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If I find the time tomorrow, I might see how my projections saw Dallas & Boston finishing the season with the before the trade rosters, & where the projections see them now.Crow wrote:Rondo moving.
Who next to a contender? Trade action always seems too low to me. GMs trying to get a plus deal and not seeing enough of the value of "fair deals" in abstract that might be winners based on context.
I HATE seeing Wright leave Dallas - I never understood why that guy couldn't get more court time. But, maybe Greg Smith will now see more court time for the Mavs - my projections like him despite his limited minutes this season.
My projections thought little of Crowder before this season, & Nelson has been worse than my about 5% below NBA average projection. Addition by subtraction there.
Losing Wright & draft picks though - that hurts. Rondo better help defensively somehow, because it is almost impossible to be more efficient offensively than the Mav team before trade. I can't imagine the Mavs being better after trade, unless Smith or someone else puts up Wright level production - which would be darn near impossible.
I hope I find the time, I'm curious how the numbers look. It'll probably look a bit like a wash for this season.
If the Celts are smart - they'll give Wright > 30 mpg, at least.
FWIW, in May my model had Wright as the 33rd best career WAR projection (based on optimum possible minutes) of all current NBAers. Rondo was 61st. http://hoopsnerd.com/wp-content/uploads ... reers.xlsx
If I were a Celtics fan, I'd be quite happy personally. As a Mavs fan, I'm not keen at losing Wright & picks at all - even though Rondo should fit in decently with the roster. Still can't imagine this team getting to the finals - even if somehow Chandler & Dirk & Rondo stay healthy all year. So, still not getting to the finals AND sacrificing future is tough for me to swallow.
But, maybe everyone stays healthy, Rondo fits PERFECTLY, & Greg Smith becomes Wright lite production/playing time wise, & the Mavs shock everyone to win it all. This trade was like buying a lottery ticket, can't win if you don't play I guess.
Foubd this article which has dome interesting summary findings about trade history: https://statofmind.wordpress.com/2014/0 ... nba-teams/