2014-15 MAX Ratings

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permaximum
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Joined: Tue Nov 27, 2012 7:04 pm

2014-15 MAX Ratings

Post by permaximum » Wed Dec 03, 2014 10:08 pm

I recently have sent a box-score rating to Neil for the prediction test (1979-80 to 2013-14 data). It's a blend that doesn't involve any kind of APM, RAPM etc. Pure box-score. The metric's prediction accuracy could be improved by 10%+ if I used previous 5 years' data. Also, if I used xRAPM too the improvement would be almost 20%. However I thought it wouldn't be fair to compare a metric that contains previous years' info or/and APM-type in it with other box-score metrics.

However this allowed the metric to judge player performances season by season (no previous years data) and additionally in the middle of a season (no APM type of data). It will be interesting to see the ranking changes at the player level throughout the season for a metric that uses blending approach . I will try to update it weekly.

Anyways, here' are 2014-15 MAX ratings. (The metric was generated using 1979-80 to 2012-13 data.)

Updated: 20.12.2014

Code: Select all

╔══════╦══════════════════════════╦═════════════╦════════════════════╗
║ Rank ║          Player          ║ Possessions ║ MAX(Per 100 Poss.) ║
╠══════╬══════════════════════════╬═════════════╬════════════════════╣
║    1 ║ Russell Westbrook        ║         776 ║ 7.26               ║
║    2 ║ Stephen Curry            ║        1736 ║ 5.75               ║
║    3 ║ James Harden             ║        1851 ║ 5.31               ║
║    4 ║ Anthony Davis            ║        1630 ║ 5.30               ║
║    5 ║ C.J. Wilcox              ║          22 ║ 5.22               ║
║    6 ║ Chris Paul               ║        1766 ║ 4.66               ║
║    7 ║ Damian Lillard           ║        1894 ║ 4.62               ║
║    8 ║ Kyle Lowry               ║        1782 ║ 4.25               ║
║    9 ║ LeBron James             ║        1738 ║ 4.12               ║
║   10 ║ Jimmy Butler             ║        1860 ║ 4.07               ║
║   11 ║ Kevin Durant             ║         491 ║ 3.55               ║
║   12 ║ Tyson Chandler           ║        1567 ║ 3.44               ║
║   13 ║ Marc Gasol               ║        1738 ║ 3.41               ║
║   14 ║ Brandan Wright           ║         988 ║ 3.31               ║
║   15 ║ DeMarcus Cousins         ║         995 ║ 3.27               ║
║   16 ║ John Wall                ║        1752 ║ 2.96               ║
║   17 ║ Tim Duncan               ║        1429 ║ 2.92               ║
║   18 ║ DeAndre Jordan           ║        1723 ║ 2.92               ║
║   19 ║ Kyle Korver              ║        1591 ║ 2.81               ║
║   20 ║ Patrick Patterson        ║        1379 ║ 2.81               ║
║   21 ║ Danny Green              ║        1624 ║ 2.75               ║
║   22 ║ Mike Conley              ║        1665 ║ 2.63               ║
║   23 ║ Wesley Matthews          ║        1805 ║ 2.48               ║
║   24 ║ Patrick Beverley         ║         851 ║ 2.48               ║
║   25 ║ Draymond Green           ║        1726 ║ 2.47               ║
║   26 ║ Rudy Gay                 ║        1693 ║ 2.46               ║
║   27 ║ Kyrie Irving             ║        1813 ║ 2.43               ║
║   28 ║ Paul Millsap             ║        1630 ║ 2.41               ║
║   29 ║ Kawhi Leonard            ║        1371 ║ 2.35               ║
║   30 ║ Klay Thompson            ║        1681 ║ 2.33               ║
║   31 ║ Andrew Bogut             ║        1028 ║ 2.31               ║
║   32 ║ Courtney Lee             ║        1446 ║ 2.27               ║
║   33 ║ Tiago Splitter           ║         201 ║ 2.15               ║
║   34 ║ Kevin Love               ║        1738 ║ 2.15               ║
║   35 ║ Blake Griffin            ║        1781 ║ 2.14               ║
║   36 ║ Joakim Noah              ║        1182 ║ 2.07               ║
║   37 ║ Amir Johnson             ║        1203 ║ 2.06               ║
║   38 ║ Jeff Teague              ║        1464 ║ 1.96               ║
║   39 ║ Darren Collison          ║        1549 ║ 1.90               ║
║   40 ║ Chandler Parsons         ║        1690 ║ 1.86               ║
║   41 ║ Harrison Barnes          ║        1589 ║ 1.80               ║
║   42 ║ Gordon Hayward           ║        1801 ║ 1.78               ║
║   43 ║ Kelly Olynyk             ║        1249 ║ 1.67               ║
║   44 ║ Jrue Holiday             ║        1660 ║ 1.65               ║
║   45 ║ LaMarcus Aldridge        ║        1836 ║ 1.64               ║
║   46 ║ James Johnson            ║         931 ║ 1.56               ║
║   47 ║ Paul Pierce              ║        1283 ║ 1.55               ║
║   48 ║ Jarnell Stokes           ║          67 ║ 1.55               ║
║   49 ║ Tony Allen               ║        1085 ║ 1.55               ║
║   50 ║ Al Horford               ║        1447 ║ 1.55               ║
║   51 ║ Rudy Gobert              ║         901 ║ 1.54               ║
║   52 ║ Terrence Jones           ║         230 ║ 1.51               ║
║   53 ║ Nicolas Batum            ║        1471 ║ 1.49               ║
║   54 ║ Rasual Butler            ║         891 ║ 1.48               ║
║   55 ║ Derrick Favors           ║        1382 ║ 1.46               ║
║   56 ║ Brandon Knight           ║        1716 ║ 1.46               ║
║   57 ║ Dirk Nowitzki            ║        1442 ║ 1.44               ║
