On this page --
https://www.basketball-reference.com/le ... _prob.html
-- I see at #12 Tony Parker with 94% chance and Pau Gasol at 93%, #13
Then it's a drop to Anthony Davis 78%. And he's just getting started.
Kevin Love and Kyrie Irving are in the 60's, Griffin and Aldridge in the 50's, all still very strong.
Meanwhile, Larry Foust is given 94% chance for his work in the '50s: 8-time allstar, led the league in FG%, total rebounds, WS/48 (twice), a 1st and 2nd all-NBA -- but not in the Hall.
Jack Sikma at 87% -- 7 straight ASG, a title in '79, a C who led the league in FT% (.922), twice led in D-Reb and D-WS.
Others not in :
.84 - Billups
.79 - Tim Hardaway
.76 - Marion
.73 - Amare`
.71 - Larry Costello, another 50's-60s guy with 6 ASG, twice led the league in FT%
I don't know when b-r.com last updated their formula for HOF likelihood.
And back to that top 12 or 13: Carmelo at 98%, Dwight 99% ?