Front Porch (for casual chat)

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Crow
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Front Porch (for casual chat)

Post by Crow » Wed Dec 10, 2014 5:46 am

Another experiment. Threads too intense or not interesting? Just want casual chat? Well, you can here.

Crow
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Re: Front Porch (for casual chat)

Post by Crow » Wed Dec 10, 2014 5:59 am

Not much positive to say about Phil the Exec. yet.

Nobody has qued off Raptors "We the North" yert with "we the south,y'all."
Candidates? Atl, SA, Hou, Cha.

Will NJ move a member of big 3? Downgrade, lateral? Can't see an upgrade.

Who is rumored to be buying ATL?

Is Jimmy Butler as best player tip case / another for taking an athletic wing and playing / showing patience?

Any chance David West moves?

What will MJ say when Kobe passes him on reg season pts?

I see the rcord but how have the Clips looked to you lately in terms of being a true title contender or not?

Crow
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Re: Front Porch (for casual chat)

Post by Crow » Wed Dec 10, 2014 6:18 am

Who here is a big college hoop head? What do you think of Kentucky, especially the lesser praised offense? Main challenger? Which UK player do you want / are hoping for your NBA team?

Spurs the favorite, sneaky fav, or sneaky underdog?

Who here besides Evan are big time Warriors?

Any thoughts from Lakers fans about this year or beyond?

Phoenix changes from last season? Too many? Not much impact? Or does something stick out to hou besides Frye gone, Bledsoe healthy?

bondom343
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Re: Front Porch (for casual chat)

Post by bondom343 » Wed Dec 10, 2014 7:18 am

You know I'm another OKC fan, feel a bit better within 3 games of the 8 seed. As for college ball, I watch, but am a Penn State alum/fan, the team looks better than usual, maybe NIT this season. I

Crow
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Re: Front Porch (for casual chat)

Post by Crow » Wed Dec 10, 2014 1:10 pm

Yeah, just moving back into the reasonable range to make playoffs with perhaps a small buffer.

DSMok1
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Re: Front Porch (for casual chat)

Post by DSMok1 » Wed Dec 10, 2014 1:52 pm

I'm an OKC fan also, and OU fan; I'm from Norman, OK. I'm comfortable that the Thunder will make the playoffs; just not sure if the lack of home court will be their undoing.
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Statman
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Re: Front Porch (for casual chat)

Post by Statman » Wed Dec 10, 2014 2:16 pm

Crow wrote:Who here is a big college hoop head? What do you of Kentucky? Main challenger? Which UK player do you want / are hoping for your NBA team?
I'm a huge college hoops guy, never miss a minute of my alma mater Arizona. Any big college hoops guys might want to follow my ratings this year, get a leg up on what relative unknowns to watch: http://hoopsnerd.com/?page_id=552

I expect to not only update college player rankings this year (probably once a week), & to finish the historical ratings (back to '97) - but also update NBA year by year career projections for the college guys based on age & statistical skillsets (adjusted for everything) probably twice a month or so. Will start in probably less than 3 weeks. Can't wait.

So related, UK is obviously loaded with NBA level athleticism - but not unbeatable imo. I'm very curious how their guys will rate out & project for the NBA. For fun, I expect to project all their players for the NBA next season, then project backwards to this season for the NBA - so I can do a write up about a fake game between the Sixers & UK, box score & such included. My metrics probably would have the Sixers crushing them (like a 15 to 20 point spread?), but who knows until I run them.
Crow wrote:Who here besides Evan are big time Warriors?
It's hard, if they stay healthy, not to be big on the Warriors. I loved Draymond Green in college - I have a soft spot for SF/PF hybrids that rebound AND pass. I liked Royce White's game (projected almost as well as Draymond Green for the NBA, solid), I like Kyle Anderson's game & thought he was a Spur steal in the draft.

Statman
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Re: Front Porch (for casual chat)

Post by Statman » Wed Dec 10, 2014 2:18 pm

DSMok1 wrote:I'm an OKC fan also, and OU fan; I'm from Norman, OK. I'm comfortable that the Thunder will make the playoffs; just not sure if the lack of home court will be their undoing.
As a Mav fan, I hope OKC isn't completely gelled by playoff time. But, I really hope they are healthy - I can't help but really like Durant & Westbrook & want to see them play at their best.

mystic
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Re: Front Porch (for casual chat)