║   58 ║ Tyler Zeller             ║         915 ║ 1.43               ║
║   59 ║ Shayne Whittington       ║          91 ║ 1.42               ║
║   60 ║ Trevor Ariza             ║        1888 ║ 1.42               ║
║   61 ║ Gorgui Dieng             ║        1375 ║ 1.41               ║
║   62 ║ Taj Gibson               ║        1010 ║ 1.40               ║
║   63 ║ Robin Lopez              ║        1357 ║ 1.38               ║
║   64 ║ Marcin Gortat            ║        1454 ║ 1.37               ║
║   65 ║ DeMarre Carroll          ║        1285 ║ 1.34               ║
║   66 ║ Carmelo Anthony          ║        1622 ║ 1.31               ║
║   67 ║ Jared Sullinger          ║        1404 ║ 1.29               ║
║   68 ║ Dwyane Wade              ║        1220 ║ 1.24               ║
║   69 ║ Louis Williams           ║        1189 ║ 1.23               ║
║   70 ║ Nikola Mirotic           ║         942 ║ 1.21               ║
║   71 ║ Zach Randolph            ║        1570 ║ 1.20               ║
║   72 ║ Kemba Walker             ║        1773 ║ 1.19               ║
║   73 ║ Pau Gasol                ║        1598 ║ 1.18               ║
║   74 ║ Isaiah Thomas            ║         915 ║ 1.09               ║
║   75 ║ Eric Bledsoe             ║        1777 ║ 1.08               ║
║   76 ║ Tobias Harris            ║        1848 ║ 1.06               ║
║   77 ║ Deron Williams           ║        1651 ║ 1.06               ║
║   78 ║ Joe Johnson              ║        1536 ║ 1.02               ║
║   79 ║ Kevin Martin             ║         536 ║ 1.00               ║
║   80 ║ Mike Dunleavy            ║        1555 ║ 0.99               ║
║   81 ║ Serge Ibaka              ║        1682 ║ 0.98               ║
║   82 ║ Dwight Howard            ║         868 ║ 0.97               ║
║   83 ║ Goran Dragic             ║        1627 ║ 0.96               ║
║   84 ║ Ty Lawson                ║        1870 ║ 0.94               ║
║   85 ║ Kyle O'Quinn             ║         521 ║ 0.85               ║
║   86 ║ Chris Bosh               ║        1514 ║ 0.84               ║
║   87 ║ Reggie Jackson           ║        1551 ║ 0.83               ║
║   88 ║ Devin Harris             ║        1199 ║ 0.81               ║
║   89 ║ Lavoy Allen              ║        1057 ║ 0.79               ║
║   90 ║ Ryan Anderson            ║        1404 ║ 0.79               ║
║   91 ║ Boris Diaw               ║        1438 ║ 0.77               ║
║   92 ║ Jonas Valanciunas        ║        1344 ║ 0.76               ║
║   93 ║ Nikola Vucevic           ║        1559 ║ 0.74               ║
║   94 ║ Markieff Morris          ║        1635 ║ 0.68               ║
║   95 ║ Cory Joseph              ║        1165 ║ 0.64               ║
║   96 ║ Mike Muscala             ║         156 ║ 0.64               ║
║   97 ║ Luol Deng                ║        1481 ║ 0.63               ║
║   98 ║ Tristan Thompson         ║        1249 ║ 0.63               ║
║   99 ║ Darrell Arthur           ║         860 ║ 0.62               ║
║  100 ║ Wilson Chandler          ║        1608 ║ 0.62               ║
║  101 ║ Jamal Crawford           ║        1295 ║ 0.60               ║
║  102 ║ Bradley Beal             ║        1035 ║ 0.55               ║
║  103 ║ Monta Ellis              ║        1782 ║ 0.54               ║
║  104 ║ P.J. Tucker              ║        1256 ║ 0.54               ║
║  105 ║ Ed Davis                 ║        1168 ║ 0.51               ║
║  106 ║ Jeff Green               ║        1662 ║ 0.48               ║
║  107 ║ David West               ║         588 ║ 0.47               ║
║  108 ║ Andre Roberson           ║         885 ║ 0.46               ║
║  109 ║ Hassan Whiteside         ║          47 ║ 0.43               ║
║  110 ║ Anthony Morrow           ║         991 ║ 0.39               ║
║  111 ║ Omer Asik                ║        1099 ║ 0.38               ║
║  112 ║ Anderson Varejao         ║        1132 ║ 0.35               ║
║  113 ║ Jeremy Lamb              ║         931 ║ 0.32               ║
║  114 ║ Matt Barnes              ║        1305 ║ 0.32               ║
║  115 ║ J.J. Redick              ║        1484 ║ 0.31               ║
║  116 ║ Meyers Leonard           ║         119 ║ 0.30               ║
║  117 ║ Jose Barea               ║         861 ║ 0.29               ║
║  118 ║ Terrence Ross            ║        1425 ║ 0.27               ║
║  119 ║ Jordan Hill              ║        1530 ║ 0.27               ║
║  120 ║ Amar'e Stoudemire        ║        1338 ║ 0.27               ║
║  121 ║ Tyreke Evans             ║        1601 ║ 0.25               ║
║  122 ║ Jerome Jordan            ║         396 ║ 0.25               ║
║  123 ║ Timofey Mozgov           ║        1336 ║ 0.25               ║
║  124 ║ Rajon Rondo              ║        1422 ║ 0.24               ║
║  125 ║ Andre Iguodala           ║        1421 ║ 0.24               ║
║  126 ║ Ben McLemore             ║        1666 ║ 0.22               ║
║  127 ║ Solomon Hill             ║        1620 ║ 0.21               ║
║  128 ║ Derrick Rose             ║         850 ║ 0.20               ║
║  129 ║ Larry Sanders            ║        1040 ║ 0.19               ║
║  130 ║ Arron Afflalo            ║        1654 ║ 0.15               ║
║  131 ║ Luis Scola               ║        1099 ║ 0.15               ║
║  132 ║ Channing Frye            ║        1746 ║ 0.15               ║
║  133 ║ Ersan Ilyasova           ║         692 ║ 0.10               ║
║  134 ║ C.J. Watson              ║         540 ║ 0.10               ║
