Learning about / from the betting sphere

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Crow
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Re: Learning about / from the betting sphere

Post by Crow » Wed Dec 10, 2014 6:27 pm

College might be easier. Maybe more average Joe bettors to sharps, especially in March? But I don't watch college regularly, with the exception of one team last season.

Guys like you with a broad interest in college basketball might be rarer than guys who are one conference only or the NBA pack.

BigLeagueInsights
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Re: Learning about / from the betting sphere

Post by BigLeagueInsights » Wed Dec 10, 2014 9:56 pm

Crow wrote:First week of fake betting done. Rallied to get to a bit over 40% win. Had a plan to try to just bet the 6 teams I thought I knew a decent amount about (6 top teams for hoped for greater reliability), only when
they were home / away, favored / dog v opponent in such a way that the power rating difference and this season ats performance was favorable, lines fell into certain slots and preferably east vs west, but lines are pretty tight and I didn't find this conceived ideal too often. So I strayed a little or too much. It is tough and I am not finding it fun either, so far. But I'll see if my improvement lasts this coming week or fades.
Getting a feel for spreads takes a long time. Rest days are a big factor. Line movements are important to watch, and give a lot of information.

The Reddit Sportsbook sub is a very useful resource.
http://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comm ... wednesday/

Stick with it for a while Crow! You'll begin to understand patterns after watching lines move for a couple of weeks.

Crow
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Re: Learning about / from the betting sphere

Post by Crow » Wed Dec 10, 2014 10:51 pm

Thanks for the link. If I were more serious I'd study 5-10 times longer with more detail.

Went semi-bold yesterday and went 3-1.

Bet 3/4ths of "bankroll" today. Why not.

willguo
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Re: Learning about / from the betting sphere

Post by willguo » Thu Dec 11, 2014 6:58 am

Statman wrote:I really would guess finding good bets from much larger data sets - like college basketball - would be much easier. It just seems there wouldn't be all that much variance from a personal projected point spread & a Vegas line for any pro league.
In general, the smaller the limit, the easier it is to beat. Unfortunately, that also means it's less lucrative if you can beat it!

Crow
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Re: Learning about / from the betting sphere

Post by Crow » Thu Dec 11, 2014 8:22 am

I don't know anything direct about wnba betting but heard it might be worthwhile for small stakes.

Crow
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Re: Learning about / from the betting sphere

Post by Crow » Thu Dec 11, 2014 8:25 am

I kinda knew I was walking into it, bold Wed. was a disaster. But I guess I wanted that fake betting lesson.

willguo
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Re: Learning about / from the betting sphere

Post by willguo » Fri Dec 12, 2014 3:44 am

Crow - Is there anywhere we can see your plays or methodology? Am quite curious.

Crow
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Re: Learning about / from the betting sphere

Post by Crow » Fri Dec 12, 2014 4:42 am

I will share my plays in near future. Forgot to do so earlier today. I talked a bit about my planned approach above, but I have strayed quite a bit. Impatience.

At least one another poster here is fake betting. He / they are welcome to discuss their progress too.

thecorner3john
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Re: Learning about / from the betting sphere

Post by thecorner3john » Fri Dec 12, 2014 2:29 pm

Hey guys I'm a new user I think some of you follow me on twitter, but I've also just started fake betting, am currently using a combination of Simple Rating System, HCA, and rest days to try and make plays and am hoping to get more complex as I go. I'll let you know if I feel like I learn anything from the process, but I agree with Crow's premise that learning from guys like talkingpractice and william guo/vegas can help us learn about the NBA.
I really like the NBA Draft, I also really like numbers. I try and write about the two of them here: wingspanaddicts.com

Crow
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Re: Learning about / from the betting sphere

Post by Crow » Fri Dec 12, 2014 6:54 pm

Good luck!

Yesterday mostly offset day before for me. Up and down.

talkingpractice
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Re: Learning about / from the betting sphere

Post by talkingpractice » Fri Dec 12, 2014 7:17 pm

be careful, guys (iow "paper trade" for a long time first).

Crow
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Re: Learning about / from the betting sphere

Post by Crow » Fri Dec 12, 2014 7:58 pm

Yeah. I am very unlikely to convert for daily play. Futures? Still unlikely.

Crow
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Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:10 pm

Re: Learning about / from the betting sphere

Post by Crow » Sun Dec 14, 2014 8:38 pm

Progress report

Overall I am 20-24.
In last 7 days I am 16-12 for 57%. Obviously I opened slow.

