2015-16 Team win projections

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Mike G
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Re: 2015-16 Team win projections

Post by Mike G » Thu Dec 24, 2015 11:09 am

Reshuffling at the top:

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AJ   5.65      rsm   6.40      nr    7.51
Cal  5.74      Crow  6.42      EZ    7.71
DF   5.75      fpli  6.46      Dan   7.75
tzu  5.78      MG    6.61      taco  7.90
KF   5.83      yoop  6.64      DrP   7.94
km   5.91      itca  6.79      15py  9.61
DSM  6.13      BD    6.87         
bbs  6.23      snd   6.90         

kmedved
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Re: 2015-16 Team win projections

Post by kmedved » Thu Dec 24, 2015 1:50 pm

Christmas break is a good time for an update:

I've added a column tracking each team's remaining average opponent SRS. These are adjusted (regressed) SRSs, so they're not quite as extreme as simply adding up the remaining schedule opponents. I've also added in a home court advantage, which makes a big difference for some teams (Miami has played 18 home games and only 9 road so far).

Rockets are in for a rough stretch:

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Statman
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Re: 2015-16 Team win projections

Post by Statman » Thu Dec 24, 2015 11:18 pm

Wow, like that last one - since I rank so much higher than any of the recent previous posts.

Mike G
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Re: 2015-16 Team win projections

Post by Mike G » Fri Dec 25, 2015 12:59 am

Congratulations. Relative to b-r.com, you're not looking as well as in the blend of several.
Of course, as the season progresses, all these forecasts converge on actual wins.
Since the E and W are suddenly equal, we should expect better predictions from plus-minus systems. In boxscore metrics, East players unexpectedly got better.

caliban
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Re: 2015-16 Team win projections

Post by caliban » Sun Dec 27, 2015 8:33 pm

great additions kmedved

---

AJbaskets increasing the lead in a week that had the field all over the place

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BasketDork
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Re: 2015-16 Team win projections

Post by BasketDork » Sun Dec 27, 2015 9:20 pm

Two solid weeks in a row, ( this week, only AJBaskets & Yooper gained more ground.) I'm hoping to keep the momentum going.
The Bearded Geek

Mike G
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Re: 2015-16 Team win projections

Post by Mike G » Mon Dec 28, 2015 12:34 pm

The Clippers have not been the greatest disappointment, but we were all guessing 6-14 wins better than their current projections.

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.                          2015-16                    2014-15
. Clippers      Min   PER   WS/48  BPM   e484      PER   WS/48  BPM   e484
Blake Griffin  1048   23.7  .179   4.5   2.12      22.8  .183   4.1   2.11
DeAndre Jordan 1017   19.5  .193   2.6   1.70      21.0  .217   4.1   1.60
Chris Paul      844   23.7  .212   4.8   1.92      26.0  .270   7.5   2.30
Jamal Crawford  784   10.7  .033  -4.1    .54      16.6  .102  -1.0   1.25
J.J. Redick     732   17.4  .146   0.6    .97      16.2  .134   0.7   1.05

Austin Rivers   618    7.9  .016  -3.2    .21      10.2  .046  -2.4    .46
L Stephenson    503    7.5  .020  -2.6    .26  Cha  8.8 -.026  -3.5    .62
Paul Pierce     479    6.4  .014  -3.7    .05  Was 15.2  .138   1.5   1.09
Wesley Johnson  477   12.6  .098   0.2    .39  LAL 11.1  .037  -1.5    .45
Josh Smith      413   14.2  .045   0.5    .94  Hou 14.9  .048   1.0   1.27

L Mbah a Moute  355    6.9  .048  -2.7   -.09  Phl 10.6  .027  -3.2    .53
Pablo Prigioni  134    8.8  .055  -0.5    .12  Hou 12.2  .092  -0.5    .38
Cole Aldrich     62   15.0  .103   0.5    .73  NYK 18.1  .107   0.9   1.28
eW/484 are a few days outdated.
The 6 returnees from last year have gone down avg 1.6 in PER, .029 ws/48, and 1.3 in BPM
The 6 new guys avg drops are 3.0 in PER, .014 WS/48, .7 BPM

caliban
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Re: 2015-16 Team win projections

Post by caliban » Sun Jan 03, 2016 12:15 pm

Vegas winning in a week that had a very heavy regression towards preseason expectations. AJbaskets slowly turning into a Akakabuto sized bear at the mountaintop with tarrazu and DSmok1 closing in. Myself and kmedved falling.

oh, and Basketball Dork with the 3rd solid week in a row climbing the ladder like Petyr Baelish.