║  135 ║ Manu Ginobili            ║        1131 ║ 0.07               ║
║  136 ║ Mirza Teletovic          ║         985 ║ 0.06               ║
║  137 ║ Omri Casspi              ║         721 ║ 0.04               ║
║  138 ║ Al Jefferson             ║        1661 ║ 0.03               ║
║  139 ║ Greg Stiemsma            ║          83 ║ 0.03               ║
║  140 ║ Pablo Prigioni           ║         930 ║ -0.05              ║
║  141 ║ Jason Terry              ║        1140 ║ -0.06              ║
║  142 ║ Nene Hilario             ║         866 ║ -0.06              ║
║  143 ║ Kenneth Faried           ║        1178 ║ -0.07              ║
║  144 ║ Garrett Temple           ║         695 ║ -0.12              ║
║  145 ║ Donatas Motiejunas       ║        1356 ║ -0.14              ║
║  146 ║ Giannis Antetokounmpo    ║        1425 ║ -0.16              ║
║  147 ║ Aron Baynes              ║         823 ║ -0.16              ║
║  148 ║ Mario Chalmers           ║        1526 ║ -0.16              ║
║  149 ║ Dennis Schröder          ║         814 ║ -0.18              ║
║  150 ║ Josh Smith               ║        1673 ║ -0.21              ║
║  151 ║ Evan Fournier            ║        1792 ║ -0.22              ║
║  152 ║ John Henson              ║         334 ║ -0.22              ║
║  153 ║ Wesley Johnson           ║        1570 ║ -0.22              ║
║  154 ║ Otto Porter              ║         924 ║ -0.23              ║
║  155 ║ Kosta Koufos             ║         670 ║ -0.24              ║
║  156 ║ Shawne Williams          ║        1229 ║ -0.25              ║
║  157 ║ James Jones              ║         174 ║ -0.27              ║
║  158 ║ Marreese Speights        ║         846 ║ -0.27              ║
║  159 ║ Tony Parker              ║        1140 ║ -0.27              ║
║  160 ║ Jabari Parker            ║        1443 ║ -0.27              ║
║  161 ║ Allen Crabbe             ║         646 ║ -0.28              ║
║  162 ║ Kostas Papanikolaou      ║         998 ║ -0.30              ║
║  163 ║ DeMar DeRozan            ║        1039 ║ -0.30              ║
║  164 ║ James Young              ║          37 ║ -0.31              ║
║  165 ║ Brandon Jennings         ║        1334 ║ -0.32              ║
║  166 ║ Jeff Withey              ║         205 ║ -0.35              ║
║  167 ║ Matt Bonner              ║         732 ║ -0.35              ║
║  168 ║ Donald Sloan             ║        1245 ║ -0.36              ║
║  169 ║ Robert Covington         ║         695 ║ -0.37              ║
║  170 ║ Isaiah Canaan            ║         639 ║ -0.37              ║
║  171 ║ Gerald Green             ║        1240 ║ -0.38              ║
║  172 ║ Kobe Bryant              ║        1821 ║ -0.40              ║
║  173 ║ Roy Hibbert              ║        1143 ║ -0.41              ║
║  174 ║ Beno Udrih               ║         850 ║ -0.44              ║
║  175 ║ Greg Monroe              ║        1411 ║ -0.44              ║
║  176 ║ Jonas Jerebko            ║         634 ║ -0.46              ║
║  177 ║ Rodney Stuckey           ║         925 ║ -0.48              ║
║  178 ║ Danilo Gallinari         ║         848 ║ -0.48              ║
║  179 ║ Tyler Hansbrough         ║         581 ║ -0.49              ║
║  180 ║ Miles Plumlee            ║        1216 ║ -0.50              ║
║  181 ║ Jose Calderon            ║         842 ║ -0.52              ║
║  182 ║ Marco Belinelli          ║         772 ║ -0.53              ║
║  183 ║ Jared Dudley             ║        1065 ║ -0.55              ║
║  184 ║ Corey Brewer             ║        1359 ║ -0.56              ║
║  185 ║ Victor Oladipo           ║        1235 ║ -0.56              ║
║  186 ║ Aaron Brooks             ║         978 ║ -0.56              ║
║  187 ║ Alexey Shved             ║         577 ║ -0.57              ║
║  188 ║ Steven Adams             ║        1280 ║ -0.58              ║
║  189 ║ Landry Fields            ║         284 ║ -0.58              ║
║  190 ║ Ryan Hollins             ║         343 ║ -0.61              ║
║  191 ║ Bismack Biyombo          ║         503 ║ -0.61              ║
║  192 ║ Ian Mahinmi              ║         706 ║ -0.61              ║
║  193 ║ Alex Len                 ║         989 ║ -0.62              ║
║  194 ║ Steve Blake              ║        1160 ║ -0.63              ║
║  195 ║ Andre Drummond           ║        1558 ║ -0.64              ║
║  196 ║ Shabazz Muhammad         ║         991 ║ -0.66              ║
║  197 ║ Marcus Morris            ║        1312 ║ -0.66              ║
║  198 ║ Marcus Smart             ║         389 ║ -0.67              ║
║  199 ║ Mason Plumlee            ║         870 ║ -0.70              ║
║  200 ║ Cole Aldrich             ║         322 ║ -0.71              ║
║  201 ║ Khris Middleton          ║        1095 ║ -0.71              ║
║  202 ║ Zaza Pachulia            ║        1022 ║ -0.72              ║
║  203 ║ Alec Burks               ║        1575 ║ -0.74              ║
║  204 ║ Kevin Garnett            ║         958 ║ -0.77              ║
║  205 ║ Nick Collison            ║         850 ║ -0.79              ║
║  206 ║ Kyle Singler             ║        1199 ║ -0.80              ║
║  207 ║ Jameer Nelson            ║        1142 ║ -0.80              ║
║  208 ║ Jae Crowder              ║         518 ║ -0.80              ║
║  209 ║ Al-Farouq Aminu          ║         818 ║ -0.82              ║
║  210 ║ Shaun Livingston         ║         902 ║ -0.83              ║
║  211 ║ Andre Miller             ║         598 ║ -0.84              ║