Post by mystic » Wed Dec 10, 2014 2:21 pm

DSMok1 wrote:I'm an OKC fan also, and OU fan; I'm from Norman, OK. I'm comfortable that the Thunder will make the playoffs; just not sure if the lack of home court will be their undoing.
The interesting thing to me is that their presented playing level so far in the 4 games with Durant is "just" +1.2. When we compare that to the Suns, Kings and Pelicans, they showed to be worse. Including an analysis about the strength of the remaining schedule, with that kind of playing level the Thunder are expected to stay even behind those 3 teams, only the Nuggets would end up below the Thunder from the teams currently above them. Well, it were just 4 games and we can expect the Thunder to play better in future games, but even then, given that the Kings have a pretty easy schedule for the rest of the season in comparison to the league average while the Thunder have a tougher than average remaining schedule, and taking into account, that the Kings with Cousins played substantially better than without him, right now the Thunder are projected by my estimates as missing the playoffs even when they have a +6 level for the rest of the season. The Kings would be expected to win 50 games, with Cousins will missing the next 5, while the Thunder would be expected to win 49 overall at a +6 level for the rest of their games. The Suns came out of this with 48, the Pelicans with just 44 wins.

Though, Kings might have severly overachieved in the first games with Cousins; comparing them with my prediction would point to this and the expectation for the remainder should be rather based on the average between their performance level and the prediction. If that's the case, the Kings end up with 43 wins instead of 50, while the Thunder would even get an extra win and end up with 50 (they play the Kings 3 times and would then be expected to win one of the road games against them instead of losing both). Suns and Pelicans would also gain another win each at the costs of the Kings.

Crow
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Re: Front Porch (for casual chat)

Post by Crow » Wed Dec 10, 2014 6:39 pm

It will be an interesting race as you indicate, with at least 3 different possible outcomes.

Crow
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Re: Front Porch (for casual chat)

Post by Crow » Wed Dec 10, 2014 9:29 pm

Westbrook at 40% usage. If continues near that would be highest ever. No one has been above 35% in reg. season and won title then.http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... by=usg_pct

BigLeagueInsights
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Re: Front Porch (for casual chat)

Post by BigLeagueInsights » Wed Dec 10, 2014 9:52 pm

As a Rockets fan, I am not sure what to think thus far. Houston is definitely improved on both ends, and have played way beyond expectations without Dwight, TJones, and Beverley for much of the season.

Ariza is a big upgrade over Parsons so far, and DMO has really taken a leap in his game. But I'm looking at the playoffs in terror -- I think the Rox 3 point shooting gives us a chance against anyone in 7. Making 20 3s and playing good defense gives you a chance in any game, but the 3s have to go down.

The offense with Dwight has exhibited confusion thus far, and who knows how healthy he will be when he returns. It's likely his knee won't improve over the course of the season.

Warriors, Grizzlies and Spurs look like the best of the West (and the NBA), and Portland is improved from last season. Dallas will be scary come playoff time. OKC looks like they will grab the 8 seed. So although the Rox are much improved, I'm not sure how they can beat 2 of these teams in the playoffs?

Oh Chris Bosh, if only you were in Houston.

Crow
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Re: Front Porch (for casual chat)

Post by Crow » Wed Dec 10, 2014 10:33 pm


bondom343
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Re: Front Porch (for casual chat)

Post by bondom343 » Thu Dec 11, 2014 6:32 am

Cool, lots of OKC fans! You guys are more than welcome over on RealGM, I mod the OKC board and the player comparisons board gets a ton of stats talk, its why I came here too.

Statman wrote:
DSMok1 wrote:I'm an OKC fan also, and OU fan; I'm from Norman, OK. I'm comfortable that the Thunder will make the playoffs; just not sure if the lack of home court will be their undoing.
As a Mav fan, I hope OKC isn't completely gelled by playoff time. But, I really hope they are healthy - I can't help but really like Durant & Westbrook & want to see them play at their best.
I've become a real fan of Dirk, really wish the best for Dallas as well.

@ Crow: I'd expect Westbrook's usage to drop a bit when KD's minutes restriction is lifted. To me he hasn't looked the same since his return, but Russ has been pretty good outside of a few extra TOs. I expect that usage to drop quite a bit given he's only played a handful or so games, and the first 1-2 were without KD and the rest with only 30 minutes max KD.

Crow
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Re: Front Porch (for casual chat)

Post by Crow » Thu Dec 11, 2014 8:29 am

Probably drops some but curious to see how much and whether it is above or below the 35% line or his previous high.

I was active at realgm during Sonics era, rare since but might stop by occasionally. Just can't do everything.

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