8
Ryan Kelly       .61   22   2.3
Wesley Johnson   .43   22   1.6
Julius Randle    .63   14   1.5
Xavier Henry     .56   14   1.3

Robert Sacre     .50   12   1.0
Wayne Ellington  .47    8    .6
Ronnie Price     .16    8    .2
Jordan Clarkson  .00    4    .0

. totals              242  36.3
Is 26 mpg (x82) for Kobe more optimistic than most are guessing?
His (arbitrary) 1.33 eW/484 would be lowest since his 2nd season (when he also went 26 mpg).

bbstats
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Re: Predictions 2014-2015

Post by bbstats » Thu Oct 30, 2014 1:32 pm

My predictions correlate LEAST with BobboFitos'.

CRAP!

nbacouchside
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Re: Predictions 2014-2015

Post by nbacouchside » Thu Oct 30, 2014 2:13 pm

bbstats wrote:My predictions correlate LEAST with BobboFitos'.

CRAP!
I thought similarly when I saw that mine only had a .7 correlation with Bobbo's.

AJbaskets
Posts: 11
Joined: Mon Feb 03, 2014 10:17 am

Re: Predictions 2014-2015

Post by AJbaskets » Thu Oct 30, 2014 9:51 pm

Wanted to drop my predictions here just for the record. One using ASPM (pre-BPM) and my Player Tracking PM, which is in a Beta stage metric using SportVu and Boxscore data.

Tm PT-PM Wins
CLE 56
MIA 50
TOR 47
WAS 46
ATL 45
CHI 45
IND 43
BKN 38
CHA 37
DET 37
BOS 32
NYK 32
ORL 32
MIL 30
PHI 19
LAC 55
GSW 54
HOU 51
MEM 51
OKC 51
SAS 51
DAL 50
POR 50
PHX 43
NOP 37
MIN 36
DEN 33
UTA 29
LAL 25
SAC 24

Tm ASPM Wins
CLE 62
MIA 40
TOR 46
WAS 42
ATL 44
CHI 39
IND 39
BKN 37
CHA 36
DET 43
BOS 28
NYK 40
ORL 29
MIL 29
PHI 17
LAC 55
GSW 49
HOU 48
MEM 47
OKC 58
SAS 56
DAL 49
POR 45
PHX 42
NOP 38
MIN 35
DEN 42
UTA 29
LAL 32
SAC 32

http://counting-the-baskets.typepad.com ... ition.html

Crow
Posts: 6249
Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:10 pm

Re: Predictions 2014-2015

Post by Crow » Fri Oct 31, 2014 4:34 am

Originally posted at your site Oct. 22, right? If so, I'd say add to the set.

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