║  212 ║ Spencer Hawes            ║         733 ║ -0.85              ║
║  213 ║ Michael Kidd-Gilchrist   ║         547 ║ -0.87              ║
║  214 ║ Carl Landry              ║         948 ║ -0.88              ║
║  215 ║ Brook Lopez              ║         920 ║ -0.93              ║
║  216 ║ Cody Zeller              ║        1189 ║ -0.93              ║
║  217 ║ Hedo Turkoglu            ║         386 ║ -0.95              ║
║  218 ║ Jason Thompson           ║        1367 ║ -1.01              ║
║  219 ║ Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ║        1687 ║ -1.02              ║
║  220 ║ Chuck Hayes              ║         274 ║ -1.03              ║
║  221 ║ A.J. Price               ║         402 ║ -1.03              ║
║  222 ║ Reggie Evans             ║         677 ║ -1.06              ║
║  223 ║ Shawn Marion             ║        1140 ║ -1.08              ║
║  224 ║ Aaron Gordon             ║         318 ║ -1.09              ║
║  225 ║ Bojan Bogdanovic         ║        1272 ║ -1.10              ║
║  226 ║ Mike Scott               ║         664 ║ -1.11              ║
║  227 ║ Randy Foye               ║         418 ║ -1.12              ║
║  228 ║ Tayshaun Prince          ║         689 ║ -1.12              ║
║  229 ║ O.J. Mayo                ║        1282 ║ -1.14              ║
║  230 ║ Eric Gordon              ║         718 ║ -1.14              ║
║  231 ║ Greg Smith               ║         133 ║ -1.14              ║
║  232 ║ Jeremy Lin               ║        1431 ║ -1.14              ║
║  233 ║ Greivis Vasquez          ║        1097 ║ -1.15              ║
║  234 ║ Evan Turner              ║        1143 ║ -1.15              ║
║  235 ║ Marvin Williams          ║        1125 ║ -1.16              ║
║  236 ║ Iman Shumpert            ║        1165 ║ -1.17              ║
║  237 ║ Enes Kanter              ║        1390 ║ -1.18              ║
║  238 ║ Ricky Rubio              ║         288 ║ -1.20              ║
║  239 ║ Tony Wroten              ║        1183 ║ -1.20              ║
║  240 ║ Ryan Kelly               ║          49 ║ -1.22              ║
║  241 ║ Jodie Meeks              ║         224 ║ -1.22              ║
║  242 ║ Nick Young               ║         780 ║ -1.22              ║
║  243 ║ Kirk Hinrich             ║        1305 ║ -1.24              ║
║  244 ║ Alonzo Gee               ║         518 ║ -1.25              ║
║  245 ║ Tarik Black              ║         753 ║ -1.25              ║
║  246 ║ Gary Neal                ║         928 ║ -1.28              ║
║  247 ║ Jon Leuer                ║         716 ║ -1.28              ║
║  248 ║ Jarrett Jack             ║        1200 ║ -1.29              ║
║  249 ║ Sergey Karasev           ║         337 ║ -1.31              ║
║  250 ║ Jordan Adams             ║          78 ║ -1.32              ║
║  251 ║ Thaddeus Young           ║        1299 ║ -1.34              ║
║  252 ║ James Ennis              ║         653 ║ -1.34              ║
║  253 ║ Sebastian Telfair        ║         632 ║ -1.34              ║
║  254 ║ Joel Freeland            ║         506 ║ -1.37              ║
║  255 ║ Jerryd Bayless           ║        1048 ║ -1.37              ║
║  256 ║ Kris Humphries           ║        1008 ║ -1.37              ║
║  257 ║ J.J. Hickson             ║         684 ║ -1.38              ║
║  258 ║ Carlos Boozer            ║        1311 ║ -1.40              ║
║  259 ║ Drew Gooden              ║         459 ║ -1.40              ║
║  260 ║ Lance Stephenson         ║        1573 ║ -1.41              ║
║  261 ║ Thabo Sefolosha          ║         835 ║ -1.44              ║
║  262 ║ Michael Carter-Williams  ║        1232 ║ -1.44              ║
║  263 ║ Avery Bradley            ║        1416 ║ -1.45              ║
║  264 ║ Brandon Bass             ║         950 ║ -1.47              ║
║  265 ║ Dante Cunningham         ║         425 ║ -1.48              ║
║  266 ║ Quincy Acy               ║        1010 ║ -1.48              ║
║  267 ║ Dewayne Dedmon           ║         426 ║ -1.49              ║
║  268 ║ Wayne Ellington          ║         637 ║ -1.50              ║
║  269 ║ Chris Kaman              ║         998 ║ -1.50              ║
║  270 ║ Vince Carter             ║         758 ║ -1.51              ║
║  271 ║ Leandro Barbosa          ║         538 ║ -1.51              ║
║  272 ║ Nerlens Noel             ║        1355 ║ -1.52              ║
║  273 ║ K.J. McDaniels           ║        1226 ║ -1.55              ║
║  274 ║ Pero Antic               ║         648 ║ -1.56              ║
║  275 ║ Shane Larkin             ║        1096 ║ -1.56              ║
║  276 ║ Trey Burke               ║        1637 ║ -1.56              ║
║  277 ║ Jeff Adrien              ║         208 ║ -1.57              ║
║  278 ║ C.J. McCollum            ║         332 ║ -1.59              ║
║  279 ║ Elton Brand              ║         183 ║ -1.59              ║
║  280 ║ Trevor Booker            ║        1011 ║ -1.65              ║
║  281 ║ Hollis Thompson          ║        1416 ║ -1.66              ║
║  282 ║ Austin Rivers            ║        1089 ║ -1.69              ║
║  283 ║ Alexis Ajinca            ║         315 ║ -1.70              ║
║  284 ║ Luke Babbitt             ║         649 ║ -1.71              ║
║  285 ║ Jeff Ayres               ║         283 ║ -1.71              ║
║  286 ║ Marcus Thornton          ║         627 ║ -1.72              ║
║  287 ║ Matthew Dellavedova      ║         381 ║ -1.73              ║
