Changing the Detroit Pistons

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Crow
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Changing the Detroit Pistons

Post by Crow » Sun Dec 07, 2014 9:21 pm

Trade / drop some of the key players or the vast majority of team? Fixable or has Stan permanently lost team already? Fire Stan the exec, coach or both? Now or next summer?

bondom343
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Re: Changing the Detroit Pistons

Post by bondom343 » Mon Dec 08, 2014 5:13 am

To me, he should have done more already, and is stuck now. I would have moved Smith (rumors said the Kings were interested and would have given something around smaller deals/expirings), resigned Monroe and tried to trade Jennings in season. He kept Smith and let Monroe sign the QO, I think Monroe gets outta Dodge after this year and Smith's value is completely gone as far as trades go. Now they're stuck for the season unless someone else makes a dumb move and takes Smith.

Crow
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Re: Changing the Detroit Pistons

Post by Crow » Mon Dec 08, 2014 5:27 pm

Playoff prospect is very low. I haven't followed too closely but his talking about player errors seems far above normal and largely separated himself from it, with just the occasional obvious I have to do better.
It has all gone about as bad as it could with him having total power. So far. What is his goal right now, besides single win to break the streak? Was the failure shared by advanced analytics or largely apart from the application or intelligent application of stat based analytics?

How much and how well are lineups being studied? All of top 5 used over 25 minutes are negative and 8 of top 12. 97 lineups used. Almost half performing at -10 to -400 per 100 possessions. Have the coaching choices of lineups gotten any better based on past results or better for next results? Using B-R, the mild positive lineup with the most minutes appeared for first time sometime after 10 games but the two most positive over 25 minutes by far completely disappeared after 10 games. Small samples but what other better basis do they have to decide that is working?

xkonk
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Re: Changing the Detroit Pistons

Post by xkonk » Tue Dec 09, 2014 12:41 am

I noted a few times in the offseason that the Pistons should become a fringe playoff team simply by adding Van Gundy if the coach RAPM score is to be believed. But instead of adding SVG's 3 points to essentially the same team (they changed Bynum and Stuckey into Butler and Augustin), the Pistons have lost about 3 points. Given how young the team is, that's a huge step back.

bondom343
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Re: Changing the Detroit Pistons

Post by bondom343 » Tue Dec 09, 2014 5:12 am

Smith's minutes need to drop, and Meeks has been hurt which should in theory help the shooting.

Mike G
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Re: Changing the Detroit Pistons

Post by Mike G » Tue Dec 09, 2014 10:20 am

bondom343 wrote:Smith's minutes need to drop, and Meeks has been hurt which should in theory help the shooting.
Jodie Meeks' career TS% is .571, and last year it was .601 -- he had ORtg of 112, 23 pts/100 poss, including 2.3 3FG on .401 3fg%.

These are all better (or much better) than the team averages. How would his absence help their shooting?

EDIT -- Upon further review, I guess you meant his return should help their shooting?

Mike G
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Re: Changing the Detroit Pistons

Post by Mike G » Tue Dec 09, 2014 12:24 pm

Here's a summary of Pistons from last year to this year.
The top 8 guys shown were with the team last year, and they account for 79% of last year's minutes (%Min)

Code: Select all

. Pistons         - %Min -    - eW/484 -    - PER -      - WS/48 -     - BPM -
.  2015          2014  2015   2014  2015   2014  2015   2014   2015   2014  2015
Josh Smith       .69   .69    1.01  1.30   14.1  13.5   .020  -.004    -.6    .4
Brandon Jennings .69   .53    1.05  1.28   15.6  17.5   .068   .103    -.3    .4
Greg Monroe      .68   .56    1.29  1.35   18.1  17.1   .106   .089     .2  -1.4
Andre Drummond   .66   .61    1.63  1.41   22.6  16.5   .182   .079    1.3  -4.1

