Modeling the free agent market operation

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Crow
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Modeling the free agent market operation

Post by Crow » Thu Jul 02, 2015 3:38 am

Lots of folks rate and value players based on those ratings. Has anyone done a deep and public analysis of the free market operation, especially with respect to timing (value perf. /$ received day 1 vs 3, 5, 10, 20, 50 and by player type and context)? I know I have asked before. Don't remember hearing about much done to look at.

I'd argue that teams could justify spending multiple millions on such a model. Who has done even $500,000 of work on this? 2 teams, 5, 10? I am guessing it is in the low range.

Looking quickly I see this http://www.sloansportsconference.com/wp ... -Model.pdf
Does it give away much? Seems like a starting point.

and a reference to a presentation at UNC by Nik Oza. Nik, is a link to this available?

Anybody have other links?

I'll search back threads more later but didn't see anything detailed immediately.

A good model would know all the cba rules and past history of all teams, players and probably agents.

nbo2
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Re: Modeling the free agent market operation

Post by nbo2 » Tue Jul 07, 2015 2:56 am

and a reference to a presentation at UNC by Nik Oza. Nik, is a link to this available?
I haven't looked into the value of timing free agency and didn't present at UNC, but I think this is the presentation you were talking about: https://www.dropbox.com/s/crh524sjyioly ... n.pdf?dl=0

It wasn't deep analysis by any stretch, but the takeaways were basically that it's so rare to lure a franchise-altering free agent away unless you are in a large market and/or have other superstars that teams should focus on drafting well, acquiring assets and managing the cap so that there is a possibility to trade for a superstar if one suddenly becomes available. In other words, do what the Rockets, Celtics and 76ers do. To a certain extent, it seems that the Suns have employed this strategy as well, though they have not been as lucky as the Rockets with the outcome. And though the Cavs were of course in a unique situation and lucked into three number 1 overall picks, their cap management during the previous few years did put them in a position to benefit from LeBron's unexpected decision during the summer of 2015.

Crow
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Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:10 pm

Re: Modeling the free agent market operation

Post by Crow » Tue Jul 07, 2015 4:52 pm

Thanks for the reply and link. Good strategic level perspective.

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