║  288 ║ Gerald Henderson         ║        1106 ║ -1.75              ║
║  289 ║ Jusuf Nurkic             ║         304 ║ -1.75              ║
║  290 ║ Quincy Pondexter         ║         752 ║ -1.78              ║
║  291 ║ Alan Anderson            ║         958 ║ -1.82              ║
║  292 ║ Festus Ezeli             ║         440 ║ -1.82              ║
║  293 ║ Dorell Wright            ║         170 ║ -1.85              ║
║  294 ║ Caron Butler             ║        1255 ║ -1.87              ║
║  295 ║ Josh McRoberts           ║         552 ║ -1.87              ║
║  296 ║ Luc Mbah a Moute         ║        1353 ║ -1.87              ║
║  297 ║ Samuel Dalembert         ║         882 ║ -1.88              ║
║  298 ║ Maurice Harkless         ║         496 ║ -1.88              ║
║  299 ║ Richard Jefferson        ║         567 ║ -1.91              ║
║  300 ║ Norris Cole              ║        1098 ║ -1.95              ║
║  301 ║ Brian Roberts            ║         858 ║ -2.00              ║
║  302 ║ Henry Sims               ║        1193 ║ -2.03              ║
║  303 ║ Shelvin Mack             ║         613 ║ -2.04              ║
║  304 ║ Kevin Seraphin           ║         703 ║ -2.04              ║
║  305 ║ Glen Davis               ║         443 ║ -2.04              ║
║  306 ║ Elfrid Payton            ║        1362 ║ -2.05              ║
║  307 ║ Ronnie Price             ║        1039 ║ -2.07              ║
║  308 ║ Shabazz Napier           ║         977 ║ -2.08              ║
║  309 ║ Joey Dorsey              ║         432 ║ -2.10              ║
║  310 ║ Chris Copeland           ║        1170 ║ -2.10              ║
║  311 ║ Phil Pressey             ║         445 ║ -2.10              ║
║  312 ║ Luke Ridnour             ║         511 ║ -2.12              ║
║  313 ║ Chris Andersen           ║         418 ║ -2.12              ║
║  314 ║ Kendrick Perkins         ║        1010 ║ -2.13              ║
║  315 ║ Nikola Pekovic           ║         480 ║ -2.14              ║
║  316 ║ Ekpe Udoh                ║          74 ║ -2.17              ║
║  317 ║ Nate Robinson            ║         572 ║ -2.19              ║
║  318 ║ Malcolm Thomas           ║         144 ║ -2.21              ║
║  319 ║ Damjan Rudez             ║         763 ║ -2.29              ║
║  320 ║ Mike Miller              ║         368 ║ -2.30              ║
║  321 ║ Dion Waiters             ║        1029 ║ -2.33              ║
║  322 ║ Jordan Farmar            ║         690 ║ -2.36              ║
║  323 ║ Mo Williams              ║         935 ║ -2.37              ║
║  324 ║ Kyle Anderson            ║         449 ║ -2.41              ║
║  325 ║ D.J. Augustin            ║        1170 ║ -2.41              ║
║  326 ║ Reggie Bullock           ║         241 ║ -2.43              ║
║  327 ║ Kendall Marshall         ║         461 ║ -2.44              ║
║  328 ║ Tim Hardaway             ║        1064 ║ -2.44              ║
║  329 ║ J.R. Smith               ║         984 ║ -2.47              ║
║  330 ║ Jordan Clarkson          ║         275 ║ -2.47              ║
║  331 ║ John Salmons             ║         376 ║ -2.50              ║
║  332 ║ Anthony Bennett          ║         813 ║ -2.54              ║
║  333 ║ Ish Smith                ║         108 ║ -2.56              ║
║  334 ║ P.J. Hairston            ║         440 ║ -2.56              ║
║  335 ║ Brandon Davies           ║         809 ║ -2.58              ║
║  336 ║ C.J. Miles               ║         810 ║ -2.63              ║
║  337 ║ Cory Jefferson           ║         266 ║ -2.64              ║
║  338 ║ Joe Ingles               ║         828 ║ -2.70              ║
║  339 ║ Steve Novak              ║         107 ║ -2.73              ║
║  340 ║ Lance Thomas             ║         859 ║ -2.74              ║
║  341 ║ Justin Hamilton          ║         446 ║ -2.78              ║
║  342 ║ Dwight Powell            ║          18 ║ -2.79              ║
║  343 ║ Ben Gordon               ║         806 ║ -2.79              ║
║  344 ║ Robbie Hummel            ║         478 ║ -2.80              ║
║  345 ║ Kalin Lucas              ║          11 ║ -2.82              ║
║  346 ║ Kent Bazemore            ║         397 ║ -2.83              ║
║  347 ║ JaVale McGee             ║         324 ║ -2.84              ║
║  348 ║ Derrick Williams         ║         582 ║ -2.85              ║
║  349 ║ Perry Jones              ║         487 ║ -2.88              ║
║  350 ║ Dante Exum               ║         901 ║ -2.89              ║
║  351 ║ T.J. Warren              ║         215 ║ -2.91              ║
║  352 ║ Gerald Wallace           ║         193 ║ -2.91              ║
║  353 ║ Anthony Tolliver         ║         546 ║ -2.94              ║
║  354 ║ Andrew Wiggins           ║        1531 ║ -2.97              ║
║  355 ║ Joel Anthony             ║         120 ║ -3.05              ║
║  356 ║ Rodney Hood              ║         536 ║ -3.07              ║
║  357 ║ Erick Green              ║         120 ║ -3.09              ║
║  358 ║ Tony Snell               ║         365 ║ -3.10              ║
║  359 ║ Ramon Sessions           ║         816 ║ -3.10              ║
║  360 ║ Robert Sacre             ║         695 ║ -3.19              ║
║  361 ║ Nik Stauskas             ║         702 ║ -3.22              ║
║  362 ║ Jannero Pargo            ║         119 ║ -3.30              ║
║  363 ║ Will Cherry              ║         132 ║ -3.33              ║
║  364 ║ Ian Clark                ║          94 ║ -3.45              ║