Kyle Singler     .59   .49     .40   .25   11.8  10.7   .090   .090    -.2  -1.0
Ke Caldwell-Pope .40   .70     .20   .36    9.4   9.3   .055   .027   -2.1  -2.4
Jonas Jerebko    .19   .25     .70   .55   13.4  14.6   .092   .122   -2.0   -.3
Luigi Datome     .06   .01     .33   .88    8.0  12.1  -.023  -.064   -6.4  -4.3

.  tot           .79   .77   
                     
Caron Butler     .36   .50     .75   .05   12.2   7.6   .062   .041   -2.1  -3.6
D.J. Augustin    .49   .46    1.26   .63   16.2  11.9   .154   .038     .4  -4.0
Cartier Martin   .22   .08     .54  -.34   11.0   2.0   .070  -.063   -1.2  -7.8
Spencer Dinwiddie      .06           .27          9.6          .046         -6.1
Joel Anthony     .05   .06    -.01   .01    8.1   7.1   .044   .066   -4.5  -3.6
.  tot           .22   .23
Note the vast spread in Josh Smith assessments. BPM says he was just below-avg last year and is above avg this year. eWins likes him even better, and agrees that he's done more this year.
WS says he's gone from terrible to ultra-terrible.
He's cut down on his 3's, and he gets to the FT line more -- but he can't hit them (.477).
His TS% is an incredible .410, for a guy with 25.6 Usg%. His Ast% is at a career high 27.2 -- almost double last year's.
Both BPM and eW reward versatility. He's one of 2 players in the league (w. MCW) averaging 13-7-4; and not since LeBron in '09 has anyone done this AND had more (Stl+Blk) per game. Well, Smoove has done it a few times.
http://bkref.com/tiny/6R9A4

Jennings looks better on all 4 measures, but his MPG have been stripped from 34 to 30 this year. He has career best TS%, FTr, Ast%
KCP seems to have picked up the minutes here and from others -- from 20 to 34 this year. Yet PER, WS, and BPM say he has not improved.

Crow
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Re: Changing the Detroit Pistons

Post by Crow » Tue Dec 09, 2014 3:07 pm

None of the 5 guys GM Van Gundy brought in (besides Meeks) has performed well. Most of the returnees are playing worse or still bad.

At the team 4 four factor level on offense and defense it is not as bad by count- 3 improvements, 5 declines. But the declines in own efg% and offensive rebounding are the biggest changes.

bondom343
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Re: Changing the Detroit Pistons

Post by bondom343 » Wed Dec 10, 2014 7:20 am

Mike G wrote:
bondom343 wrote:Smith's minutes need to drop, and Meeks has been hurt which should in theory help the shooting.
Jodie Meeks' career TS% is .571, and last year it was .601 -- he had ORtg of 112, 23 pts/100 poss, including 2.3 3FG on .401 3fg%.

These are all better (or much better) than the team averages. How would his absence help their shooting?

EDIT -- Upon further review, I guess you meant his return should help their shooting?
Yep, meant his return should help. Not much, but anything is something I guess.

Crow
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Re: Changing the Detroit Pistons

Post by Crow » Wed Dec 10, 2014 1:13 pm

Van Gundy seemed to open door to pulling the plug, but he doesn't really want to admit it has come that far already. Owner has to be pissed.

Statman
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Re: Changing the Detroit Pistons

Post by Statman » Wed Dec 10, 2014 3:58 pm

Mike G wrote:Here's a summary of Pistons from last year to this year.
The top 8 guys shown were with the team last year, and they account for 79% of last year's minutes (%Min)

Code: Select all

. Pistons         - %Min -    - eW/484 -    - PER -      - WS/48 -     - BPM -
.  2015          2014  2015   2014  2015   2014  2015   2014   2015   2014  2015
Josh Smith       .69   .69    1.01  1.30   14.1  13.5   .020  -.004    -.6    .4
Brandon Jennings .69   .53    1.05  1.28   15.6  17.5   .068   .103    -.3    .4
Greg Monroe      .68   .56    1.29  1.35   18.1  17.1   .106   .089     .2  -1.4
Andre Drummond   .66   .61    1.63  1.41   22.6  16.5   .182   .079    1.3  -4.1