Site won't give me more than 1 week of data, so here it is:

Date Event Bet Result
12/13/2014 NBA: LAC @ MIL 500 on LAC (-225) to Win 722 Final LAC (106) @ MIL (111)
12/13/2014 NBA: POR @ IND 300 on POR (-107) Give 4.5 to win 580 Final POR (95) @ IND (85)
12/13/2014 NBA: POR @ IND 175 on POR (-190) to Win 267 Final POR (95) @ IND (85)
12/12/2014 NBA: DET @ PHX 500 on PHX (-490) to Win 602 Final DET (105) @ PHX (103)
12/12/2014 NBA: CLE @ NO 50 on NO (-135) to Win 87 Final CLE (114) @ NO (119)
12/12/2014 NBA: LAC @ WSH 50 on LAC (-105) Give 2.5 to win 98 Final LAC (96) @ WSH (104)
12/12/2014 NBA: LAC @ WSH 70 on LAC (-136) to Win 121 Final LAC (96) @ WSH (104)
12/12/2014 NBA: POR @ CHI 25 on CHI (-135) to Win 44 Final POR (106) @ CHI (115)
12/12/2014 NBA: POR @ CHI 40 on CHI (-103) Give 2.5 to win 79 Final POR (106) @ CHI (115)
12/11/2014 NBA: HOU @ SAC 500 on HOU (-106) to Win 972 Final/OT HOU (113) @ SAC (109)
12/11/2014 NBA: CLE @ OKC 500 on OKC (-114) Give 4.5 to win 939 Final CLE (94) @ OKC (103)
12/11/2014 NBA: CLE @ OKC 250 on OKC (-185) to Win 385 Final CLE (94) @ OKC (103)
12/10/2014 NBA: NY @ SA 450 on NY (-105) Get 9.5 to win 879 Final NY (95) @ SA (109)
12/10/2014 NBA: NY @ SA 500 on NY (+534) to Win 3,170 Final NY (95) @ SA (109)
12/10/2014 NBA: NO @ DAL 400 on DAL (-105) Give 6.5 to win 781 Final NO (107) @ DAL (112)
12/10/2014 NBA: BKN @ CHI 500 on CHI (-700) to Win 571 Final BKN (80) @ CHI (105)
12/10/2014 NBA: LAC @ IND 750 on LAC (-103) Give 7.5 to win 1,478 Final LAC (103) @ IND (96)
12/10/2014 NBA: LAC @ IND 200 on LAC (-310) to Win 265 Final LAC (103) @ IND (96)
12/9/2014 NBA: SAC @ LAL 500 on SAC (-110) Get 3.5 to win 955 Final SAC (95) @ LAL (98)
12/9/2014 NBA: MIA @ PHX 45 on PHX (-105) Give 5.5 to win 88 Final MIA (103) @ PHX (97)
12/9/2014 NBA: NY @ NO 125 on NO (-275) to Win 170 Final NY (93) @ NO (104)
12/9/2014 NBA: NY @ NO 200 on NO (-105) Give 6.5 to win 390 Final NY (93) @ NO (104)
12/8/2014 NBA: PHX @ LAC 95 on PHX (-106) Get 7.5 to win 185 Final/OT PHX (120) @ LAC (121)
12/8/2014 NBA: DEN @ TOR 20 on TOR (-108) Give 9.5 to win 39 Final/OT DEN (107) @ TOR (112)
12/8/2014 NBA: ATL @ IND 500 on ATL (-105) Get 1.5 to win 976 Final ATL (108) @ IND (92)
12/7/2014 NBA: NO @ LAL 20 on NO (-103) Give 2.5 to win 39 Final NO (104) @ LAL (87)
12/7/2014 NBA: POR @ NY 35 on POR (-109) Give 6.5 to win 67 Final POR (103) @ NY (99)
12/7/2014 NBA: WSH @ BOS 500 on WSH (-163) to Win 807 Final WSH (93) @ BOS (101)
12/6/2014 NBA: NO @ LAC 25 on NO (-105) Get 9.5 to win 49 Final NO (100) @ LAC (120)
12/6/2014 NBA: ORL @ SAC 500 on SAC (-250) to Win 700 Final ORL (105) @ SAC (96)


I bet moneyline 40% of time in this period and went 9-5.
80% of the games bet included a western playoff ranked team.
I gave points 70% of the time I bet spreads and went 5-6.
Getting points I was 3-2.
On average I gave about 5 pts and got about 6.

Analysis or suggestions are welcome.

willguo
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Re: Learning about / from the betting sphere

Post by willguo » Mon Dec 15, 2014 7:37 pm

That's 28 bets on 21 games over a period where there were 60 games. That would mean ~600 bets or ~450 games over a full season. That's an astounding number - I've only seen crazies and ultra sharps do that, and most people who are doing 600 bets a year would have to be doing totals as well.

(Obviously extrapolating 60 game samples to a full season is not optimal.)

Crow
Posts: 6245
Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:10 pm

Re: Learning about / from the betting sphere

Post by Crow » Mon Dec 15, 2014 8:02 pm

I wanted some experience. I might high grade opportunities from here if I continue.

Have no interest in totals. Would really have to crunch the numbers to compete on that.

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