║  365 ║ Thomas Robinson          ║         256 ║ -3.47              ║
║  366 ║ Joe Harris               ║         443 ║ -3.50              ║
║  367 ║ E'Twaun Moore            ║          78 ║ -3.51              ║
║  368 ║ Shavlik Randolph         ║         152 ║ -3.52              ║
║  369 ║ Francisco Garcia         ║         393 ║ -3.58              ║
║  370 ║ Zach LaVine              ║        1131 ║ -3.62              ║
║  371 ║ Jason Smith              ║         850 ║ -3.65              ║
║  372 ║ Luigi Datome             ║          23 ║ -3.67              ║
║  373 ║ Bruno Caboclo            ║          25 ║ -3.75              ║
║  374 ║ Gary Harris              ║         334 ║ -3.87              ║
║  375 ║ Chris Douglas-Roberts    ║         186 ║ -3.89              ║
║  376 ║ Tyler Ennis              ║         102 ║ -3.97              ║
║  377 ║ Ray McCallum             ║         231 ║ -4.02              ║
║  378 ║ Danny Granger            ║         220 ║ -4.02              ║
║  379 ║ Chris Johnson            ║         379 ║ -4.02              ║
║  380 ║ Udonis Haslem            ║         515 ║ -4.03              ║
║  381 ║ Archie Goodwin           ║         164 ║ -4.08              ║
║  382 ║ Cleanthony Early         ║         101 ║ -4.15              ║
║  383 ║ Louis Amundson           ║         119 ║ -4.18              ║
║  384 ║ Chase Budinger           ║         534 ║ -4.25              ║
║  385 ║ Jorge Gutierrez          ║          84 ║ -4.26              ║
║  386 ║ Troy Daniels             ║         212 ║ -4.37              ║
║  387 ║ Jeremy Evans             ║          58 ║ -4.45              ║
║  388 ║ Will Barton              ║         248 ║ -4.48              ║
║  389 ║ Nate Wolters             ║         196 ║ -4.49              ║
║  390 ║ Eric Moreland            ║           4 ║ -4.58              ║
║  391 ║ Spencer Dinwiddie        ║         168 ║ -4.60              ║
║  392 ║ Nazr Mohammed            ║          80 ║ -4.67              ║
║  393 ║ Shannon Brown            ║         166 ║ -4.73              ║
║  394 ║ Glenn Robinson           ║          94 ║ -4.83              ║
║  395 ║ Jason Maxiell            ║         357 ║ -4.84              ║
║  396 ║ Doug McDermott           ║         384 ║ -4.88              ║
║  397 ║ Nick Johnson             ║         301 ║ -4.89              ║
║  398 ║ Johnny O'Bryant          ║          43 ║ -5.02              ║
║  399 ║ Willie Green             ║         631 ║ -5.02              ║
║  400 ║ Furkan Aldemir           ║          20 ║ -5.03              ║
║  401 ║ Travis Wear              ║         412 ║ -5.07              ║
║  402 ║ Ronny Turiaf             ║          38 ║ -5.09              ║
║  403 ║ Alex Kirk                ║          11 ║ -5.17              ║
║  404 ║ Charlie Villanueva       ║         117 ║ -5.18              ║
║  405 ║ Nick Calathes            ║         111 ║ -5.22              ║
║  406 ║ JaKarr Sampson           ║         350 ║ -5.38              ║
║  407 ║ Xavier Henry             ║         170 ║ -5.41              ║
║  408 ║ David Lee                ║          14 ║ -5.49              ║
║  409 ║ Brandon Rush             ║         217 ║ -5.51              ║
║  410 ║ John Jenkins             ║          53 ║ -5.62              ║
║  411 ║ Cartier Martin           ║         181 ║ -5.64              ║
║  412 ║ Jimmer Fredette          ║         274 ║ -5.69              ║
║  413 ║ Austin Daye              ║         374 ║ -5.71              ║
║  414 ║ Brendan Haywood          ║          48 ║ -5.81              ║
║  415 ║ Jared Cunningham         ║         151 ║ -6.01              ║
║  416 ║ DeJuan Blair             ║          72 ║ -6.12              ║
║  417 ║ Jerami Grant             ║         213 ║ -6.17              ║
║  418 ║ Cameron Bairstow         ║          76 ║ -6.22              ║
║  419 ║ Noah Vonleh              ║          46 ║ -6.23              ║
║  420 ║ Justin Holiday           ║         114 ║ -6.31              ║
║  421 ║ Darius Miller            ║          83 ║ -6.52              ║
║  422 ║ Andrei Kirilenko         ║          69 ║ -6.66              ║
║  423 ║ Andre Dawkins            ║          24 ║ -6.85              ║
║  424 ║ Glen Rice                ║          84 ║ -6.86              ║
║  425 ║ Andrew Nicholson         ║         214 ║ -6.91              ║
║  426 ║ Ognjen Kuzmic            ║          70 ║ -7.07              ║
║  427 ║ Drew Gordon              ║         144 ║ -7.59              ║
║  428 ║ Markel Brown             ║          73 ║ -7.62              ║
║  429 ║ Mitch McGary             ║          14 ║ -9.22              ║
║  430 ║ Gal Mekel                ║          83 ║ -9.69              ║
║  431 ║ Zoran Dragic             ║           4 ║ -10.36             ║
║  432 ║ Julius Randle            ║          28 ║ -10.64             ║
║  433 ║ Grant Jerrett            ║          17 ║ -10.96             ║
║  434 ║ Devyn Marble             ║          10 ║ -12.51             ║
║  435 ║ Darius Morris            ║          27 ║ -12.95             ║
║  436 ║ Malcolm Lee              ║           4 ║ -13.15             ║
║  437 ║ Lucas Nogueira           ║          21 ║ -17.06             ║
║  438 ║ Russ Smith               ║          21 ║ -19.73             ║
║  439 ║ Clint Capela             ║          24 ║ -22.82             ║
╚══════╩══════════════════════════╩═════════════╩════════════════════╝
Last edited by permaximum on Sat Dec 20, 2014 11:03 am, edited 13 times in total.