Kyle Singler     .59   .49     .40   .25   11.8  10.7   .090   .090    -.2  -1.0
Ke Caldwell-Pope .40   .70     .20   .36    9.4   9.3   .055   .027   -2.1  -2.4
Jonas Jerebko    .19   .25     .70   .55   13.4  14.6   .092   .122   -2.0   -.3
Luigi Datome     .06   .01     .33   .88    8.0  12.1  -.023  -.064   -6.4  -4.3

.  tot           .79   .77   
                     
Caron Butler     .36   .50     .75   .05   12.2   7.6   .062   .041   -2.1  -3.6
D.J. Augustin    .49   .46    1.26   .63   16.2  11.9   .154   .038     .4  -4.0
Cartier Martin   .22   .08     .54  -.34   11.0   2.0   .070  -.063   -1.2  -7.8
Spencer Dinwiddie      .06           .27          9.6          .046         -6.1
Joel Anthony     .05   .06    -.01   .01    8.1   7.1   .044   .066   -4.5  -3.6
.  tot           .22   .23
Note the vast spread in Josh Smith assessments. BPM says he was just below-avg last year and is above avg this year. eWins likes him even better, and agrees that he's done more this year.
WS says he's gone from terrible to ultra-terrible.
He's cut down on his 3's, and he gets to the FT line more -- but he can't hit them (.477).
His TS% is an incredible .410, for a guy with 25.6 Usg%. His Ast% is at a career high 27.2 -- almost double last year's.
Both BPM and eW reward versatility. He's one of 2 players in the league (w. MCW) averaging 13-7-4; and not since LeBron in '09 has anyone done this AND had more (Stl+Blk) per game. Well, Smoove has done it a few times.
http://bkref.com/tiny/6R9A4
Man, I wish we could find out what would happen to Josh Smith's career if he just plain stopped shooting - outside of fast break dunks, put backs, & the occasional wide open three to try to keep the D honest. He just decided to go all Rodman - focus solely on rebounding (especially offensively), creating havoc on defense, & spacing well & getting teammates involved on offense (drive & dunk or drive & dish when the occasional good match up arises). He could be a longer, much better rebounding & passing Bruce Bowen. It just seems like he could become a very valuable player then, especially when eventually teamed up with more efficient high usage guys.

But, it'll never happen.

Mike G
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Re: Changing the Detroit Pistons

Post by Mike G » Wed Dec 10, 2014 4:14 pm

Josh Smith has 6 dunks on the year, about one every 120 minutes.
http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... hjo03.html
That's just 2.5% of his attempts; down from 6.2% last year and 11.3% in his Atlanta years.
He gets 29% of his shots inside 3', but only hits .564, which is .207 down from 2 yrs ago.
Career high (by far) 34% of his shots are in the 3-10' range; making those at a .321 clip.
His FT% is .489 so far, some .150 below career avg.

Statman
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Re: Changing the Detroit Pistons

Post by Statman » Wed Dec 10, 2014 4:22 pm

Looking it up - how did Mike Woodson get Josh Smith to only take 7 threes ALL SEASON in '09-10. He took 87 the year before under Woodson, and 157 threes the following year under Larry Drew. The team became 9 games worse the year he increased his three output by 150 from the previous season.

Despite heading towards his prime - Josh Smith's FGA per possession was declining under Woodson every year while his TS% rose. Then, BAM, Larry Drew takes over - & it appears Smith gets the green light that he never relinquished - & his TS% plummeted (after an ok green light year 1 under Drew) during what should have been his prime years.

Maybe Detroit should call Woodson & have him convince Josh Smith to go the Iguodala route & stop shooting & focus elsewhere - thus greatly increasing his value in the minds of coaches, gms, & analysts. Smith may shoot himself outta the NBA within a couple years at this rate - despite the diversity he has shown statistically in his game outside of shooting. Coaches & GMs now better know how hard it is to be efficient on offense with Antoine Walker types who can't stop dominating the ball letting the jumpers fly.

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