Side note; Think I'll start decreasing the weight of the top5 starting February or so.
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Mike G
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Re: 2015-16 Team win projections

Post by Mike G » Mon Jan 04, 2016 4:02 pm

At about 42% of the season, avg errors relative to b-r.com forecast.

Code: Select all

tzu  5.24      bbs   5.91      snd   6.35
AJ   5.25      yoop  5.97      itca  6.43
DF   5.48      fpli  5.99      EZ    7.05
Cal  5.50      MG    6.17      nr    7.06
DSM  5.51      Crow  6.19      Dan   7.54
KF   5.56      rsm   6.25      DrP   7.57
km   5.73      BD    6.31      taco  7.57
Likely to win the West in playoffs: SAS 49%, GSW 38%, OKC 10.5%
http://www.basketball-reference.com/fri ... f_prob.cgi

Dr Positivity
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Re: 2015-16 Team win projections

Post by Dr Positivity » Tue Jan 05, 2016 4:49 am

Here's to Ish Smith turning the Sixers into a .500 team the rest of the season and making my 33 W prediction manageable. A man can dream.

Mike G
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Re: 2015-16 Team win projections

Post by Mike G » Tue Jan 05, 2016 1:44 pm

It's funny -- whenever I see Sixers highlights, there's Ish Smith. But he's shooting .430, with 30% Usg. His WS/48 is negative, his BPM is sub-replacement level, and his PER is 15.9
Oh, his ORtg-DRtg is 92-108 in 6 Phl games. This after a 122-104 night.

nbacouchside
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Re: 2015-16 Team win projections

Post by nbacouchside » Tue Jan 05, 2016 8:57 pm

Mike G wrote:At about 42% of the season, avg errors relative to b-r.com forecast.

Code: Select all

tzu  5.24      bbs   5.91      snd   6.35
AJ   5.25      yoop  5.97      itca  6.43
DF   5.48      fpli  5.99      EZ    7.05
Cal  5.50      MG    6.17      nr    7.06
DSM  5.51      Crow  6.19      Dan   7.54
KF   5.56      rsm   6.25      DrP   7.57
km   5.73      BD    6.31      taco  7.57
Likely to win the West in playoffs: SAS 49%, GSW 38%, OKC 10.5%
http://www.basketball-reference.com/fri ... f_prob.cgi
Going tumbling down the rankings. Womp womp.

kmedved
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Re: 2015-16 Team win projections

Post by kmedved » Wed Jan 06, 2016 4:15 pm

Update:

Image

The aggregate of the top 5 is now handily winning in RMSE.

BasketDork
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Re: 2015-16 Team win projections

Post by BasketDork » Sat Jan 09, 2016 2:23 pm

Why am I doing so much crappier in kmedved's rankings than in Mike G.'s or caliban's ?
The Bearded Geek

Mike G
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Re: 2015-16 Team win projections

Post by Mike G » Sat Jan 09, 2016 11:09 pm

I'm just using b-r.com's forecast. The forecasts will of course converge as the season progresses.

Code: Select all

AJ   5.06      fpli  5.86      BD   6.33
Cal  5.32      Crow  5.92      snd  6.46
tzu  5.40      rsm   5.97      nr   6.99
DF   5.43      bbs   5.98      EZ   7.16
KF   5.64      yoop  6.12      Dan  7.56
km   5.66      MG    6.22      taco 7.58
DSM  5.66      itca  6.32      DrP  7.62

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