nbacouchside
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Re: 2014-15 MAX Ratings

Post by nbacouchside » Wed Dec 03, 2014 10:37 pm

Is this supposed to approximate per-100 possession impact on scoring margin (ala +/- metrics) or are the units something else? Also how was it derived? If you didn't run a regression or other against RAPM (which would be impossible given lack of pbp for most of the seasons used) what was the dv used?

permaximum
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Re: 2014-15 MAX Ratings

Post by permaximum » Wed Dec 03, 2014 10:50 pm

Yep, per 100 poss on court impact.

Next year's team margin.

mystic
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Re: 2014-15 MAX Ratings

Post by mystic » Wed Dec 03, 2014 10:52 pm

So, it is completely worthless for Neil's test. Good job, good effort.

What is the blend? BPM plus WS/48 and then something extra?

permaximum
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Re: 2014-15 MAX Ratings

Post by permaximum » Wed Dec 03, 2014 11:01 pm

mystic wrote:So, it is completely worthless for Neil's test. Good job, good effort.
Worthless for Neil's test? How can we know if "other metrics" didn't use historical data? Besides, I didn't use 2013-14 AND 2014-15 data of any kind. So there are 1.5~ seasons for out-of-sample prediction test. If it's not enough, I can give 1973-1980 rating estimates for more out-of-sample prediction test.

Thanks for your kind words. However it wasn't much of an effort.

I won't reveal the blend details. Find it out. I gave you all the details you need.

mystic
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Re: 2014-15 MAX Ratings

Post by mystic » Wed Dec 03, 2014 11:29 pm

permaximum wrote: Worthless for Neil's test?
Yes, because it is in-sample. And using the work of others (just looking at those numbers, gives me the strong impression that BPM and WS/48 is included) ... well, to each his own. Also, BPM uses 2014 data, which means that season wouldn't be out-of-sample either.
permaximum wrote: How can we know if "other metrics" didn't use historical data?
Sure, we don't know that.
permaximum wrote: However it wasn't much of an effort.
I can imagine ... you are not giving the impression of a guy making an effort, rather as someone trying to cheat with the least amount of effort included. But congratulation, you fulfilled my prediction that someone will try exactly this.
permaximum wrote: I won't reveal the blend details.
So, you aren't even saying from whom you stole? Interesting, but not surprising.

Crow
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Re: 2014-15 MAX Ratings

Post by Crow » Wed Dec 03, 2014 11:37 pm

No real surprise dog ratings. MCW at -2.5 isn't really a surprise. Bosh at just plus is lower than I expected, but haven't look at his detailed stats recently.

permaximum
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Re: 2014-15 MAX Ratings

Post by permaximum » Wed Dec 03, 2014 11:45 pm

@mystic

Stole? Cheated? Welcome to real world my friend. We're not kind of making an ethical "do not touch that", "do not use that" contest with lots of restrictions. Use anything box-score related to come with a metric that's better at prediction. That's what we are doing. If you're not capable of that, you do not belong here. I thought you were a professional.

Why do you use box-score data? Did you track those stats yourself? Or why do you use advanced stats? Or possession formula? How do you come with metrics without looking at previous data? Why did DSMok1 used 14-year RAPM data? Why did people use blending approach in prediction contest? All of these mean they stole everything?

If I wanted to cheat, I would use previous years' data in the equation and xRAPM for 2000-2014.

BTW, there's still 2014-15 and 1973-..1979 seasons for out of sample pediction test. Which means OBPM and DBPM are in the blend. I can confirm that.

Anyways, I won't gain money from this thing. I don't get why there's so much hate in you.

Edit: Really, how will we know other metrics are in-sample or out-of-sample for the past seasons?

nbacouchside
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Re: 2014-15 MAX Ratings

Post by nbacouchside » Thu Dec 04, 2014 12:08 am

why are you two always bickering in every thread?

mystic
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Re: 2014-15 MAX Ratings

Post by mystic » Thu Dec 04, 2014 12:15 am

permaximum wrote:That's what we are doing.
So, everyone is doing that without having a reference to their sources? Not quite sure about that, but maybe I'm really the only honest user here (I don't think that this is true at all, and most of the users here would not take the work of others without mentioning their sources).
permaximum wrote: If I wanted to cheat
You cheated. You regressed the player data from y0 on to the results from y1 in order to get a good result in Neil's test.

permaximum
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Re: 2014-15 MAX Ratings

Post by permaximum » Thu Dec 04, 2014 12:23 am

Alright. I don't want to debate with you forever.

If that's a cheat, yes, I cheated. I should have used weighting approach decided by regression to include previous years' data in the metric and xRAPM to justify cheating more I guess.

I was honest as much as possible. I don't know what to say anymore. There are 6,5 seasons for out-of-sample test. 2013-14 isn't majorily in-sample in fact but okay let's call it in-sample too.

6.5 seasons are not enough?

Edit: Blend includes OBPM, DBPM, OWS, DWS and a few things more (they are not metrics) that help prediction enough and don't cause overfitting. WP, PER, ORTG, DRTG was useless so they are not in the metric.

Do you need anything else? Am I clear and open enough?

Statman
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Re: 2014-15 MAX Ratings

Post by Statman » Thu Dec 04, 2014 6:07 am

permaximum wrote:Alright. I don't want to debate with you forever.

If that's a cheat, yes, I cheated. I should have used weighting approach decided by regression to include previous years' data in the metric and xRAPM to justify cheating more I guess.

I was honest as much as possible. I don't know what to say anymore. There are 6,5 seasons for out-of-sample test. 2013-14 isn't majorily in-sample in fact but okay let's call it in-sample too.

6.5 seasons are not enough?

Edit: Blend includes OBPM, DBPM, OWS, DWS and a few things more (they are not metrics) that help prediction enough and don't cause overfitting. WP, PER, ORTG, DRTG was useless so they are not in the metric.

Do you need anything else? Am I clear and open enough?
I won't get on your case. The only problem I see is if you don't know how to perfectly calculate the OBPM, DBPM, OWS, DWS - what would you do if basketball-reference disappeared? How could you reproduce your work? Could you create the work for a totally different pro league?

mystic
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Re: 2014-15 MAX Ratings

Post by mystic » Thu Dec 04, 2014 9:03 am

permaximum wrote: Do you need anything else?
It is not about "what I would need", really. It is showing some respect for the work other people have done in the past and making it possible for you to do such a thing. Is that really too much to ask for? You used work of others heavily (as a regression shows, I can replicate 99.6% of the variance in your numbers with just BPM, WS/48, Age and a position value (based on PG = 1, SG = 2, etc. pp)), and then made it seem as if you did all the "hard work" (which relates to Statman's point here, btw). Also, proclaiming things like "ORTG, DRTG was useless so they are not in the metric" is just ignorant and shows a complete lack of interest in the work which went into "your" metric. OWS and DWS are based on ORtg (= points produced per 100 individual possessions) and DRtg respectively, thus it is in the metric. That is some basic knowledge you probably should have picked up before even starting.

And last but not least there was a lengthy debate about in-sample and out-of-sample in the BPM thread and you made several posts there. It is beyond me that you didn't even consider "your work" to be cheating. What you did is like getting the answers for the math test beforehand and then learn those by heart. Getting a good grade in that test doesn't make you good at math, it makes you a good cheater. Yeah, maybe others also sent datasets in which a similar thing was done, but I seriously hope that this is not what "all people are doing". Maybe I'm naive regarding this ... oh well.

v-zero
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Re: 2014-15 MAX Ratings

Post by v-zero » Thu Dec 04, 2014 9:16 am

It is pretty clear to me that the only way we will get a 'fair' test is if each model is fully explained and the means by which to reproduce it is given to Neil. Neil would then have to manually reproduce each model from data not provided by the contestants. Anybody unwilling to provide such information cannot be included in the contest (that would include me, as I do not want to share my fitting methods). Even this will not fully resolve the issue, as model formulation would still be based on possibly in-sample data.

Whilst a meta-model such as permaximum's is an interesting thing, it doesn't provide the kind of insight that a model from first principles can provide.

mystic
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Re: 2014-15 MAX Ratings

Post by mystic » Thu Dec 04, 2014 10:11 am

v-zero wrote:It is pretty clear to me that the only way we will get a 'fair' test is if each model is fully explained and the means by which to reproduce it is given to Neil.
Unfortunately, that's how it looks.
v-zero wrote: Anybody unwilling to provide such information cannot be included in the contest (that would include me, as I do not want to share my fitting methods).
Yeah, that would likely take me out as well. Although, I don't have a problem with revealing the method itself (given the fact that I sent results from an older version of my metric anyway), but the ratings are created within a tool based on 2.5k lines F95 source code. I can't imagine someone is willing to extract the complete procedure to recreate the metric or being willing to work through those handwritten equations. :)
v-zero wrote: Whilst a meta-model such as permaximum's is an interesting thing, it doesn't provide the kind of insight that a model from first principles can provide.
That is another issue with the approach here, let alone that likely a lot of people done something similar anyway. I also don't think that it is a big secret that a blended metric is doing better than a single metric.

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